Will the Rays Take Advantage of their Chance to Sell?

It’s been a bit of a weird year for the Tampa Bay Rays, who currently are 47-48, a game under .500 and 10 games out of first place in the AL East.

The club is forever underrated, but these Rays always find a way to be in the thick of things by season’s end. This year, things feel different. Despite the fact that their roster is star-studded on both offense and the pitching side of things, they just aren’t getting it done.

Entering the day, the Rays are 14th in baseball in wRC+, 19th in fWAR, 20th in batting average, 23rd in K%, 27th in home runs and runs scored. The wRC+ is respectable, but most other offensive categories leave much to be desired.

Their pitching staff has been a little bit better, but not by a wide margin. Rays pitchers rank seventh in BB/9, 11th in K/9, 21st in FIP, 22nd in ERA, 25th in fWAR and 29th in HR/9. A lot has gone wrong for this team.

There’s already been some dead weight cut from the roster, as Harold Ramirez was surprisingly waived and eventually released. Chris Devenski was also sent packing after 19 outings that resulted in a 6.75 ERA in 26.2 innings.

With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, it seems that the organization is unsure of what direction they’ll take. Do they feel confident enough that they can add to their roster and catch the Orioles and Yankees? Ship off players on expiring contracts in an effort to retool for next year? Undergo a sell-off?

Rays Deadline Plans

The Rays have already made two trades, but neither are enough to move the needle in one direction or the other. The club sent starting pitcher Aaron Civale to the Brewers, but that was more so they could welcome Shane Baz back into the rotation.

Then reliever Phil Maton, who had an 86 ERA+ in 40 outings for Tampa Bay, was traded to the Mets in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. Like I said, neither of these moves were quite enough to clearly state which way the Rays are leaning this summer.

However, there are still some players that could be sent packing before all is said and done. Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are both on their way back from injuries, so this club could be only just beginning their moving of starters.

Even if contention is not in the cards for the Rays this year, they need to play well heading up to the deadline to further showcase their trade chips. The better these guys play, the higher their trade value will be should the club decide to sell.

Who Could the Rays Move at the Deadline?

The Rental(s)

Getting the most obvious candidate out of the way first, Amed Rosario is the Rays’ only pending free agent outside of struggling reliever Shawn Armstrong. Rosario, 28, has filled the role of flexible utility player the Rays needed him to so far, as he has played three infield positions and right field.

At the plate, he’s hitting .303 with a 113 OPS+ through 68 games. Rosario has never been much of a power hitter (career-high in home runs is 15 back in 2019), but he runs the bases well and has solid gap power. Any team looking for oft-used bench help could use him at the deadline, especially because he’s a cheap rental.

Starting Pitchers

With Springs and Rasmussen due back in the near future, the door is wide open for the Rays to move some more pitching.

Zach Eflin, 30, has one more year beyond the current one on his contract and has been a top-shelf starter for the Rays. The staff ace has made 17 starts this year and sports baseball’s lowest BB/9 at 0.8, while posting an ERA+ of 98 across 98 innings. Most of his numbers don’t jump off the page, and he’s experienced a tiny regression from last year’s numbers, but he’s dependable and frequently goes six or more innings per start (nine times in 2024). The interest will surely be there, especially at his price point ($11 million this year, $18 million next year).

Zack Littell is a fun story because the Rays randomly converted him to a starter last year and he did well. Like Eflin, his production has declined a bit, but he’s dirt cheap and has raised his K/9 by more than a full strikeout compared to last season.

Relief Pitchers

Both arms at the back end of the Rays’ bullpen are likely to draw the most interest in trade talks. This is primarily because the unit as a whole ranks 24th in baseball in ERA and are 20th in K/9 and BB/9. There just isn’t a whole lot of value in there at the moment.

Pete Fairbanks, the Rays’ primary closer over the past two years, is an interesting piece. Dating back to 2021, his first full year on the Rays, he has a 2.78 ERA with over 12 K/9 in 171.1 innings of work, notching 54 saves along the way. He’s a reliable option to close games and is under contract through next year with a team option for the 2026 season.

Then there’s Jason Adam, who has also been incredible in a Rays uniform. The right-hander has a sparkling 2.09 ERA in 165 appearances since he joined the club in 2022. He’s another high-strikeout arm that’s capable of closing out games and is just about as durable as they come.

Position Players

This is where things get really interesting. The Rays have four high-end position players that could be on the move. Each would command a nice return, but it’s a matter of whether the club is willing to lean into selling. Every member of the quartet is a former All-Star and three of the four have an OPS+ north of 100 this year.

Randy Arozarena is in the midst of a down season but remains the face of this franchise. He has 12 home runs and 31 driven in across 92 games, managing just a .669 OPS and 93 OPS+. His reputation, especially in the postseason, speaks for itself, so there’s definitely value there.

However, it seems that now’s not the time to move him. Since he’s under control through 2026, perhaps right at this moment he’s more valuable to the Rays than any other team. For Arozarena, the move should be to wait until he’s performing better.

Brandon Lowe, a pending free agent who has a pair of team options on his deal, has some impressive pop from the left side and is capable of bouncing around between second base and the outfield corners. Teams in need of some thump and defensive flexibility should be in on him, but the six weeks he missed on the injured list may harm his value a bit.

Yandy Diaz, another prolific offensive infielder, can also test free agency at the end of next season, but he has a team option for 2026. He’s a former batting champion who consistently gets on base, which carries a ton of value. He’s an excellent gap hitter who’s capable of double-digit home run totals, and he’s also cut his strikeout rate down a bit.

Finally, there’s Isaac Paredes, perhaps the most valuable of the bunch. The 25-year-old is an All-Star for the first time in his career and has continued to put up above-average numbers at the dish. In 90 games, he’s got 15 home runs and 50 RBI, along with an .828 OPS and 137 OPS+, a career-high.

What’s the Rays’ Best Course of Action?

The Rays have always shied away from a full-blown teardown, but 2024 should be different. They have the game’s best player development staff, so moving on from expensive, aging players in favor of prospects should be the move.

Lowe, Diaz and Arozarena are buy-low candidates for other teams more than anything else, but shedding them from the payroll and acquiring players that could contribute to the Rays’ next playoff push is an intriguing possibility.

This is an organization that has historically preferred to move players before they get too expensive. That is the argument in favor for them moving Paredes, who’s only going to cost more as he continues his ascent into superstardom. This year is going to be the first of many All-Star selections for him and his price tag is only going to raise higher and higher. Now is the time to move on from him, especially with Junior Caminero waiting in the wings.

Caminero, Carson Williams, Curtis Mead and Osleivis Basabe are just a few of the names in Just Baseball’s top Rays prospects list that could slot in at the big league level should the club move on from position players. Them, along with LHP Mason Montgomery, represent immediate replacements and would absolutely ease the pain from losses felt at the deadline.