Texas Rangers Are Getting Top Pitching Back Too Late

Sometimes help can arrive a little past when it is needed. That is more than likely the case taking place in Arlington with the Texas Rangers. The defending World Series champions have struggled all season but are set to get two of their top pitchers off the IL soon. Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom are chomping at the bit to get in the fight.

Heading into a key matchup against the Astros on Monday night, the Rangers found themselves 4.5 games behind Houston and 5.5 games behind the AL West leading Mariners. That doesn’t sound all that bad until a quick check of the calendar reveals that it is already the first part of August. Counting Monday’s contest, the Rangers only have 50 games remaining in the regular season.

In a piece that I put together here at Just Baseball before the season started, I took a look into the challenges of repeating as champions. Not only that, but how difficult it is for a team to even make the playoffs the year after winning it all.

This 2024 season has proven to be arduous thus far.

Tyler Mahle to Make Rangers Debut vs Astros

One bright spot is that Mahle is the probable starter for Tuesday night’s game versus the Astros. This will be his first start in a Rangers’ uniform. Mahle signed a two-year $22 million contract this past offseason.

The signing seemed like a brilliant move by GM Chris Young at the time. Mahle, who was already recovering from Tommy John surgery, was going to miss the first four or so months of the season. The idea was that he would be a “trade deadline acquisition” of sorts that wouldn’t cost the team any of their farm system.

Not only that, but he would also be part of the full rotation come 2025. While that was a great plan, the fact that the Rangers have struggled to win game this season makes Mahle’s return a little anticlimactic.

Not to mention the fact that Mahle isn’t an ace. He is a solid big-league pitcher, but not someone that a team can mark down a ‘W’ just about every time that they take the mound. In seven seasons he is 33-41, has a 4.30 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, and a 1.304 WHIP.

Jacob deGrom on Track for Early September Return

On Monday, Young on spoke on 105.3FM The Fan and discussed all things, Rangers. One topic that was talked about was the impending return of deGrom. Like Mahle, he has been rehabbing from his own Tommy John surgery.

deGrom’s return to big league action is a little behind that of Mahle’s but is right on track with what was expected. He has been throwing bullpens and looking great. This week sometime he is supposed to face hitters for the first time in a simulated game.

And after some rehab starts, if everything goes well, deGrom should be back in Arlington with the Rangers at the very beginning of September. With him being signed to three more seasons (and a possible fourth because of a $20 million club option) after this one, the club will not risk rushing him back in any form or fashion.

Needle movers are hard to find in baseball, but deGrom is one of those guys. He can dominate a game as well as anyone. The question this year is, will he make any meaningful starts for the Rangers, or will they already be out of contention when he steps on the mound?

Grim Reality for Texas Rangers

Before my fellow Rangers fans yell at me about throwing in the towel, let’s take a look at the reality of the current situation. As stated earlier, after this weekend, the Rangers had 50 games left. Their current record is 54-59. Yes, that is five games under .500 and the team also has a depressing -19 run differential.

Last season with 50 games to go this Rangers team was 66-46 with a whopping +170 run differential. The 2023 Rangers struggled to finish strong by only going 24-26 down the stretch to finish the season as an AL wild card team.

Fangraphs has the Rangers playoff odds at 6.5%. Not great, but realistic. They actually predict that the team will end up with 79 wins which would mean that they had gone 26-24 over the final 50 games. They have both Seattle and Houston getting to 85 wins and give the Mariners a slight edge on winning the AL West.

Let’s just say that the Rangers did manage to get to the 85-win total. Is that even possible? It would take the team posting an obscene 32-18 record (.640 winning percentage) to finish out the 2024 season.

Heading into Monday’s play there was only one MLB team with a winning percentage over .600. That distinction belonged to the Cleveland Guardians at .604.

Slightest of Chances Remain

Mathematically the Texas Rangers are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. There is a chance, even though it feels very much like Dumb and Dumber odds. “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Here is the skinny. Last season the Rangers started off 2023 with a 35-20 record in March, April, and May. That is a .636 winning percentage. If this 2024 version of the Rangers could replicate that percentage, with some rounding it would get them to 85 wins.

During that two-month period last year the Rangers won 13 series (three sweeps), lost four (swept once), and split a two gamer against the Diamondbacks. In order for Texas to have any chance at the postseason they have to pile up the wins and win series.

The longest winning streak (three times) and losing streak (once) was only four games. This team doesn’t have to go on a 10-game winning streak. Although it would surely help. But they will have to two step their way to finish line. Two steps forward and only one step back.

Texas wraps up their season series with the Astros this week. They still have seven games against Seattle slated for mid-September. The Ranges are getting Mahle and deGrom back. Now, whether it is too late or not is yet to be seen.

Rangers fans are going to get to watch some good baseball one way or the other. And if they do catch fire as a team and stay in the AL West race, it will make for an exciting end of the summer.