Which Rule 5 Picks Have the Best Chance To Stick on Their New Team’s Roster? Part 3

Earlier this week, I wrote a couple of pieces about the Rule 5 draft picks who have a good chance to stick with their new team throughout the 2025 season.

Here’s a quick refresher on the basic details of the Rule 5 process:

In order to hold onto their Rule 5 draft pick(s), a team must keep the player(s) on their active roster for the entirety of the upcoming season. If a drafting team wishes to remove a draftee from their 26-man roster at any point during the 2025 campaign, they must first pass him through waivers. If he clears, they must offer him back to his original club for only half the fee they initially paid.

As I outlined in my previous articles, many Rule 5 picks are ultimately offered back to their original teams. Still, it’s a safe bet that at least some selections will survive the entire 2025 season with their new club.

In the final installment of my series on this year’s Rule 5 draft picks, I’m turning my focus to the long shots. It’s more likely than not that each of these guys is eventually offered back to his original team. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of these players find a way to stick in the majors all season.

Complete List of Rule 5 Draft Picks

• White Sox selected RHP Shane Smith from Brewers (Link to Part 1)
• Marlins selected C Liam Hicks from Tigers (Link to Part 1)
• Angels selected LHP Garrett McDaniels from Dodgers
• Athletics selected RHP Noah Murdock from Royals (Link to Part 1)
• Nationals selected RHP Evan Reifert from Rays (Link to Part 2)
• Blue Jays selected RHP Angel Bastardo from Red Sox (Link to Part 1)
• Reds selected UTIL Cooper Bowman from Athletics
• Rays selected LHP Nate Lavender from Mets (Link to Part 1)
• Twins selected RHP Eiberson Castellano from Phillies (Link to Part 2)
• Cubs selected INF Gage Workman from Tigers
• Braves selected RHP Anderson Pilar from Marlins
• Padres selected RHP Juan Nuñez from Orioles (Link to Part 2)
• Brewers selected LHP Connor Thomas from Cardinals (Link to Part 2)
• Phillies selected RHP Mike Vasil from Mets –> Phillies trade Vasil to Rays (Link to Part 2)
• Braves selected SS Christian Cairo from Guardians

The Long Shots

Garrett McDaniels

• Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
• Date of Birth: 12/15/1999 (25)
• Former Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• New Team: Los Angeles Angels

In theory, the Angels should be one of those rebuilding teams that’s happy to let a Rule 5 pick work out his kinks throughout the season. Yet, they still seem to fancy themselves contenders.

To that end, GM Perry Minasian quickly downplayed the likelihood that McDaniels would stick around, telling reporters at the Winter Meetings, “There’s a chance things work out and he makes the team.”

In other words, the Angels will give McDaniels a shot to make the Opening Day roster, but it seems like they’re not going to keep him around unless he really earns it. He put up solid numbers last year (3.19 ERA, 3.42 FIP in 73.1 IP), but considering his lack of experience – he’s only pitched two games above High-A – that’s probably not going to happen.

Further complicating matters is that the southpaw isn’t a great fit for the Angels, who already have lefties Brock Burke, José Quijada, and José Suarez penciled into bullpen roles.

Cooper Bowman

• Position: Utility
• Date of Birth: 1/25/2000 (25)
• Former Team: The Athletics
• New Team: Cincinnati Reds

Bowman is primarily an infielder, and the Reds already have a surplus of such players.

In addition to Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Gavin Lux, and Jeimer Candelario (plus Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base), they have the versatile Santiago Espinal on the bench. Former top prospect Noelvi Marte is also in the mix, as is minor leaguer Tyler Callihan, whom the Reds protected from the Rule 5 draft.

Ultimately, there’s no room for Bowman to compete for a starting job, and he’s unlikely to usurp Espinal as the righty-batting infielder on the bench – primarily because the Reds are already on the hook for Espinal’s $2.4 million salary.

Bowman had a better chance to stick in Cincinnati before the Lux trade (and Austin Hays signing), but now he probably only fits if he can supplant Stuart Fairchild as the backup center fielder. He played a handful of games in center at Triple-A last year, so it’s a possibility, but not necessarily a strong one.

Here’s what Aram Leighton and Jack McMullen wrote about Bowman prior to the draft:

A speedster who can play all over, Bowman was one of the prospects acquired by the Athletics from the Yankees in the 2022 Frankie Montas trade.

Bowman mashed Double-A pitching to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in his age-24 season before being promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas where he struggled mightily. If a team is looking for a bench speedster, Bowman could fit the bill, but his well-below-average exit velocities and struggles in Triple-A make it hard to imagine a team would expect him to fill a more substantial role than that.

Gage Workman

• Position: Infielder
• Date of Birth: 10/24/1999 (25)
• Former Team: Detroit Tigers
• New Team: Chicago Cubs

It’s always an uphill climb for position players taken in the Rule 5 draft, and Workman is no exception.

As things stand, he probably has a spot on Chicago’s bench, but if the team adds another infielder (they were linked to Josh Rojas before he signed with the White Sox), Workman could be out of luck. Even if makes the Opening Day roster, the Cubs have several position player prospects nearing the majors who could push him off the roster when they’re ready to make their debuts.

Anderson Pilar

• Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
• Date of Birth: 3/2/1998 (26)
• Former Team: Miami Marlins
• New Team: Atlanta Braves

Pilar would have to pitch pretty darn well to convince a team as competitive as the Braves to keep him in their bullpen throughout the 2025 season. And considering that even the Marlins left him unprotected from the Rule 5 draft and he fell to 11th pick… well, you can do the math.

The righty pitched well in 2024 (2.64 ERA in 58.0 IP across three levels), but we’re talking about a soon-to-be 27-year-old non-prospect who had never played above High-A until this past year.

Pilar also looked sharp in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, but still, if he manages to stick with the Braves, it will be an incredible testament to their scouting and pitching development — and Pilar’s own improvements, of course.

Christian Cairo

• Position: Shortstop
• Date of Birth: 6/11/2001 (23)
• Former Team: Cleveland Guardians
• New Team: Atlanta Braves

It’s rare that a top-tier contender like Atlanta keeps one Rule 5 pick throughout the season, let alone two. That said, the fact that the Braves made a second pick suggests they’re serious about giving both of their Rule 5 guys a shot.

Still, even if the Braves go into 2025 with Cairo on their roster, there is a good chance he’ll get bumped for a more proven upgrade at some point during the year. That’s just how contending teams do business.