Top Notes From the Cleveland Guardians ZiPS Projections for 2025

The Cleveland Guardians comfortably won the AL Central in 2024, but this year, their hold on the division title is a long way from certain. With the Minnesota Twins set for a comeback and both the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers coming off playoff berths of their own, the Guardians will have real competition to come out on top in 2025 — so are they ready?

According to ZiPS, it’s a bit of a mixed bag.

For those unfamiliar, ZiPS is a player projections system developed by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, and after two decades of refinement, it’s now “widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry,” per MLB.com.

On January 5, Szymborski released his projections for the Guardians this season. Here are the top takeaways.

Guardians ZiPS: Position Players

• José Ramírez isn’t fading any time soon — Going into his 13th season in the majors, Ramírez continues to be a force at the plate for Cleveland. While the projections stop a long way short of forecasting another 39-homer season for the 32-year-old, he’s still picked to lead the Guardians with 29 home runs, 100 RBI, 135 OPS+, and 5.6 fWAR.

• Steven Kwan’s power will regress — Kwan managed a career-best 14 home runs in 2024, and ZiPS doesn’t expect him to repeat it, forecasting the left fielder to hit just 8 homers this year. At 27 years old, Kwan isn’t likely to develop into a power hitter any time soon, but with a projected 3.7 fWAR and 114 OPS+, he’s still an undeniably crucial part of the Guardians’ offense.

• Juan Brito leads second base contenders — Since the departure of three-time Gold Glove Award winner Andrés Giménez, the Guardians have five players — Juan Brito, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Angel Martínez, Daniel Schneemann — contending to take over as their everyday second baseman this season, and none have particularly inspiring offensive forecasts.
  
  ZiPS puts both Arias and Brito at 1.8 fWAR this year, though gives the edge to Arias with a 97 OPS+ over Brito’s projected 96 OPS+. Still, the fact that Arias is only forecast to have 381 plate appearances across 107 games implies he’ll still be in a part-time role this season, while Brito is forecast to have 615 PAs — the third-most on the Guardians after Ramírez and Kwan — across 137 games.

• Bo Naylor will bounce back (a little bit) — After posting an abysmal .201/.264/.350 line, 73 OPS+, and 1.6 fWAR in 2024, Naylor is projected to rebound to slightly more acceptable numbers this year. ZiPS forecasts a .220/.309/.396 line from the 25-year-old, as well as an improved 100 OPS+ and 2.7 fWAR.
  
  He’s certainly not putting up Ramírez-level stats any time soon, but Naylor’s 2025 campaign may at least see him get back to league average.

Guardians ZiPS: Pitching Staff

• Tanner Bibee will back up his strong 2024 campaign — Bibee is going into his third season in the majors, and ZiPS sees him having another fierce campaign atop the Guardians’ rotation. The system forecasts him managing a 10-8 win-loss record, 3.48 ERA, and 2.7 fWAR in 160.1 innings across 29 starts this year, which is very close to his actual 2024 stats — 12-8 record, 3.47 ERA, and 3.3 fWAR in 173.2 innings across 31 starts.
  
  The projection isn’t ambitious enough to forecast Bibee throwing as many innings in 2025 as he did in 2024, but at 29 starts, he’s still expected to be the Guardians’ most-utilized starter by far.

• Shane Bieber will come back in decent form — There’s no confirmed timeline for Bieber’s return from the IL after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April last year, though ZiPS is optimistic about what he’ll offer Cleveland in 2025. The 29-year-old is projected to post a 3.63 ERA, 110 strikeouts, and 2.0 fWAR in 119.0 innings across 20 starts, which would mark his best season since 2022.

• Triston McKenzie still isn’t rebounding — After posting a 5.06 ERA during his injury-riddled 2023 season and a 5.11 ERA last year, few pitchers need a comeback as much as McKenzie. Unfortunately, ZiPS doesn’t expect too much of an improvement this year, forecasting the 27-year-old to manage an ERA of just 4.77 in 111.1 innings of work (22 starts), with a -0.2 fWAR. It’s movement in the right direction, but it’s hardly the rebound he needs after the last two seasons.

• Starting rotation depth won’t be a problem, but the quality isn’t too exciting — Lack of pitching depth was an issue for the Guardians last year, but in 2025, ZiPS projects 14 players on the Guardians’ staff to make 20 or more starts, with a further two players each forecast to make 19 starts. While Bibee leads the group with a projected 29 starts, Logan Allen isn’t far behind him at 26, Parker Messick is at 25, and Ben Lively and Austin Peterson are forecast to post 24 starts a piece.
  
  Unless MLB suddenly adds an extra 100+ games to the season, this obviously isn’t actually going to happen, but it emphasizes the Guardians’ focus on bolstering starting options this winter, with Szymborski now describing the staff as having “almost limitless better-than-replacement depth.”
  
  Unfortunately, most of the Guardians’ long list of starters are projected to be merely adequate, with Allen, Messick, Lively, and Peterson all forecasted to post ERAs above 4.20.

• The bullpen will continue to dominate, but not as much as last year — After leading MLB with a combined 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last season, ZiPS expects the Guardians’ relief corps to return in fine form this year. Still, some pitchers are projected to post much higher ERAs than they did in 2024, which is surprising after their recent campaigns.
  
  Admittedly, closer Emmanuel Clase isn’t likely to manage another phenomenal 0.61 ERA, and his forecasted 2.15 ERA still makes him the best-projected reliever in MLB — but that’s still a decent rise. Similarly, Cade Smith is forecasted to post a 2.93 ERA this year after managing a stunning 1.91 ERA last season, and Tim Herrin’s ERA is projected to rise from 1.92 last year to 3.30 this year.
  
  To be clear, ZiPS has the Guardians bullpen pegged to be one of the best in MLB, and these numbers are still very strong. It’ll be interesting to see if Clase, Smith, and Herrin outdo their projections this season.

Guardians ZiPS: Final Thoughts

The Guardians have added a significant amount of depth to their rotation this winter, but overall, the standard is merely adequate. Similarly, the team’s batting lineup doesn’t include nearly enough power or consistency to make them a shoo-in for the AL Central division title.

While ZiPS projects the Guardians’ bullpen continuing to a be fierce, that alone won’t get them to the playoffs, especially with the Twins, Royals, and Tigers creeping up behind them.