Rule 5 Draft Preview: Which Prospects Will Be Selected?

Each offseason, the MLB Winter Meetings are capped by what many casual baseball fans wouldn’t be batting an eye at: the Rule 5 Draft. In essence, the Rule 5 Draft is an opportunity for clubs with less than 40 players already on their 40-man roster to add to their stable of talent from other teams’ pool of players that are not on their current organization’s 40-man.

There are guardrails in place: players that were signed when they were 18 years old or younger (high school draft picks and most International Free Agency signings) are not eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 until the conclusion of their fifth season of professional baseball, while players signed at 19 years old or older (mostly college draft picks) are vulnerable after their fourth season. Additionally, any player selected will cost $100,000 (the selecting team will pay that sum to that player’s previous club) and will have to be on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entirety of the following season.

Pitchers

Yordany Monegro – RHP – Boston Red Sox

2024 Stats (A+): 15 app., 14 GS, 66.0 IP, 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .176 BAA, 11.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Monegro may be as talented as any arm available, but he is also the only name in this article who has not pitched above High-A. Standing at 6-foot-4, Monegro is lanky with a loose, over the top arm action, creating a steep angle with his 93-95 MPH fastballs. That steep angle makes his sinker quite effective but compromises his four-seamer, putting it on an ideal plane for hitters.

Continuing to phase out the four seamer in favor of his sinker which yielded an OPS around .500 last season could help Monegro make the leap to the big leagues, as could his assortment of secondaries, headlined by a plus slider. Monegro closed the year out with a 0.41 ERA over his final 44 High-A innings, holding opponents to a .114 batting average. He may be the furthest away, but with his youth and upside could easily make him worth stashing as a piece that could blossom into a legit rotation option.

Ryan Webb – LHP – Cleveland Guardians

2024 Stats (AA/AAA): 27 app., 25 GS, 141.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .242 BAA, 9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

A crafty southpaw with an excellent changeup, Webb mixes four pitches well to masque a 90-92 MPH fastball. He hides the ball well, with somewhat of a sling shot delivery that also helps his stuff play up. Sporting a 3.13 ERA over 278 2/3 professional innings along with a 26% strikeout rate, Webb has picked up more whiffs than his stuff would imply.

It wouldn’t be surprising for a team in need of pitching to bet on that trend continuing enough for Webb to hold a five spot in a rotation as an innings eater. It only helps his case that he compiled 141.1 innings at the upper levels last season.

Bryan Magdaleno – LHP – Texas Rangers

2024 Stats (A/A+/AA): 36 app., 42.2 IP, 1.27 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .134 BAA, 14.3 K/9, 4.4 BB/9

Magdaleno’s ascension was a sight to behold in the second half of the season, climbing from Low-A to Double-A in a span of two months. It helps that the 23-year-old was the most dominant reliever in baseball from June onward, tossing 25 consecutive scoreless innings across the three levels with a 47% strikeout rate in that span.

He generates an extremely difficult angle for hitters with a cross-body delivery from a low three-quarters release, helping his mid 90s fastball and sweepy slider play up. Magdaleno has both a four seamer and sinker that dominated within the zone against hitters of both-handedness, with left-handed hitters looking particularly lost against his four seamer.

There’s plenty of big league bullpens that could benefit from the addition of Magdaleno if they believe his leap command wise down the stretch is sustainable. Perhaps the most ridiculous stat from Magdaleno’s finish to the season: hitters finished the year 1-for-61 against him with 35 strikeouts.

Tanner Kohlhepp – RHP – Detroit Tigers

2024 Stats (A+): 46 app., 61.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .225 BAA, 11.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9

On paper, Kohlhepp does not look like a candidate to be selected, but it’s an entirely different story when you look beneath the hood. An electrifying three pitch mix, Kohlhepp’s two seam fastball sits 96-98 MPH with run and ride, complemented by an upper 80s gyro slider and changeup that averaged more than 20 inches of horizontal movement.

It was surprising not to see the 25-year-old get promoted from High-A, especially considering how effective he was down the stretch. From July 1st onward, Kohlhepp pitched to a 2.10 ERA while striking out 34% of batters and holding them to a .159 batting average.

Eiberson Castellano – RHP – Philadelphia Phillies

2024 Stats (A+/AA): 22 app., 20 GS, 103 2/3 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, .229 BAA, 11.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Castellano made a leap command wise in 2024, nearly cutting his walk rate in half while upping his strikeout rate by nearly 7%. Unsurprisingly, that resulted in Castellanos best professional season, holding his strong results at the Double-A level.

A four pitch mix, Castellano boasts a pair of impressive secondaries including a mid 80s changeup and a slurvy curveball in the low 80s. Opponents hit a combined .150 against the two offerings with a swinging strike rate of 19%. Castellano’s fastballs sit in the mid 90s, though his four seam shape is inconsistent, sometimes boasting good ride at the top and other times looking like a hybrid between his four seamer and sinker which flirts with the dead zone.

Much more willing to run the sinker in on the hands of righties, Castellano gives same-handed hitters more to think about while he only goes to the four seamer against LHP. Righties hit just .240 against his heater while lefties posted a batting average north of .400. Castellano offsets the wide splits in fastball performance with the aforementioned two secondaries being used at nearly a 60% clip, hedging lefties to a .740 OPS overall versus a .565 OPS vs. righties.

Though he cut the walk rate significantly, Castellano’s long arm action still results in a few too many non-competitive pitches and some inconsistencies shape wise. The 23-year-old’s dominance against righties makes the relief side of things an easy fallback, but his 2024 campaign injected optimism into his outlook as a starter.

Ben Peoples – RHP – Tampa Bay Rays

2024 Stats (AA): 12 GS, 55.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .204 BAA, 9.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

A 22nd round pick in 2019, Peoples received fifth round money to forego college and has produced strong results as a pro when he has been on the mound. The latter part of that sentence is an important caveat as Peoples has missed some time with injury over the last couple seasons.

The 23-year-old right-hander has a unique cut-ride fastball that averages nearly 18 inches of induced vertical break at 93-96 mph. He leans on his fastball heavily, throwing it two thirds of the time, generating good in-zone whiff and chase numbers. Working off of the heater is a cutter at 88-91 mph that is his go-to secondary pitch, though he flashed a changeup that seems to play off of his fastball quite well. It could be an above average offering to lefties if he can find more consistency with it. He will also mix in a slider and curveball a few times per start.

Peoples’ fastball reliance and injury history could make him a relief option for a team. Assuming his stuff ticks up in shorter spurts, Peoples could survive at the big league level with a team potentially still hoping to develop him into a starter longterm.

Alex Santos – RHP – Houston Astros

2024 Stats (AA): 6 app., 5 GS, 23.0 IP, 7.83 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .290 BAA, 24 K, 14 BB

2024 Stats (AFL): 6 app., 3 GS, 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .188 BAA, 26 K, 7 BB

A second round pick in 2022, Santos missed much of the season with an undisclosed injury and has struggled to produce results as a pro. The 22-year-old is a bit of a data darling, boasting above average carry on his fastball from a below average release height along with an intriguing cutter/slider combination.

Santos started to translate the pitch data into results in the Arizona Fall League, punching out 35% of batters in 17 2/3 innings. A fly ball pitcher, Santos kept the ball in the yard–a difficult task in the desert–allowing just one home run and four extra base hits. He would be a riskier player for a team to add to their active roster relative to some of the other arms mentioned, but the pitch shapes and previous prospect pedigree could be enticing to some.

Zach Messinger – RHP – New York Yankees

2024 Stats (AA): 27 app., 25 GS, 150.0 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .207 BAA, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

More of the innings-eater archetype, Messinger’s two breaking balls help him overcome a fringy fastball, enjoying his best pro season as a 24-year-old at Double-A. Sitting 91-93 MPH with his fastball, Messinger’s release height of 5.8 feet is lower than you’d expect from a 6-foot-6 right-hander, but otherwise the fastball characteristics are nothing to write home about.

His gyro slider and sweeper stand out, picking up 101 of his 142 strikeouts on the season with two iterations of his slider with a strike rate just a hair under 70%. Messinger’s average fastball velocity jumped a tick ticked up in the second half of the season, grabbing many more 93s. The changeup is far too inconsistent, but the gyro slider lessens the need for a changeup to spell lefties. Having thrown 150 innings last season, Messinger could be appealing to a rebuilding team looking for innings.

Evan Reifert – RHP – Tampa Bay Rays

2024 Stats (AA): 35 app., 41.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .155 BAA, 14.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Put simply, Reifert has one of the best sliders in Minor League Baseball. Since the start of the 2022 season, opponents are 14-for-183 (.077 batting average) against the pitch with a 67% strikeout rate. Reifert’s unique arm action really helps the pitch play up, almost throwing it like a football, generating slurvy, action that darts what seems like as late as possible.

Reifert made progress with his fastball, leaning into a sinker that he commanded much better than he had historically managed his four seamer, while still mixing in the four seamer to buzz the top. After an injury wiped out his 2023 season, Reifert recorded his highest innings total since his first full pro season in 2021. His slider would immediately be a wipeout big league pitch.

Dane Acker – RHP – Texas Rangers

2024 Stats (AA): 26 app., 18 GS, 97.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .236 BAA, 9.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

A fourth round pick by the A’s in 2020’s shortened draft, Acker was acquired by the Rangers along with Khris Davis and Jonah Heim in exchange for Elvis Andrus, Aramis Garcia and cash during the 2021 offseason.

Acker has battled injury issues since the trade, undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2021 season. The Rangers managed Acker’s innings carefully in 2023 as the right-hander continued to produce solid results, pitching to a 2.54 ERA between 67 1/3 innings at the High-A and Double-A levels. The 25-year-old carried his momentum into 2024, pitching a career-high 97 1/3 innings at Double-A.

In an effort to manage his innings, the Rangers had Acker work in relief over his final eight appearances of the year, where his stuff ticked up, closing out the season with seven consecutive scoreless outings (12.1 IP).

Though he throws from an above average release height (6.2 ft.), Acker’s 93-95 MPH fastball produces above average carry and a flat VAA for pitchers in his release bucket. He commands his secondaries extraordinarily well, turning in a combined 67% strike rate between his changeup, cutter and curveball last season. The changeup is Acker’s best pitch, averaging more than 10 inches of vertical separation and another five of horizontal.

Acker’s gyro cutter looked particularly impressive in his shorter relief spurts, ticking up to the upper 80s. Between his injury history and how loud the stuff was in shorter spurts, a team could take a shot on Acker with the idea of converting him into a reliever. Much like Justin Slaten, who was selected from the Rangers by the Red Sox in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, Acker could be a unique relief weapon capable of going multiple innings and or pitching in leverage if the stuff holds.

Andrew Moore – RHP – Cincinnati Reds

2024 Stats (A+/AA): 34 app, 59.1 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.433 WHIP, .200 BAA, 14.1 K/9, 6.4 BB/9

Included in the Luis Castillo return from the Mariners, Moore has always possessed swing and miss stuff, but with far too many walks. His 2024 campaign was no exception, punching out nearly 36% of batters, while walking just a hair under 16%. His release is incredibly unique, releasing the ball from a 5.1 foot height despite his 6-foot-5 frame. He gets good ride and run from his well below average release, along with a cutter, slider and curveball that all standout from a pitch shape and whiff perspective.

On top of the standout characteristics within his arsenal, Moore averaged 96 mph with his heater in 2024, touching triple digits. The stuff is good enough to get big league hitters out tomorrow, the questions is whether a team believes they can help be around the zone enough to do so.

Elison Joseph – RHP – Atlanta Braves

2024 Stats (A+/AA): 39 app., 53 IP, 2.04 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, .173 BAA, 12.9 K/9, 4.8 BB/9

Joseph has a two pitch combo that is primed for a big league bullpen, starting with his upper 90s fastball that generates above average carry from a below average release height. Between the velocity and pitch shape, Joseph was able to rack up a ridiculous 36% in zone whiff rate in 2024. Joseph’s 85-87 mph slider may be an even more nasty offering, backed by the 23-year-old’s reliance on it (55% usage) and the opponents results (.145 batting average).

The biggest hurdle for Joseph is his command, particularly of his fastball. He has the tendency to overthrow the fastball, spraying it all around the zone. Upon reaching Double-A, Joseph was even more overwhelming for hitters, yielding just a 1.33 ERA over 20 appearances with a 35% strikeout rate. Joseph is another example of an arm with high leverage stuff, but a walk rate that could be a little too intimidating for a team to carry him on the 26 man roster.

Hitters

Ryan Ward – OF/1B – Los Angeles Dodgers

2024 Stats (AAA): .258/.317/.543, 22 2B, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 11-14 SB, 7.9 BB%, 27.1 K%, 103 wRC+

A left-handed bat who drives the ball in the air to all fields, Ward has taken advantage of the way the ball flies in the PCL, launching 54 home runs since the start of the 2023 season for Oklahoma City. Ward’s aggressive approach and limited defensive utility left him off of the Dodgers 40 man roster, though his above average power from the left side with at least the ability to play either corner outfield spot and first base could be enticing enough for a rebuilding team to take a shot on a bulk platoon bat. Against right-handed pitching last season, Ward produced a .942 OPS along with 28 of his 33 homers.

Christian Franklin – OF – Chicago Cubs

2024 Stats (AA): 98 G, .268/.398/.366, 15 2B, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 34-41 SB, 16.6% BB%, 20.8% K%, 135 wRC+

Franklin walked his way to a 135 wRC+ in a Southern League that was a graveyard for hitters in 2024. Elite swing decisions and strong centerfield defense make Franklin an intriguing candidate, however his swing is rough mechanically, resulting in roughly a 60% ground ball rate and challenges to pull the ball in the air. Franklin offers above average bat speed, producing an average exit velocity of 89 mph last season.

With such an innate feel for the zone, plus wheels and the ability to go get it in the outfield, a team could snag Franklin with the belief that he can at least land as a fourth outfielder sooner rather than later, especially if a team feels like they can help refine his swing mechanics.

Kala’i Rosario – OF – Minnesota Twins

2024 Stats (A/AA): 69 G, .238/.329/.428, 19 2B, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 11.4% BB%, 29.6% K%, 113 wRC+

Big time raw power would be the main attraction to Rosario, who boasted a 90th percentile exit velocity of 108 MPH last season along with a chase rate below 20%, but Rosario’s 55% ground ball rate limits his ability to consistently get into it, along with his swing and miss issues.

While feels as though a selection of Rosario would be a bit ambitious, he has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .900 OPS since the start of the 2023 season and is a fine defender in either corner with a plus arm. Ultimately, his swing and miss and lack of an upper-level track record may make him too risky of a selection.

Blaine Crim – 1B – Texas Rangers

2024 Stats (AAA): 134 G, .277/.370/.469, 33 2B, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 7-8 SB, 11.9% BB%, 17.2% K%, 111 wRC+

Likely the most sound offensive profile of the names listed in this preview, Crim offers above average power, the ability to mash fastballs and decent swing decisions. The 27-year-old hit .305/.398/.540 against heaters in 2024 and while the results may dip somewhat significantly against spin, he recognizes it well enough to hedge that concern, chasing breaking balls at a 23% clip.

Crim is limited to first base, with enough offensive upside to potentially carry the weight of the position for a second division team. The former 19th round pick has mashed at every stop, with a wRC+ of 122 in his 562 games across all levels. His exit velocities are comfortably above average with an average just shy of 90 MPH and a 90th percentile of 106 MPH in 2024.

Bob Seymour – 1B – Tampa Bay Rays

2024 Stats (AA/AAA): 123 G, .281/.351/.523, 24 2B, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 9.0% BB%, 30.6% K%, 140 wRC+

Standing at 6-foot-4, 275 pounds, Seymour can absolutely punish baseballs and hits them in the air consistently. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 107 MPH was one of the better figures in the Rays system, however he undermines his power and passable feel to hit with a swing-happy approach that pushed his chase rate near 40%.

Seymour is also limited to a 1B/DH profile, which does not help his case, though he has produced steady numbers left on left and closed out the year with an OPS north of 1.000 over his final 40 Triple-A games.

Cooper Bowman – UTIL – Athletics

2024 Stats (AA/AAA): 118 G, .262/.351/.419, 26 2B, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 43-49 SB, 11.1% BB%, 21.4% K%, 112 wRC+

A speedster who can play all over, Bowman was one of the prospects acquired by the Athletics from the Yankees in the 2022 Frankie Montas trade. Bowman mashed Double-A pitching to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in his age 24 season before being promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas where he struggled mightily. If a team is looking for a bench speedster, Bowman could fit the bill, but his well below average exit velocities and struggles in Triple-A make it hard to imagine a team would expect him to fill a more substantial role than that.