What to Expect From Xavier Edwards After Impressive Breakout

It’s no secret that the Miami Marlins are having a miserable 2024 season. Miami is the worst team in the National League by winning percentage. As a team offensively, they rank second to last in both fWAR and wRC+. Their hitters are averaging together for a slash line of .239/.295/.368.

After a failed trial with Tim Anderson that resulted in the former batting champion being DFA’d, Miami had to find another option to take the plate appearances for the shortstop position on a daily basis.

They turned to 25-year-old Xavier Edwards. The switch-hitting shortstop has been nothing shy of outstanding since getting recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville.

Edwards made his big league debut as a 23-year-old in 2023. He played in 30 games for the Marlins and posted an 81 wRC+. When Anderson was let go, the Marlins decided to give Edwards another run in the show. He was hitting to the tune of a 117 wRC+ through 119 plate appearances in Jacksonville.

Now, after 44 big league games, Edwards has posted an unbelievable 144 wRC+. That’s actually the best mark on the team since that date.

His unexpected surge of success has led many fans to ask the question; is Edwards legit, or is this simply a flash in the pan?

The Success of Xavier Edwards in 2024

Despite playing in only 47 games for the Marlins, Edwards is currently second on the team in fWAR. He’s accumulated 1.9 fWAR in 2024, putting him on pace to accrue over five and a half wins above replacement if he were to have a full season sample size.

He’s been far and away their best hitter, too. Among Marlins with at least 190 plate appearances, his wRC+ is 30 points higher than the next qualified hitter. The second player on the team is Jake Burger with a 111 wRC+.

One interesting thing about Edwards’ newfound success is the lack of power output. He ranks 22nd in all of baseball among players with a minimum of 190 plate appearances in wRC+. Of the top 25 hitters with the same qualification, only one player has less than 11 homers: Edwards.

He’s hit just one home run in the big leagues this season. This hasn’t impacted his production at all. Thanks to his plus-hit tool, he’s been able to make contact in the zone at an 89% rate. He’s also running a 91.7% Z-Contact rate against fastballs, leading to a .371 xwOBA against that pitch type.

Edwards isn’t just making contact on pitches within the zone, he’s making heaps of contact no matter where the pitch is located. He’s posting an 85.3% contact rate, ranking 35th in the league.

Edwards has become one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball in 2024. He’s maintained a chase rate of 22.3%, that figure ranks among the elite players in the sport when it comes to plate discipline.

His ability to take pitches out of the zone has led him to the ninth-highest BB% in the game. The eight players who rank ahead of him in that category are some of the most feared hitters in the game. Hitters like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts make up the list of guys ahead of Edwards regarding drawing walks.

His value doesn’t exclusively come at the plate. Edwards has swiped 22 bases in 47 games this season. His stolen base rate per game is just under Elly De La Cruz‘s, the league’s leader in stolen bases in 2024.

His 2024 season has been unexpectedly incredible. With this being said, is this performance something that we can expect from Edwards in the coming years, or should we savor his success and assume that there is no way he can continue this level of production?

Projecting Edwards For The Future

Of the 25 best hitters in the league by wRC+, Edwards has some of the worst batted ball data of the group. This isn’t to say that you must hit the ball like Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani in order to be a successful hitter. However, barreling up the baseball does have a tight correlation with success at the plate.

Here’s a look at the top 25 hitters by wRC+ by Barrel%. As you can see, Edwards has the lowest barrel rate of any hitter in the top 25. It’s also not very close. The lone player in his cluster is Steven Kwan. Kwan has put on a terrific season without power output thanks to his A1 ability to make contact. The Guardians outfielder ranks first among qualified hitters in Z-Contact% this season.

The figure also shows that every hitter except Kwan and Edwards has at least an above-average barrel rate.

Edwards, as we know, is a plus hitter when it comes to bat-to-ball skills. However, he’s not nearly as elite as Kwan when it comes to contact.

There’s a much looser correlation for Z-Contact% to wRC+ output but in the case of projecting Edwards for the future, this graph is very important. Kwan’s 97% Z-Contact rate is what is allowing him to be able to consistently sit among the best of the best when it comes to offensive production. Even though he’s not running into much power, he’s hitting the ball into play a ton, leading to production.

Kwan’s Barrel% is 2.8% in 2024, while Edwards’ is 2.1%. So, Kwan is making far more contact and barreling the ball up at a rate that is doubled of Edwards’.

The good news is that Edwards has displayed outstanding plate discipline, this will make it easier to project him to run higher than average OBP and xwOBA numbers in the season to come. He flashed this skill in the minor leagues when he was in the Rays’ organization. Between his time at Triple-A from 2022-2023, Edwards averaged a BB% of around 11%.

Something to look out for as the season goes on is how pitchers approach Edwards. As of August 21st, nearly 64% of the pitches he’s seen have been a fastball variant. He’s shown off excellent contact rates and done plenty of damage to those pitches.

However, other pitch types have caused problems for the switch-hitter.

He’s running a concerning xwOBA of just .193 against offspeed offerings. He’s been great with the plate discipline against that pitch grouping but the quality of contact takes a noticeable dip.

Edwards has been a breath of life into a Marlins team that has been dying for consistent production, especially from shortstop, for a considerable amount of time. I think Edwards will certainly cool off and 2025 will be a “step-back” in a way.

It would be unfair to expect this continued output from Edwards in 2025. His lack of even average batted ball metrics makes him a tough candidate to maintain his elite wRC+ figures.

With that being said, Edwards has an advanced feel for the strike zone and has proven to be a mature and patient hitter in the box. He’s been the best hitter for Miami in 2024 and should be one of their better hitters next season.

Pair his excellent on-base skills with his speed on the base paths and you get an underrated middle infielder in return. If 2025 can be a season where Edwards walks over 10% and the time and continues to show aggression in the stolen base department, he’ll be incredibly valuable even if he’s not posting an absurd slash line.