Which Division Races Will Last Until the End of the Season?

The 2025 MLB regular season is nearing its final month, meaning the postseason hunt is on for many teams.

While some teams will be focused on securing a wild-card bid, there are several teams still locked into intriguing division battles at the moment.

While the new advancements in the Wild-Card Era may have diminished the value of winning a division, considering one winner still must participate in the wild-card rounds, baseball is still up there for sports in which it matters most.

This year, some divisions are all but wrapped up, with a team or two still in the postseason hunt but instead going after that aforementioned wild-card bid.

Other divisions, though, are tightly contested at the moment and could very well be gearing up for an even tighter race down the home stretch.

Standings were taken prior to play on August 25.

Divisions That Are All but Wrapped up as September Approaches

Let’s get the basics out of the way with divisions whose leaders have such a large cushion that a lead change at this point in the season seems inconceivable.

According to FanGraphs’ latest MLB playoff odds, only two divisions don’t have leader who holds an 80% chance or higher to win their respective divisions, but more on those two divisions later.

In the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays enter the final week of August with an 81.1% of chance of winning their first division title since 2015, sitting high and mighty over the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

Then there’s the AL Central, which seems to be the most locked-up division in baseball and has been for some time. The Detroit Tigers have seemingly not let up on the gas from the get-go this season.

The moving to the National League side of things, they bare many similarities to the American League with the East and Central divisions looking increasingly settled as the season matures.

Aided by a 2-14 stretch from the New York Mets from the end of July into the middle of August, the Philadelphia Phillies look to have created an insurmountable division lead in the NL East.

Then in the Central, a once tightly contested division has been blown wide open for the Milwaukee Brewers amid a fantastic second half, as the once mighty-looking Chicago Cubs now looked poised to begin their return to the postseason in the wild-card round.

This means MLB will have a “Wild West” on their hands in both leagues, as the AL West and NL West look as though they could come down to the wire.

Divisions That Could Go Down to the Wire

AL West

This is hands down the tightest division in all of baseball right now, as the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are in quite the dog fight at the moment.

Entering play on Monday, the Astros sat just 72-59, two games up on the 70-61 Mariners, and both have plenty of reason believe that they can finish in the divisions’ top spot (even if FanGraphs’ gives the slight edge to the current leaders).

The Astros are a rejuvenated ball club that stocked up at the trade deadline with plenty of acquisitions, including third baseman Carlos Correa and outfielder Jesús Sánchez.

This adds to their offensive core that is led by Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña, their pitching core spearheaded by Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, and a bullpen anchored by Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader (when healthy).

On the other hand, the Mariners bolstered themselves just as much if not more at the deadline by acquiring two of the biggest names on the market in Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor.

They already had plenty of star power in this lineup with MVP-hopeful Cal Raleigh along with the electrifying duo Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena. Pair with that the fact that they still bolster one of the strongest rotations in baseball with the quartet of Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo, and they can be as dangerous of a team as any.

Then there’s the fact they feature one of the most electrifying arms in the game to anchor their bullpen in two-time All-Star Andrés Muñoz.

It’s hard to really determine who has the edge from a roster makeup perspective, so let’s dive into the remaining schedules for each of these teams down the stretch.

According to Tankathon’s strength of schedule calculator, the Astros have the slight edge over the Mariners in this regard, but it’s only slight. They hold one of the league’s easier schedules with the seventh-easiest remaining slate with an opponents winning percentage of .478.

When I say slight edge though, I mean slight edge, as you don’t have to look far up the board to find the Seattle; the M’s hold the ninth-easiest schedule with an opponents winning percentage of .486.

What it ultimately could come down to is the remaining three-game weekend set from September 19-21 when Seattle heads to Houston. With Houston holding just a two-game lead over the Mariners right now and not a ton to differentiate between the two, this final matchup between the two could be the deciding factor in determining how the AL West will shake out.

NL West

Moving from the tightest division, we now shift to the most surprisingly contested division in the NL West.

This isn’t meant to be a slight on any team in particular, but after an offseason where the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers went all-out in free agency once again, and the San Diego Padres had a winter defined by financial hardships, there’s a certain degree of shock that these two teams are neck and neck at the moment.

But with identical 74-57 records through 131 games this season, that’s precisely the scenario we find ourselves in as September approaches. Like the AL West, there is also plenty of reason to believe that either squad has a real case to take home the division crown.

We could sit here and talk for hours about how much star power the big-money Dodgers have, but it’s well documented on how sound of unit they are at full health. But health is the key issue here.

While the big three MVPs in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman might at full health, some key complementary bats in Max Muncy and Tommy Edman are still on the injured list. While the hope is surely that they’ll be able to be re-inserted into the lineup by season’s end, the impact of their losses will surely be felt until said returns.

The in the rotation, Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell have all made their returns to the staff, but key names like Roki Sasaki and Tony Gonsolin still sit on the injured list. Then in the bullpen, they still feature the likes of Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Kirby Yates and so on, they still are not at full strength with Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Brusdar Graterol on the shelf.

Looking at the Padres now, they may not have the same level of star power as the Dodgers, but they can still go toe-to-toe with most top-end talent cores in the league. They seem to face a lot less injury turmoil as their in-state, inner-division rivals and are also a rebuilt entity after GM A.J. Preller got busy at the trade deadline.

Now, they still do face their fair share of hardships. Jackson Merrill just landed on the IL mere days ago with a sprained ankle, joining the likes of an injured list featuring Michael King and of course Joe Musgrove. However, the Dodgers immense injury woes seem to be bring them back down to earth toward the rest of the competition.

Diving into the strength of schedules, it’s hard not to think that the Padres also have an advantage here too.

Looking back at Tankathon’s calculator, the Padres new-look second-half roster holds the easiest remaining schedule out of anyone in baseball, with an opponent’s winning percentage of just .448.

That being said, the Dodgers have a fairly easy schedule themselves in the season’s final week. Their .479 opponent’s winning percentage has them also in the top-five easiest schedules in baseball at fifth.

After squaring off against each other for the final time this season over the weekend, the head-to-head aspect isn’t a factor anymore, making this division all the more difficult to predict. It’s worth noting, though, that the Dodgers did take the season series against the Padres, should that come into play for the division crown.

Don’t let the nearly 33% difference in FanGraphs’ division winning probability fool you, this no longer seems like the Dodgers’ division to lose anymore. This seems poised to be razor thin down to the end.