Who Is Going To Get Starts for the Guardians in the Playoffs?

It’s been a year of overachieving for the Cleveland Guardians. They entered the season coming off a 76-86 campaign in 2023 as part of an AL Central division that was perceived to be the weakest division in MLB in 2024.

But on Sept. 28 the Guardians sit 92-68 with an AL Central Division title under their belt and a bye to the ALDS locked up as one of the American League’s two best teams.

This has been a testament to the strength of their lineups on the backs of José Ramírez and co and their MLB best bullpen with a power three in the backend of Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith.

But what hasn’t helped them to their improbable dominance in 2024 has been their starting rotation.

Cleveland has sported one of MLB’s worst starting staffs in 2024. They rank 27th in fWAR at 6.0 only ranking above major league bottom feeders in the Los Angeles Angels (5.3 fWAR), Colorado Rockies (4.0) and Miami Marlins (1.4), according to FanGraphs.

They also rank 23rd in WHIP at 1.31, 24th in ERA and FIP at 4.40 and 4.51 and 21st in AVG against at .248.

But as the postseason approaches so to does the need for Cleveland to nail down their postseason rotation for their impending ALDS series.

So let’s discuss who should get the ball to start games in October.

Tanner Bibee is the Clear Cut Number One

After Shane Bieber went down for the year just weeks into the 2024 campaign, Tanner Bibee has been the guy to step up and take the mantle as the impromptu ace of this Guardians staff.

In 2024 the 25-year-old righty is sporting a very respectable 3.47 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and a .228 AVG against in a team leading 31 starts and 173.2 innings.

And Bibee has been achieving his success in part to a highly effective breaking and offspeed combination that will come in handy when needing to neutralize hitters under the bright October lights.

He holds a 99th percentile breaking run value of 14 and an 89th percentile offspeed run value of 5, which has been in large part due to the inability of opponents to hit his slider, curveball and changeup in 2024.

Bibee also has three separate months of sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.10 WHIP ball under his belt this season. He pitched to a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in April, a 2.86 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in June, and so far in September Bibee is entering the postseason on his best note with a 2.64 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last five starts.

Matthew Boyd and Ben Lively Should Follow Bibee

The question for the Guardians, especially after Bieber went down, is what do they have beyond Bibee? That question became all the more relevant after the disappointing showing the once projected future star of Cleveland’s rotation Triston McKenzie had in 2024, which led to a lot of time in the minor leagues.

There’s been two answers to this question in 2024: Matthew Boyd and Ben Lively.

Matthew Boyd

Boyd has been the pitcher the Guardians have desperately needed to support Bibee since coming off the IL on Aug. 13.

In 39.2 innings across eight starts, he’s posted a 2.72 ERA, with a 1.13 WHIP and .212 AVG against.

And Boyd has been excellent at inducing the swing and miss from his opponents since his return. He’s sporting a 27.7% K-rate to go along with a 29.7% whiff rate.

Of his three main pitches (Four-seam fastball, changeup, slider) in which he throws over 15% of the time, two of them have resulted in .150 AVGs or lower. His four-seam fastball has held opponents to a just a .150 AVG and .250 SLG, while his slider has been even more impressive as opponents have hit just .148 against it, slugged just .222 and they’re whiffing at it 44.9% of the time.

He’s efficiently induced outs for the Guardians in his starts, which becomes all the more important when each out means that much more under the bright lights of the postseason.

Ben Lively

If Boyd has been the boost Cleveland needed down the stretch, then Ben Lively has been a godsend for the Guardians in 2024.

The 32-year-old righty has gone from an MLB outcast to a reliable starting arm all in the span of a season.

In 147.0 innings across 28 starts this season, Lively has thrown to the tune of a 3.80 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and a .239 AVG against.

He’s done so in an unconventional manner to say the least. Lively ranks below the 25th percentile in fastball velo, average exit velo, hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.

But at the end of the day whatever he’s doing is working as two of the three pitches that he throws at least 15% of the time have hitters managing only modest results against him. His sinker is only getting hit at a .223 clip and his sweeper at just a .235 clip.

Lively’s stuff isn’t blowing hitters away by any means but the fact he has six different pitches to fall back on adds that element of deception.

It may not look glamorous but the sometimes you’ve got to ride the hot hand heading into the postseason, and through four starts in September, Lively is sporting a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP giving both him and the Guardians momentum to build off of.

Who’s The Four in the Four-Man Rotation?

Deciding who gets the ball in the opening three fixtures of the ALDS is a much easier task than determining who starts Game 4.

The two names that are likely to duke it out for the final spot are Gavin Williams and Joey Cantillo.

If you were to ask me at the beginning of the season who would get the nod to take the mound in a postseason start between the 2021 first-rounder in Williams fresh off a decent rookie season in 2023 versus the 2017 16th-round pick in Cantillo in his rookie season coming off a lackluster 2023 season in Triple-A, I’d go with Williams, no questions asked.

But that’s why we play the games, because the answer is not so cut and dry now that we’re just days out from the postseason.

Williams certainly has the edge over Cantillo when it comes to familiarity in 2024. Williams has 76.0 innings pitched and 16 starts under his belt this year compared to Cantillo’s 35.0 innings across eight outings and seven starts.

But Williams hasn’t dazzled in his time in majors this season. He’s sporting an ERA in the high 4.00s (4.86) with an inflated WHIP of 1.37.

Cantillo can’t say he’s much better, as in his limited stint in the majors he’s sporting an 4.89 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP.

But FIP favors Williams in 2024 as his 3.67 is significantly lower than Cantillo’s 4.07.

It’s razor thin margins between the two as even when you look at the their individual pitch offerings, both of them feature the same primary pitch of a four-seam fastball that is has resulted in the exact same .286 AVG against in 2024.

When all is said and done though an option needs to be made and I tend to lean towards Cantillo despite his limited work on the big league roster this season.

While his MLB season started in a less than desirable manner, as he entered August with a 7.71 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, he’s managed to lower his ERA into the 4.00’s and now has a 1.29 WHIP after this month, due to a monthly ERA of 2.25 and monthly WHIP of 1.00 through four starts in September.

Williams on the other hand has posted 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in five starts this month.

Momentum plays such a factor come October and in this case the momentum lies with Cantillo.

How it Would All Play Out in Cleveland

So after all of that, this is how I think the Guardians best postseason rotation would look.

It’s certainly not the glamourous rotation that other squads will be able to sport this postseason, but it’s managed to get Cleveland up to this point so far. And all of these starters have posted sub 3.20 ERAs in the month of September, so as I’ve said before, the momentum is certainly there with this group.

And the Guardians always have that world class bullpen to fall back on that has the depth to not only support their starters on bad day, but keep them in games as well.

While it hasn’t been the year the Guardians were hoping to have from their starters, it’s important not to take a crazy amount of stock in the season statistics for this group. This is still a 90+ win division winning ball club with a starting staff that has not only gotten them here but might be hitting their stride at the right time, which could spell a deep postseason run in Cleveland when paired with that offense and bullpen.