Will Austin Riley Get Back to Being Elite in 2025?

It’s hard to say that Austin Riley is a player that needs to “bounce back” in 2025.

In 110 games before a broken hand ended his season prematurely, Riley slashed .256/.322/.461 with a 116 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR. Even though he was 16% better than the average major league hitter, 2024 fell short of what we expected statistically from Riley in his age-27 season.

In each season from 2021-23, Riley eclipsed 30 home runs, 5 fWAR, and an .850 OPS. His lowest output regarding wRC+ was in 2023 when he ended at 128.

Like Riley, his team, the Atlanta Braves, played well but underperformed relative to expectations last season. The Braves finished 89-73, earning the National League’s fifth seed before being swept by the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round.

The team lost superstars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider to season-ending injuries early in the season. They needed to rely heavily on Riley and Matt Olson to help them stay afloat.

Making the playoffs while weathering those key injuries was nothing to scoff at. But, ultimately, many would say that the Braves fell short of what they were trying to accomplish in 2024. Hopefully, with a clean bill of health, they can return to being one of the best in baseball.

That narrative applies perfectly to Riley’s current status in Major League Baseball. He had a good season last year but aims to be great in 2025.

Reasons for Optimism

There were many things to like about Riley’s 2024 season. It may not have led to the superstar-level output that many expected from him, but his batted-ball results look very similar to those that he posted over that stretch from 2021-23.

Let’s take a look at Riley’s results from some important metrics over the past four seasons (best season for each statistic in bold italics):

As we see from the data above, Riley was largely the same hitter on a results basis. His expected stats remained similar, but he was hitting the ball harder than he ever had.

Riley set career-best marks in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which are incredibly encouraging for his prospects in 2025.

Riley’s strikeout and walk rates were similar to his career norms. Missing out on opportunities to put balls in play wasn’t what dragged him down.

Based on his recent historical production, there is no reason to believe that if he accumulates 600 at-bats, he wouldn’t be able to hit 30 home runs. He mashed baseballs at an elite rate last season.

Possible Explanation for Slight Drop-Off in 2024

We know that Riley suffered a season-ending hand fracture in August. However, he also spent a couple of weeks on the injured list earlier in the season, due to an oblique strain.

When Riley returned, it took him some time to get back on track. In his first 16 games following being re-instated from the IL, Riley went 10-for-62 (.161) with two extra-base hits (both doubles), 17 strikeouts, four walks, and a .406 OPS.

Once Riley hit his first home run on June 18, he was back to being elite for the remainder of his season.

Over those 57 games from June 18 until the aforementioned hand fracture, Riley slashed .292/.354/.588 (.942 OPS), with 16 home runs, 16 doubles, and 36 RBI.

Over a 162-game pace with this sample, he would have hit 45 home runs with 102 RBI.

It’s unreasonable to expect Riley to sustain that kind of torrid production for six months. However, producing at that level for two months is still incredibly impressive. It shows us that despite a slow start, Riley could still contribute at an elite level in what was considered a down year.

Final Thoughts

Austin Riley is one of the best third basemen in baseball. He isn’t on the same level as the Cleveland Guardians’ Jose Ramirez due to his defensive shortcomings and slow sprint speed, but he is a gifted hitter.

Steamer projects Riley to record 662 plate appearances, hitting 31 home runs with a 125 wRC+ and a 4.1 fWAR. This would put Riley among the top ten in the Senior Circuit in home runs.

If Riley continues to make hard contact at this elite rate, 31 home runs feels like a safe floor. Riley could push for 40 home runs in 2025, especially if the Braves stay healthy and provide him with ample lineup protection.

BetMGM projects the Braves to finish as the second-best team in the National League, at 93.5 wins. If Riley establishes himself as an MVP candidate this year, perhaps they could be one of the few teams that could give the Dodgers a serious challenge.

After an underwhelming season for both Riley and the Braves this past season, it’s more than likely that the two bounce back and re-establish themselves among the best in the game.