Sale or Wheeler: Which Longtime Ace Will Win His First Cy Young in 2024?

When Just Baseball looked at the NL Cy Young odds at the end of May and June, Zack Wheeler was the favorite to take home the league’s top pitching prize. However, a poor outing on July 29 (5.0 IP, 7 ER) raised his ERA from 2.55 to 2.94 and helped Chris Sale jump ahead in the Cy Young race.

Thus, Sale was the favorite when Just Baseball looked at the odds at the end of July, and he maintained his position at the top during a mid-August check-in. He remains the odds-on favorite with just over three weeks left to play in the 2024 regular season.

It certainly seems like Sale is destined to win his first career Cy Young Award, but the season isn’t over quite yet. Recency bias is a powerful thing, but don’t forget that Wheeler was the favorite for a significant portion of the season, too.

A single blow-up outing from Sale could tip the scales back in Wheeler’s favor – or at least make for a much more difficult decision for the BBWAA voters.

Stats updated prior to games on September 5.

2024 NL Cy Young Odds

• Chris Sale: -667
• Zack Wheeler: +375

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The Favorite: Chris Sale’s NL Cy Young Case

2024 Stats: 16-3, 2.46 ERA, 160.2 IP, 32.4% K%, 5.4% BB%, 2.76 xERA, 6.1 fWAR

Chris Sale leads the National League with 16 wins, 206 strikeouts, and a 2.46 ERA.

If he maintains his lead in all three categories, he’ll become the first pitcher to win a Triple Crown since Shane Bieber in 2020. He’ll be the first NL pitcher to win a Triple Crown since Clayton Kershaw in 2011. He’ll be the first pitcher in Braves franchise history to win a Triple Crown since John Clarkson in 1889.

And he will almost certainly win the National League Cy Young Award. Since the introduction of the Cy Young in 1956, 14 pitchers have won a Triple Crown. All 14 have also won the Cy Young.

Modern BBWAA voters are less influenced by traditional statistics, and therefore the Triple Crown. However, Sale also leads qualified NL pitchers in just about every advanced metric. That includes FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA, fWAR, bWAR, WARP, and Baseball Savant’s Pitching Run Value.

On top of all that, Sale winning the Cy Young would make for an incredible story. He finished among the top six in Cy Young voting seven years in a row from 2012-2018. Yet, he never took home the trophy.

Not long after he turned 30, injuries became the defining theme of Sale’s career. As he struggled to get back on the mound, it seemed like his big league tenure was winding down. He turned 35 years old this March. Even if he could stay healthy for a full season, few expected him to return to his Cy Young-caliber form.

Needless to say, Sale has outperformed even the most optimistic of expectations in 2024.

Strictly speaking, a heartwarming story shouldn’t influence BBWAA voters, but these are writers we’re talking about. They can’t help but be moved by a compelling narrative. Perhaps it’s all subconscious, but a good story usually helps a player’s Cy Young, MVP, or ROY case.

Thus, if Sales keeps this up, it’s almost impossible to imagine he won’t win the NL Cy Young – and unanimously at that.

However, if Sale slips even a little bit, another veteran ace who is equally hungry to win his first Cy Young Award could swoop into the conversation…

The Fighter: Zack Wheeler’s NL Cy Young Case

2024 Stats: 13-6, 2.63 ERA, 167.2 IP, 27.5% K%, 6.8% BB%, 3.00 xERA, 4.4 fWAR

Zack Wheeler isn’t ready to concede defeat.

Since his blow-up on July 29, Wheeler has a 1.62 ERA in six starts. He has averaged 6.5 innings per outing, with 44 strikeouts and just five walks in 39 frames.

All six outings were quality starts, pushing him to the top of the quality starts leaderboard in the National League. On the season, 21 of his 27 starts have been quality outings. No other NL pitcher has more than 18 quality starts. Only 16 of Sale’s 26 appearances have earned the “quality” label.

In addition to quality starts, Wheeler also leads qualified NL pitchers in WHIP and Win Probability Added. His 0.98 WHIP is marginally better than Sale’s 1.01 mark. Similarly, his 3.63 WPA is ever so slightly higher than Sale’s 3.58.

Personally, I don’t put much stock in WHIP, but it’s a major statistical category that some voters will surely take into consideration.

On the other hand, if I were trying to make Wheeler’s Cy Young case right now, his league-leading WPA would be the strongest argument in his favor.

Sale might have more wins and a lower ERA, but technically speaking, Wheeler has contributed more positive value to help his team win ballgames. That’s probably not enough to sway any Cy Young voters, but it’s worth keeping in mind, especially if Wheeler can close the gap in some more critical categories.

Wheeler ranks second in the NL with 13 wins, a 2.63 ERA, and a .194 batting average against. He is fourth with 183 strikeouts and fifth with a 20.8% K-BB%. His 0.91 HR/9 ranks seventh. If he gains ground in several of these areas, his Cy Young case will be significantly stronger.

It’s also worth mentioning that Wheeler grades out better than Sale according to the pitch modeling systems PitchingBot and Pitching+.

I’m not suggesting pitch modeling will influence Cy Young voting. Nor should it.

However, pitch models provide evidence that Wheeler has a superior arsenal to Sale. That doesn’t mean he has performed better thus far – he hasn’t – but it could help him outperform Sale over the final weeks of the season.

That’s exactly what he needs to do if he wants to claim the first Cy Young Award of his career.