Where Does Jordan Lawlar Fit in the D-Backs Plans?

For the past few seasons, the Arizona Diamondbacks have slowly been rebuilding their farm system, and gathering the pieces to become a competitive team once again. The Diamondbacks have worked very hard to do this internally, using the MLB draft to garner a lot of their young talent.

Most notably, the team’s superstar outfielder, Corbin Carroll, was drafted by the D-Backs in the first round of the 2019 MLB draft.

During this rebuilding phase, the D-Backs also stumbled upon the number six pick in the 2021 MLB draft, a class filled with exciting talent. The club drafted prep shortstop Jordan Lawlar with this pick, and since then, Lawlar has become one of the better players in this entire draft.

But, after missing nearly all of the 2024 season due to injuries, Lawlar’s role in the future was put into question. This became even more true, when the D-Backs inked their current shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo, to a four-year deal worth $45 million.

This leaves many fans wondering what the future holds for Lawlar, as it seems a lot less certain than it once had.

Breaking Down Geraldo Perdomo’s Game

When it comes to the definition of a league-average player, the first player that comes to my mind is Geraldo Perdomo. For three of his four seasons at the big league level so far, Perdomo has finished with a wRC+ near 100, showcasing his consistency.

The best of his four seasons came in 2023, where he made his first All-Star game, and showcased some potential in his time on the field. In 144 games, Perdomo hit six homers, stole 16 bases, slashed .246/.353/.359 with a 98 wRC+, and a career-high 2.3 fWAR.

Perdomo followed up his All-Star season with another solid season, despite facing some injuries that limited him to just 98 games played.

In this stretch, Perdomo hit three homers, slashed .273/.344/.374, posting a 101 wRC+. Perdomo was also a two-win player, and if he had stayed healthy, it’s reasonable to assume he would’ve beaten his previous career-high fWAR.

The best parts of Perdomo’s game are seen in his plate discipline. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate.

Although it wasn’t nearly that high in the percentile rankings, Perdomo also demonstrated a solid walk rate, adding to this plate discipline skill set.

Aside from his plate discipline though, Perdomo has struggled in other areas of his game.

For example, he ranks in the 10th percentile or worse in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and launch angle sweet spot rate. With Lawlar potentially profiling to have more pop, this could be Perdomo’s eventual downfall.

Although some of the underlying metrics aren’t the best, Perdomo has still been a productive player in his time with the D-Backs. If Lawlar continues to struggle to stay on the field, he may be able to give him a run for his money at shortstop.

Breaking Down Jordan Lawlar’s Game

Since he was drafted by the D-Backs, it’s been very clear that Jordan Lawlar has the potential to become one of the best shortstops in all of baseball. In his time as a prospect, Lawlar has regularly seen himself inside the top 20 prospects in baseball on most rankings, showing the promise he possesses.

He’s received this high praise in our prospect rankings as well, with Aram Leighton saying the following regarding how he profiles for the future.

Lawlar has the ceiling of an All-Star, capable of impacting the game in a variety of ways. If he can tap into 20-25 home-run power in the big leagues, we could see some shades of a Trea Turner-lite.

Aram Leighton talks about Lawlar’s future.

The first time we saw this potential 20-25 home run player shine through was in the 2022 season when Lawlar began to showcase what he was capable of. In 100 games, he’d hit 16 homers, slash .303/.401/.509 with a 138 wRC+. He did this while jumping between Low-A, High-A, and Double-A.

He’d follow up this season by showcasing a similar level of production in 2023, where Lawlar played 105 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He’d finally reach the 20-homer threshold, slash .278/.378/.496 with a 126 wRC+, cementing himself as the D-Backs shortstop of the future.

As a reward for his success, Lawlar made his MLB debut at the end of the season, but he struggled mightily. In 14 games, he’d post a wRC+ of -5, alongside other bad marks.

Despite his struggles in a small sample size, Lawlar was featured in the D-Backs World Series run, even making the World Series roster.

After this season, Lawlar’s injuries I briefly mentioned earlier began, wrecking his 2024 season. In Spring Training, he’d undergo thumb surgery, missing the first two months of the season, Then, on his road to recovery, he suffered a hamstring injury that derailed any shot he had at returning.

Although his 2024 season may have put his skills in the rearview mirror, the type of player he could be at his peak still shines through. Just as Aram said, he possesses 20-25 home run potential, with even more upside once he continues to age and improve with time.

His bat-to-ball skills have always been one of the key areas that stood out to me, as he’s always maintained the ability to regularly barrel up the ball. He needs to improve his pitch recognition, but once he does, he’s poised to become one of the better young players in the sport.

Where Does Lawlar Fit Into the Future Plans?

Although we’ve established that both players have the potential to stick at shortstop for the D-Backs, one of them will have to change positions. Especially given Perdomo’s new extension keeping him in Arizona for at least the next four seasons.

With Lawlar on the brink of becoming a full-time Major Leaguer, I think it makes the most sense to have Lawlar be the one to switch positions. Lawlar is an elite athlete and certainly possesses the glove to play another infield position if given the time to get more reps.

It would be logical to have a shortstop shift to second base, but with Ketel Marte manning the position, there’s no path for this to be an option for Lawlar currently.

This leaves the D-Backs with likely one other option, and that is to move Lawlar to third base.

Currently, the third base position is home to Eugenio Suárez, which makes things slightly more challenging to work out. But, with his contract expiring at the end of 2025, this gives the team a lot more flexibility.

If the D-Backs decided to take this route and work on moving Lawlar to third base, this would give them a lot of flexibility. Lawlar has a season to learn the position and acclimate himself to big-league-caliber pitching in the process.

Also, Lawlar played a few games at third base in the minors as well, meaning that he already has the ability to make the switch. The challenge will be moving to third full time, and not just a handful of games which is what he did in the minors.

The D-Backs’ GM Mike Hazen also had some interesting things to say regarding Lawlar’s future on the team following Perdomo’s extension.

Hazen said, “And when Jordan Lawlar is ready to be on this team, Jordan Lawlar’s gonna be on this team.”

From the quote, it’s clear that no matter where Lawlar ends up on the field, his path to the roster has not changed. When he’s ready for his shot, he’s going to get it in the big leagues.

D-Backs management has also indicated that Lawlar will likely spend the beginning of the season in Triple-A Reno, which makes sense given his lack of time on the field last season. If he heads back to Triple-A, this could be the first place we see Lawlar begin to learn a new position.

If this ends up happening, this could give Lawlar the perfect opportunity to prepare to make his way onto the team as a third baseman by 2026, assuming the club parts ways with Suárez.

Although there are still a lot of question marks ahead for Lawlar and other paths to the major leagues, he’s likely going to make an impact on the team at some point in 2025. Whether this is after some time learning a new position at Triple-A, or in some other capacity, it has yet to be determined.

In all of the uncertainty surrounding Lawlar’s future with the team, the one thing that remains true is that Jordan Lawlar is poised to become a star and a key contributor to the next generation of D-Backs baseball.