Who Was Better in 2024: Tarik Skubal or Chris Sale?
With Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal all but guaranteed to take home the Cy Young Awards this year, let’s take a look to see which ace had the better season.
At the beginning of the year, the notion that a 35-year-old Chris Sale would take home his first Cy Young would have seemed laughable. He had only made a total of 31 starts in the last three seasons combined, and Boston flipped him to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom over the winter.
The injury-riddled Sale, who had dealt with everything from Tommy John surgery to a bike accident to getting hit in the finger by a line drive, had been mostly effective in his limited time on the mound, but it seemed like a foregone conclusion that his best years were yesterday.
Sale proceeded to turn this narrative on its head.
Chris Sale’s Dominant 2024 Season
With the regular season officially complete, Chris Sale led all of baseball in ERA (2.38), ERA+ (174), FIP (2.09), HR/9 (0.46), K/9 (11.40), wins (18), and winning percentage (.857). He also led the National League with 225 strikeouts on the year.
Sale essentially swept the board for all major pitching statistics, staying healthy up until the final day of the season. His 29 starts were the most he has made in a season since 2017, allowing him to throw the innings needed to accumulate the numbers that have made him the NL Cy Young frontrunner.
This is a true return to the absolute dominance of his 2016-18 seasons, and one could make the case that this was his best season ever. Never before has Sale won the pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
Sale’s case for Cy Young is absolutely rock-solid, as he dominated old-school counting statistics, like wins, and has the underlying metrics, like ERA+ and FIP, to validate his success.
How did Sale find such success? The answer is different than it would have been just a few years ago. His pitching run value of 34, which ranked in the 100th percentile, was thanks not to a dominant fastball but instead to his breaking and offspeed pitches, which ranked in the 100th and 97th percentile, respectively, in terms of run value.
Hitters batted just .159 off his changeup and .171 against his slider, making them two of the most effective pitches from a starter in all of baseball.
His underlying metrics were outstanding, as he finished in the top 10% of baseball or better in terms of xERA, average exit velocity, chase percentage, strikeout percentage, xSLG, WOBA, and hard-hit percentage.
His whiff percentage, walk percentage, and barrel percentage were all in the top 16% or better. This was truly utter domination from a pitcher who was almost universally believed to be a shell of his former self.
Tarik Skubal’s Remarkable Breakout
In the American League, another lefty is at the opposite end of his career arc, cementing himself as an ace while (presumably) winning a Cy Young in his breakout year.
Tarik Skubal has been absolutely stellar for the upstart Detroit Tigers, who remarkably find themselves in the ALDS despite being under .500 as recently as August.
Skubal led all of baseball in strikeouts (228) and finished tied with Sale for the most wins with 18. He topped the American League in ERA (2.39), ERA+ (170), FIP (2.49), and winning percentage (.818).
At just 27 years old, the southpaw has seen a marked improvement in his numbers each of the last four seasons, culminating in this remarkable breakout campaign.
Skubal’s pitching run value in 2024 was actually 3 runs higher than Chris Sale’s, landing him in the 100th percentile. His fastball, offspeed, and breaking run values ranked in the 99th, 93rd, and 81st percentiles, respectively. Skubal is a pitcher with every tool in his toolbox, and he used them all to great success this season.
Skubal ranked in the 90th percentile or better in xERA, whiff percentage, walk percentage, wOBA, and strikeout percentage. His xBA, fastball velocity, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage were all in the 80th percentile or better; Skubal was stellar in seemingly every underlying metric.
Of the four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time, none of them had an opponent batting average over .216, with opponents hitting under .200 against his fastball and slider.
This combination of four pitches thrown between 15% and 33% of the time kept hitters guessing all season, and when each pitch is above average in its own right, the sequencing and pure stuff make Skubal all but unhittable.
Splitting Hairs Between Sale and Skubal
With both Sale and Skubal having excellent seasons, trying to determine who has been better really comes down to splitting hairs. With both pitchers earning the Triple Crown in their respective leagues, the two have truly separated themselves from their competition.
Sale has been marginally better than Skubal in a lot of the more traditional metrics, leading all of baseball in so many areas that Skubal is relegated to just leading the American League. However, Skubal has a more balanced arsenal, and many of the underlying metrics favor him ever so slightly.
Given all of this, I think the nod needs to go to Skubal, who threw 15 more innings than Sale with essentially the same production. Using innings pitched as a deciding factor, though, shows just how good both of these pitchers were this season.
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