Which Rule 5 Picks Have the Best Chance To Stick on Their New Team’s Roster? Part 1
Fifteen players were selected during the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Who is most likely to stay with their new team throughout 2025?

The Rule 5 draft took place at the MLB Winter Meetings last December. Fourteen teams selected a total of 15 players during the event – 11 pitchers and four position players.
In order to hold onto these players, their new teams must keep them on the active roster for the entirety of the upcoming season. If a drafting team wishes to remove a draftee from their 26-man roster at any point during the 2025 campaign, they must first pass him through waivers. If he clears, they must offer him back to his original club for only half the fee they initially paid.
Many players selected in this winter’s draft will be offered back to their previous clubs at some point in the coming months. That’s not a sign that they were “bad picks,” but simply an inevitable reality of the process.
In some years, the majority of selections are ultimately offered back to their original teams. In other years, more than half the picks stick around.
Last offseason, for instance, 10 players were selected in the Rule 5 draft. Only four were returned to their previous teams. The year prior, 15 players were selected and nine were eventually offered back.
At the same time, it’s a safe bet that at least some Rule 5 selections will survive the entire 2025 season. So, let’s take a look at this year’s picks and see who has a good shot to stick on their new team’s roster.
Complete List of Rule 5 Draft Picks
- White Sox selected RHP Shane Smith from Brewers
- Marlins selected C Liam Hicks from Tigers
- Angels selected LHP Garrett McDaniels from Dodgers
- Athletics selected RHP Noah Murdock from Royals
- Nationals selected RHP Evan Reifert from Rays
- Blue Jays selected RHP Angel Bastardo from Red Sox
- Reds selected UTIL Cooper Bowman from Athletics
- Rays selected LHP Nate Lavender from Mets
- Twins selected RHP Eiberson Castellano from Phillies
- Cubs selected INF Gage Workman from Tigers
- Braves selected RHP Anderson Pilar from Marlins
- Padres selected RHP Juan Nuñez from Orioles
- Brewers selected LHP Connor Thomas from Cardinals
- Phillies selected RHP Mike Vasil from Mets –> Phillies traded Vasil to Rays
- Braves selected SS Christian Cairo from Guardians
Rule 5 Picks with the Best Chances To Stick Around
Shane Smith
- Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
- Date of Birth: 4/4/2000 (24 years old)
- Former Team: Milwaukee Brewers
- New Team: Chicago White Sox
This is a strong pick to stick for several reasons. For one thing, the White Sox picked first in the draft, which means they got their number one target. They could have taken any available player, and they chose Smith. Clearly, they like what he brings to the table.
What’s more, the White Sox have absolutely no delusions of contending in 2025. That means they have no reason not to give this promising young arm a chance. Besides, it’s not as if their pitching staff is overcrowded with talent.
Smith, 25 in April, pitched to a 3.05 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 94.1 innings last year between Double and Triple-A. He split his time between the bullpen and the rotation. He should be able to give the White Sox some much-needed length in 2025, and that should be enough for him to keep his job on the active roster.
Then again, as bad as the White Sox have been the last two years, they weren’t able to hold onto their Rule 5 picks in either 2023 or ’24. That could be a sign that the organization doesn’t prioritize keeping their Rule 5 guys. It’s also a reminder of how unpredictable this whole process can be.
Still, there is no one in a better position to stick with his new club than Smith.
Noah Murdock
- Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
- Date of Birth: 8/20/1998 (26)
- Former Team: Kansas City Royals
- New Team: The Athletics
The A’s aren’t as pitiful as the White Sox, but they’re another non-contender that should try their best to keep their Rule 5 guy around. After all, they’ve kept their Rule 5 picks in each of the past two seasons: Ryan Noda and Mitch Spence.
Furthermore, given the team’s lack of relief depth after Mason Miller and José Leclerc, Murdock shouldn’t have too much competition for a spot at the bottom of the bullpen depth chart.
Here are some of the A’s bullpen options, with projected playing time courtesy of FanGraphs Depth Charts:
Career Stats for Athletics Bullpen Options
Pitcher | IP | SV | ERA | FIP | WAR | Projected IP (2025) |
José Leclerc | 360.1 | 41 | 3.27 | 3.44 | 6.7 | 64.0 |
Mason Miller | 98.1 | 28 | 2.93 | 2.62 | 3.0 | 68.0 |
T.J. McFarland | 530.2 | 1 | 4.10 | 4.16 | 0.9 | 60.0 |
Michel Otañez | 34.0 | 1 | 3.44 | 2.73 | 0.7 | 62.0 |
Tyler Ferguson | 51.1 | 2 | 3.68 | 3.28 | 0.7 | 63.0 |
Hogan Harris | 135.1 | 0 | 4.85 | 4.60 | 0.5 | 53.0 |
Brady Basso | 22.1 | 0 | 4.03 | 3.88 | 0.3 | 52.0 |
Michael Kelly | 52.0 | 0 | 2.94 | 3.71 | 0.3 | 26.0 |
Justin Sterner | 4.0 | 0 | 2.25 | 1.92 | 0.1 | 57.0 |
Jacob Lopez | 22.2 | 1 | 4.76 | 4.67 | 0.1 | 36.0 |
Grant Holman | 15.2 | 0 | 4.02 | 3.87 | 0.1 | 61.0 |
I doubt the A’s would keep Murdock around if he were seriously struggling, but as long he can eat innings, he has a clear path to playing time.
In 2024, his second full season as a reliever, the righty pitched to a 3.16 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 62.2 IP between Double and Triple-A. However, his poor control has always been troubling. His 15.4% walk rate last year would have been a much bigger problem if it weren’t for his unsustainably low home run rate; he faced 267 batters and didn’t give up any long balls.
Even a pitcher like Murdock, who excels at inducing groundballs, is eventually going to give up some home runs. The big question is if he can still find success once the balls start to leave the yard.
Liam Hicks
- Position: Catcher
- Date of Birth: 6/2/1999 (25)
- Former Team: Detroit Tigers
- New Team: Miami Marlins
I’m struggling with how to feel about this pick. On the one hand, the Marlins are in a similar position to the White Sox – they have no reason not to give their Rule 5 guy every chance to stick around.
However, Hicks is a catcher. Simply put, it’s a lot harder to stash a catcher than a pitcher at the back of your 26-man roster. Furthermore, this particular catcher comes with serious questions about his defense.
If the Marlins want to keep him, and if they want him to catch, he’ll have to be their backup catcher in 2025. That would entail starting somewhere between 30 to 50 games. That’s a lot to ask of such an inexperienced young player. More importantly, it might not be what’s best for their young pitching staff.
On the other hand, Miami’s offense looks so thin right now that Hicks might be able to carve out a role for himself as a first baseman/DH (and occasional catcher). He won’t hit for much any power, but his plus contact skills and plate discipline have helped him post well above-average offensive numbers in the minors. If he hits well enough, he could stick on the roster even if he isn’t a regular catcher.
Ultimately, I think Hicks has a good shot to last the season with the Marlins simply because the team has so little hope of contending and so few other options. If he actually manages to be a productive contributor? Even better.
A Strong Chance To Stick Around… On a Technicality
These players could stick with their new teams in 2025, but largely due to a technicality – they’re injured and unlikely to play for most (if not all) of the season.
Angel Bastardo
- Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
- Date of Birth: 6/18/2002 (22)
- Former Team: Boston Red Sox
- New Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Bastardo had Tommy John surgery this past June, so it wouldn’t be hard for the Blue Jays to stash him on the 60-day IL throughout all of 2025. If they do so, they only need to keep him on the active roster for 90 days in 2026 to satisfy the Rule 5 conditions.
What’s more, any time Bastardo spends on the active roster in 2025 reduces that 90-day timeline. In other words, if he spends 30 days with Toronto in 2025, he only needs to spend 60 days on the active roster in 2026 before the Jays can send him back down to the minors.
The young righty offers enough upside (when healthy) that the Blue Jays will surely do their best to keep him around. If nothing else, they have plenty of time to evaluate Bastardo before they have to make any tough decisions.
If Bastardo is ready to return down the stretch and the Blue Jays are competing for a playoff spot, perhaps they’ll decide it’s too risky to put him on the active roster. On the other hand, if the Jays fall out of contention again, they might be able to offer Bastardo some regular run as a starter.
Nate Lavender
- Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
- Date of Birth: 1/20/2000 (25)
- Former Team: New York Mets
- New Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Lavender, another Tommy John patient, had his surgery a bit earlier than Bastardo, making it slightly more likely he will be ready to return in 2025. Still, his injury status significantly increases his chances of sticking around in Tampa Bay — at least through the end of the season.
After all, it’s much easier to make room for an inexperienced arm over a few months than a full season. Moreover, the Rays will have a good sense of the state of their bullpen (and their chances of contending) by the time Lavender is nearing his return.
The southpaw, who has a career 2.41 ERA and 3.55 FIP in 115.2 minor league innings, has expressed optimism that he’ll be game-ready as soon as possible, perhaps as early as June.