Will C.J. Abrams Ever Live Up to His Full Potential?

The Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019 but haven’t had a winning record since.

Washington had a ton of talent on that championship roster. While Bryce Harper left a year prior, the team consisted of notable stars like Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Max Scherzer, and 2019 World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg.

Yet the Nationals failed to retain many stars after winning the World Series. In 2019, Rendon left for a seven-year deal worth $245 million with the Angels. The Nationals escaped a bad contract there but invested in Strasburg after his World Series MVP, inking a $245 million contract with the powerful right-handed phenom.

But little did the Nationals know, Strasburg would appear in just eight games for the rest of his career despite being signed for seven seasons due to injuries. That didn’t help Washington’s quest to be competitive again.

By 2021, when things still weren’t going well, Turner and Scherzer were traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for prospects Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Gerardo Carrillo, and Donovan Casey. This was the true start of a the rebuild.

That left Juan Soto as the only key superstar left on the roster. However, the Nationals were starting to lose control of Soto’s contract and ultimately understood that they weren’t in the position to sign Soto to a long-term extension while in a rebuild.

Therefore, the Nationals traded Soto to the San Diego Padres in a deal that brought in many high-valued prospects, including James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, and the main piece, C.J. Abrams. 

Abrams’ Journey Into The Big Leagues

When Abrams came to the Nationals, Washington expected him to be a cornerstone player. Abrams played for Team USA in the U-18 Pan-American Championships in 2018 and became Georgia’s Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year in 2019 after hitting .431.

Although he committed to playing at Alabama following his senior season in high school, the Padres selected Abrams sixth overall in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft. Eventually, he signed a $5.2 million contract that kept him from the University of Alabama.

Abrams quickly rose up the ranks and debuted with the Padres on Opening Day in April 2022, adding his first career home run seven days later. However, the Padres were in a win-now mindset and wanted to add superstars instead of waiting for a player like Abrams to develop.

By August 2, 2022, the Padres and Nationals struck that blockbuster deal that landed Abrams in Washington for Juan Soto.

Last year, Abrams had his first full season with Washington as the team’s shortstop. He only hit .245 but slugged 18 home runs and added 47 stolen bases while being the table-setter for the Nationals. Ultimately, expectations were high for Abrams heading into the 2024 season.

High Expectations For The Top Prospect

This season, Abrams slashed .305 /.371/.611 in April while holding an OPS of .982. In addition, he stole four bases and added 18 runs in the month. Things looked positive.

But when May came around, Abrams went cold, hitting .205 with an on-base percentage of only .216. Still, in June, Abrams returned to life, where he had his best month, hitting .373 with a .464 OBP. His OPS reached 1.127, and it felt like Abrams was about to prove to the MLB world that he was a top-five shortstop in the MLB.

From July on, he’s hit below .200 despite making his first All-Star Game appearance earlier this year.

Abrams simply fell off in the second half of the season. His impact hasn’t even been felt much when he’s on the base paths.

During his breakout season last year, Abrams stole 47 bases and was caught stealing just four times. This year, he’s stolen just 29 bases and has been caught 12 times. Abrams is getting on base at the same rate as last season, but he’s committing way more outs than the previous year.

We may be getting ahead of ourselves with what Abrams is capable of.

Last season, Abrams didn’t make great contact with his bat. He hit nearly 45% of ground balls and delivered just 25.1% of fly balls, with only 20.6% of line drives. Of course, you don’t need insane statistics to be a good hitter.

Just look at Luis Arraez’s analytics. He won multiple batting titles, including last year’s with the Padres, despite hitting only 25.2% of hard contact and adding just a 1.6% barrel percentage.

But if you’re going to do that, you need to keep strikeouts down. Abrams has seen his strikeout rate increase by about 2% from last season.

Abrams’ OBP has increased by .08, and his xwOBA is up 17 points from last year. His wRC+ is also 13 points better.

The offense from Abrams is about the same as last year, minus the bad baserunning. But what really went south was his fielding this season.

Abrams currently has a -7.3 Def WAR. If you look at Defensive Runs Saved, Abrams has graded out as an average defender, with 1 DRS on the season. If we look at Outs Above Average though, Abrams has the worst mark among any fielder in the game at -15 DRS.

He’s got a limited range, and can get erratic with his throws over to first. Abrams has made 17 errors this season, ranking among the top 10 in both fielding errors and throwing errors. At some point, you have to wonder if a move over second base would be beneficial to Abrams, where he could take a lot of the pressure of his glove and just focus on being the best hitter he can be.

He’s made some major highlights this season. Nevertheless, they’ll need Abrams to get on base more as the lead-off hitter, and they also will want to see him tap into the plus power more consistently.

Improvements Are Coming

Per MLB.com, Davey Martinez and the Washington staff are working with Abrams on his bat angle, setup, and motion. Since this was brought to the public’s attention on September 7, Abrams has launched two home runs and has added five total hits in the last four games played. He’s also struck out just twice and has a stolen base without getting caught.

This is the Abrams the Nationals want to see consistently. He and other vital pieces traded for, like C Keibert Ruiz, SP Josiah Gray, SP MacKenzie Gore, and OF James Wood, can help bring Washington back to the promised land.

Those prospects and other young gems, such as OF Dylan Crews, SP Mitchell Parker, and SP DJ Herz, could develop this team into a powerhouse sooner rather than later.

It may take some time. Even so, we’ll see if Abrams can close out the rest of the regular season strong. He’d love to use his late momentum into next year. It’s just hard to trust Abrams until we get an entire consistent season out of him. Then again, he’s only 23 years old and has a lot of baseball left in him. Will Abrams Ever Be a Five-Tool Phenom?

A 20-home run season for the 23-year-old isn’t so bad after all. His very recent success could be the result of just having former No. 2 overall pick Crews in the lineup behind him. He’s got more protection in the lineup, and as Crews and Wood develop, that will only lift the rest of the Nationals lineup around them.

In addition, Abrams has hit only .218 against righties as a lefty. He’s had more success against lefties as a lefty, which isn’t usually how it works. Meanwhile, when Abrams hits line drives, he added a .649 average this year.

He’s just only hit 74 line drives this season, which is 22.7% of his balls batted into play. Abrams will want that number to increase for more consistent success. 

It’s also still possible Abrams will become a reliable five-tool player. Let’s not forget he already has multiple years under his belt in the majors before reaching 24. If he can use his experience and work on his weaknesses in the offseason. Abrams could still be the real deal. He’s shown glimpses. He’s just not there yet.