Will the Guardians’ Bullpen Be Just as Dominant in 2025?
After a season where the Cleveland Guardians held MLB's best bullpen, is it reasonable to think their 'pen can be just as stellar in 2025?

With a run to the ALCS after reclaiming the AL Central in 2024, the biggest takeaway the Cleveland Guardians took from last season was how dominant their bullpen was.
The Guardians’ bullpen was the unanimous top bullpen in MLB last season, with no team holding a candle to the results their relief corps posted.
Led by the four-headed monster in Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin, the Guardians ‘pen finished first in the majors in ERA, FIP, WHIP and AVG against, while also falling within the top three in strikeout rate and the top 10 in walk rate.
While it was truly a special season for Cleveland’s bullpen, with how volatile relief pitching has traditionally been year-to-year in the major leagues, great bullpens come and go, leaving the Guards facing multiple questions in regard to their relievers.
Will Clase continue to look like the Cy Young caliber reliever he was in the regular season, or will he look as vulnerable as he did in the postseason? Are Gaddis, Smith and Herrin capable of building upon their pleasantly shocking breakout campaigns in 2024? Do they have the depth beyond their big four to manage any sort of regression to their core pieces from a year ago?
All are reasonable questions to have of a bullpen that seemingly carried a team to within a few games of competing for a World Series.
So as we approach the 2025 season, let’s break down the Guardians’ bullpen and determine whether or not they have what it takes to be as dominant as they were just a season ago.
Just How Good Was the 2024 Guardians Bullpen?
While we’ve discussed how good the Guardians bullpen was in 2024, to give complete context to just how this past season was, let’s put it in comparison to some of the league’s best bullpens in recent years.
With a 7.7 team fWAR, Cleveland’s bullpen in 2024 was amongst the top 10 ranked bullpens in the last 10 full 162-game MLB seasons (with the COVID shortened 60-game season being excluded).
Of this group of the highest fWAR accumulating ‘pens since 2014, the Guardians hold the sole lowest ERA and AVG against, sit tied for the lowest WHIP (alongside the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers) and sit within the top five in FIP (5th).
Rank | Team | Year | fWAR | ERA | FIP | WHIP | AVG | K% | BB% |
1 | NYY | 2017 | 8.9 | 3.34 | 3.37 | 1.16 | .201 | 29.0% | 10.0% |
T-2 | LAD | 2022 | 8.8 | 2.87 | 3.24 | 1.05 | .202 | 26.7% | 7.5% |
T-2 | NYY | 2018 | 8.8 | 3.38 | 3.33 | 1.21 | .219 | 30.2% | 9.1% |
4 | SDP | 2018 | 8.6 | 3.53 | 3.31 | 1.19 | .227 | 27.3% | 7.8% |
5 | CLE | 2017 | 8.2 | 2.89 | 3.20 | 1.14 | .223 | 27.5% | 7.5% |
6 | CHW | 2021 | 8.1 | 3.97 | 3.75 | 1.25 | .229 | 27.9% | 9.1% |
7 | TBR | 2021 | 8.0 | 3.24 | 3.59 | 1.14 | .222 | 25.6% | 7.6% |
T-8 | CLE | 2024 | 7.7 | 2.57 | 3.30 | 1.05 | .200 | 26.0% | 8.1% |
T-8 | LAD | 2023 | 7.7 | 3.42 | 3.73 | 1.17 | .223 | 24.9% | 8.1% |
T-10 | BAL | 2023 | 7.5 | 3.55 | 3.56 | 1.26 | .234 | 25.2% | 8.7% |
T-10 | HOU | 2022 | 7.5 | 2.80 | 3.05 | 1.14 | .208 | 28.3% | 9.2% |
T-10 | NYY | 2019 | 7.5 | 4.08 | 4.15 | 1.32 | .239 | 26.4% | 9.4% |
T-10 | HOU | 2018 | 7.5 | 3.03 | 3.14 | 1.06 | .212 | 29.1% | 6.8% |
They were a sound unit top to bottom, led by four particularly special performances from their four high leverage arms.
What to Expect from the “Core Four”
Emmanuel Clase
Despite our most recent memory of Clase on the mound being a lackluster postseason in which he posted a 9.00 ERA in seven outings, there’s no reason to think that a decline from his 2024 Cy Young finalist form is in the cards for 2025.
Other than a “down year” in 2023, in which he threw to 3.22 ERA, a 2.91 FIP, a 1.16 WHIP with 44 saves, Clase has been other-worldly since debuting with the Guardians in 2021.
Year | IP | SV | ERA | FIP | WHIP | AVG | K% | BB% |
2021 | 69.2 | 24 | 1.29 | 2.11 | 0.96 | .194 | 26.5% | 5.7% |
2022 | 72.2 | 42 | 1.36 | 1.98 | 0.73 | .165 | 28.4% | 3.7% |
2023 | 72.2 | 44 | 3.22 | 2.91 | 1.16 | .239 | 21.2% | 5.3% |
2024 | 74.1 | 47 | 0.61 | 2.22 | 0.66 | .151 | 24.4% | 3.7% |
The biggest reason for his continued success has been how untouchable his cutter/slider combo has been.
In 2024, hitters only managed to hit .150 and slug .209 against his cutter, and hit .145 with a miniscule .161 SLG against his slider.
This resulted in some phenomenal underlying metrics. His cutter boasted a 99th percentile run value of 23 with an xBA of .224 and xSLG of .303. His slider sported a 91st percentile run value of 8 with a .168 xBA and a .289 xSLG.
Like his surface level numbers, apart from his abnormal dip in form in 2023, Clase has seemingly either taken step up or been just as strong each season.
Year | xERA | xBA | Hard-Hit% | AVG Exit Velo | Barrel% | Whiff% | Chase% | GB% |
2021 | 2.17 | .203 | 29.6% | 86.4mph | 1.6% | 33.2% | 37.3% | 68.3% |
2022 | 1.97 | .197 | 32.2% | 86.3mph | 2.2% | 30.1% | 46.2% | 64.5% |
2023 | 3.04 | .234 | 37.6% | 88.4mph | 5.0% | 27.4% | 30.8% | 56.6% |
2024 | 2.47 | .214 | 29.7% | 86.5mph | 3.6% | 27.1% | 36.8% | 57.8% |
If the past four years have shown us anything, it’s that Clase has the numbers (both surface and underlying), as well as the dominant pitch mix to be one of if not the best reliever in baseball.
With an arm like that anchoring the bullpen, the Guardians have no reason to doubt that the ninth inning will be covered to world-class standard for years to come.
Hunter Gaddis
Now we move into the arms that really stepped up in 2024. We’ll start with one of the primary set up options for Stephen Vogt last season in Gaddis.
After being a very sporadic and lackluster starter in his minimal major league run both in 2022 and 2023, Gaddis made the full-time shift to the bullpen and more than looked the part of a great big league reliever.
He posted a 1.57 ERA, 2.82 FIP and 0.76 WHIP while holding hitters at bay with a .165 AVG against 5.0% walk rate in 74.2 innings across 78 appearances.
When you compare it to his prior seasons as starter, Cleveland have certainly found something worth building on in the 26-year-old.
Year | IP | G | GS | ERA | FIP | WHIP | AVG | K% | BB% |
2022 | 7.1 | 2 | 2 | 18.41 | 15.39 | 2.45 | .405 | 12.5% | 7.5% |
2023 | 42.0 | 11 | 7 | 4.50 | 5.26 | 1.31 | .250 | 13.2% | 7.7% |
2024 | 74.2 | 78 | 0 | 1.57 | 2.82 | 0.76 | .165 | 23.7% | 5.0% |
He features a diverse three pitch mix of a slider, four seam fastball, and changeup, all of which saw favorable results in 2024.
Pitch Type | Usage% | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG |
Slider | 44.8% | .163 | .211 | .244 | .336 |
4-Seam FB | 38.3% | .219 | .228 | .417 | .413 |
Changeup | 16.8% | .050 | .098 | .075 | .141 |
From an underlying metrics standpoint, the expected data views Gaddis fondly, as a he held a 94th percentile xERA of 2.72 and a 90th percentile xBA of .200 last season, as per Baseball Savant.
Now, while there’s plenty to get excited about with Gaddis from his breakout campaign, it all has to be taken with a grain of salt to a degree.
We have to remember, relief pitching is arguably the most volatile position in all of baseball, and we only have one year of Gaddis to really build an opinion off of.
As we’ve discussed already, there’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Gaddis moving forward.
However, he’s not a perfect pitcher though, and while I feel he has the skills to be a great reliever next season, there are some flaws to his game that could provide obstacles.
For starters, Gaddis isn’t a strikeout-oriented arm. Last season, hitters only struck out against him at a 58th percentile clip of 23.7% and induced whiffs at a 25.0% rate, placing him in the 45th percentile of pitchers.
Now strikeouts aren’t the be-all-end-all of pitching, however when you pair that with a 22nd percentile groundball rate of 37.6%, there’s some reason for concern.
Gaddis induces either line drives or fly balls 52.0% of the time. This type of elevated contact oriented pitching is a lot riskier than an pitcher that keeps the ball on the ground, or better yet ensures the hitter doesn’t get out of the batter’s box.
Again, there’s little reason to think that Gaddis can’t put together a solid campaign in 2025 with three plus pitches (in terms of run value) at his disposal. However, it’s important to understand there’s some elements in Gaddis’ game that could result in some hurdles, meaning a 1.57 ERA and 0.76 WHIP season might be a bit far-fetched to guarantee for 2025.
Cade Smith
Smith might have been one MLB’s best individual Cinderella stories in 2024, after going from one of the last guys selected to break camp after Spring Training to one of the best relievers in all of baseball.
He posted a MLB-best 2.7 fWAR in 2024 to go along with a 1.91 ERA, 1.40 FIP, 0.90 WHIP and .190 AVG against.
Smith achieved this in large part due to his devastating four seam/split finger combo, which each held sub-.200 AVGs and sub-.300 SLG against in 2024.
This resulted in a 98th percentile K-rate of 35.6%, an 84th percentile whiff rate of 30.2% and an 83rd percentile walk rate of 5.9%.
Hitters seldomly could find a way to produce anything off him in his rookie campaign.
While Smith was nothing short of elite in 2024, like Gaddis we have to remember that there’s only a season’s worth of production to go off of.
That being said, the fact that he was able to neutralize hitters on a more regular basis than Gaddis gives a bit more confidence that he can overcome some of his flaws in easier manner.
One of these flaws is the quality of contact he surrenders. When hitters managed to connect on Smith’s offerings, they did so in a loud way. Last season he gave up a 15th percentile hard-hit rate (42.8%), a 35th percentile barrel rate (8.4%) and an 11th percentile AVG exit velocity (90.4 mph).
However, his extremely high K-rates and AVG against totals provide immense confidence that he can make up for his contact-related shortcoming.
While it may be a lot to expect of Smith to put up league-best production for a second-straight season, he’s shown little to dispel the notion that he can’t continue to be a vital piece to the Guardians’ bullpen of the future.
Tim Herrin
While the work of Clase, Gaddis and Smith are often given the most recognition when discussing the Guardians’ bullpen’s success in 2024, Herrin’s efforts cannot be overlooked.
In 65.2 innings across 75 games, the 28-year-old southpaw threw to a sub-2.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-.200 AVG against just like his three fellow backend bullpen mates, with a 1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .172 AVG against.
It marked a significant rebound from his rookie campaign where he posted a 5.53 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Out of the core four, Herrin has the widest range of pitches at his disposal with four deliveries that all induced averages of .250 or lower and sub-.330 SLG rates from hitters.
Pitch Type | Usage% | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG |
Curveball | 35.3% | .137 | .149 | .221 | .223 |
Slider | 27.6% | .250 | .279 | .327 | .466 |
4-Seam FB | 24.5% | .204 | .247 | .241 | .361 |
Changeup | 12.6% | .083 | .207 | .125 | .288 |
Now Herrin is a groundball oriented arm, posting a 51.6% clip in 2024. The fact that he’s able to avoid hard contact at an above average rate (68th percentile hard-hit rate and 89th percentile AVG exit velocity in 2024), along with sporting an above average K-rate (75th percentile) bodes well for repeating this success.
Even with Andrés Giménez out of the picture to better the groundball defense behind him, the fact that Herrin was able to do everything other than avoiding walks to an above average degree spells a recipe for success in 2025.
Again, it must be stressed that success like he experienced in 2024 is relatively abnormal considering the only time he posted a sub-3.00 ERA in the upper minors or majors was a 2.01 ERA in Double-A in 2022.
So like both Gaddis and Smith, the small sample size of major league success needs to considered, but with solid metrics all around, the likelihood of a good follow-up campaign is more than in the cards.
What Does the Rest of the Bullpen Look Like?
With their formidable quartet of high-performing arms in the backend of the ‘pen, the Guardians already have a reliever group that any team would be excited about.
However what makes their ‘pen so unique though is the fact it runs so much deeper, with immense-upside pieces that could potentially breakout (or rebound) in the same way a lot of their current core group did in 2024.
Erik Sabrowski
Sabrowski showed out in his big league cameo last season, both in the month of September as well as the postseason.
In 12.1 innings across eight regular season appearances, he posted a 0.00 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and .140 AVG against with 19 strikeouts and just four walks.
Then came October, where the 27-year-old lefty threw to the tune of a 1.96 ERA in 5.1 innings across five postseason outings.
As promising as he looked in his limited major league experience, he had the intriguing minor league numbers to give his big league breakout more merit.
In 48.2 combined innings in the upper minors last season, Sabrowski sported a 36.3% K-rate with a 2.85 FIP.
While he struggled with issuing walks (14.7% BB% in upper minors), he showed he’s capable of more respectable rates in his limited run in MLB (8.5% BB% rate regular season).
Andrew Walters
Like Sabrowski, Walters was also managed to dazzle in his brief stint in the majors in 2024.
In 8.2 innings across nine outings, the 24-year-old right-hander managed to avoid surrendering an earned run, while posting a WHIP of 0.69 and holding hitters to a .037 AVG.
In the postseason, Walters saw some work as well, as in 3.0 innings pitched across four outings he posted a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .100 AVG against with a K-rate closer to the plus numbers he posted in the minor leagues of 33.3%.
In the upper minors last season, he built himself up as a strong strikeout-oriented arm with a K-rate of 46.3% in Double-A Akron and 31.8% clip Triple-A Columbus. This lead to sub-3.00 ERA performances at both stops.
While he may have some control issues to work through, with a minor league walk rate of 11.8% and major league walk rate of 15.6%, the fact that he was able to perform the way he did at every level in his first year of pro-ball entirely leaves a lot to hope for both him and the Guardians as he continues to develop.
Paul Sewald
Then there’s the newly acquired veteran presence of Paul Sewald to add yet another arm with the skill (and this time the experience) to pitch in high leverage situations.
Last season was rough for the 34-year-old in comparison to the three seasons he had prior. His ERA fell into the mid 4.00s, opponents hit off him 25 points higher than 2023 and his strikeout rate dropped by six percent.
However, from 2021-2023, Sewald posted ERAs in the high 2.00s or low 3.00s with K-rates above 29% and even posted 20 or more saves in two of those three campaigns (2022 and 2023).
With the solidified group of backend arms already in Cleveland from 2024, paired with the two high upside young guns in Sabrowski and Walters, Sewald won’t be expected to be a closing option like he has been in recent years. He simply has to be another reliable sixth to eighth inning option, which is definitely a reasonable ask.
This Bullpen is Truly Built to Last
This Guardians bullpen truly checks all the boxes you look for in an elite bullpen. A world-class closer, plenty of familiar faces to back him up in set-up roles and both additional veteran depth as well as young projectable arms to dream on for the future.
Now is it realistic to expect Clase to post a sub-1.00 ERA in back to back seasons? Likely not.
Is it fair to expect identically excellent seasons from all three 2024 breakout candidates in Gaddis, Smith and Herrin in 2025? Also no.
Is it a guarantee that Sabrowski, Walters and Sewald will be what Gaddis, Smith and Herrin were in 2024? Again, no.
Because at the end of the day relief pitching is (and always will be) a volatile position.
That being said, will all of these arms dramatically underperform in 2025? Most likely not.
All seven of these arms have the tools to be exciting big leaguers, and other than Sabrowski and Walters, they’ve had legitimate major league run to showcase their upside.
So as the 2025 season is now just mere months away, it looks as though opponents will have to try and get to Cleveland’s starters in the opening five innings or so.
Because this Guardians bullpen that now runs seven-deep has the sixth to ninth innings all but locked down.