Top Landing Spots For Free Agent Tyler O’Neill

Tyler O’Neill is one of the most fascinating free agents of the 2024-25 offseason. Back in 2021, O’Neill flashed his five-tool skillset and looked like a potential MVP candidate in the making for the St. Louis Cardinals.

But his performance took a drastic step back the following two seasons. He struggled to stay on the field, and even when he was available, his production was inconsistent at best. He looked like a shell of the player he once was in 2021.

The Cardinals traded O’Neill to the Boston Red Sox last offseason, and the change did wonders for the 29-year-old. He recaptured his power stroke, and that helped boost his value in a huge way heading into his first go at free agency.

O’Neill resembled his 2021 form with Boston, finishing in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate at 48.8%. Relatedly, his average exit velocity was nearly two miles-per-hour higher than in 2023.

He was in the top two percent of baseball in barrel rate (17.3%), and this outstanding quality of contact led to 31 homers and 18 doubles across 473 plate appearances, yielding an ISO of .270 (fifth in MLB, min. 450 PA).

So, why wouldn’t every team want to throw a long-term contract at O’Neill this winter? Well, as was alluded to, there’s plenty of uncertainty that comes with his profile.

He was in the bottom two percent of baseball in strikeout rate at a whopping 33.6%. He had a whiff rate that was in the fifth percentile (34.1%) as well. What’s more, he’s regressed as a defender over the years, and 2024 was the worst defensive season of his seven-year career. He finished in the 17th percentile for outs above average (-4).

This past year was also the first time since 2021 that O’Neill played more than 100 games in a season – a feat he’s accomplished just twice throughout his career.

It’s clear that Tyler O’Neill’s ceiling is still sky-high, but he also comes with a substantial amount of risk.

Which teams will be willing to take a shot on the 29-year-old outfielder this winter as one of the biggest high-risk, high-reward free agents of the offseason? Let’s take a look at his top suitors.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are slowly ascending from their rebuild, and they could have their eye on postseason contention in the near future. Following their second consecutive 76-win season in 2024, there are pieces to build around for the Pirates, but they need to address their lineup if they wish to take a step forward in 2025.

Pittsburgh’s offense lacked pop in a big way in 2024. Across Major League Baseball, the Pirates finished 26th in ISO (.137); 27th in OPS (.672) and slugging percentage (.371); and 28th in wRC+ (86).

What’s more, the Pirates need help in the outfield following the non-tender of both Connor Joe and Bryan De La Cruz. They’re also not going to be in the mix for the most expensive players on the market, as they tend to work on tight budget constraints.

That’s where Tyler O’Neill comes into play, as he checks each and every one of those boxes as a potential free agent target for Pittsburgh.

He would immediately slide into the lineup as the team’s best power hitter, and that’s huge for a lineup that lacked a consistent power threat this past season. He can provide experience in a corner outfield position alongside Oneil Cruz, who is making his transition to center field, and he’s going to be cheaper than some of the other more coveted outfielders on the market.

Now, if O’Neill is in high demand, the Pirates might not be able to win a bidding war against other teams. However, organizations will likely be hesitant to shell out a long-term contract to O’Neill given the aforementioned concerns.

Perhaps Pittsburgh offers him a slightly longer contract at a lesser average annual value (AAV) as a way to provide O’Neill with a little more security at the expense of yearly earnings.

Pittsburgh has arguably the best young pitching situation in baseball heading into 2025. Now is the time to build an offense around them that is capable of getting them back to the postseason.

O’Neill makes a lot of sense in terms of cost and filling a crucial roster need, and he would provide a bit more excitement for the Pirates offense heading into Opening Day.

Toronto Blue Jays

It was a disappointing 2024 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, and their lackluster offense had a lot to do with them falling short of expectations. Specifically, it was their group of outfielders that greatly underperformed this past season.

In 2024, Toronto’s outfield ranked 25th in wRC+ (87); 26th in slugging percentage (.366); 28th in OPS (.651); and 29th in on-base percentage (.286). While the organization did bring in a pair of young and intriguing outfielders, Jonatan Clase and Joey Loperfido, at last year’s trade deadline, it’s still a positional group they should be looking to upgrade this winter.

The Blue Jays still have some scary bats in their lineup that they should be looking to build around. Adding O’Neill’s power alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette would go a long way in giving that lineup a bit more length, as well as raising its ceiling.

Additionally, they won’t have to shell out a long-term deal for O’Neill either. Among the teams mentioned on this list, the Blue Jays will likely be willing to pay O’Neill the most money to come play for them.

Signing O’Neill to a short-term, high-AAV contract makes a lot of sense given the current state of the Blue Jays roster. Guerrero and Bichette are both set to hit the open market following the 2025 season, meaning it will be decision time very soon on two of their most important players.

If O’Neill repeats his performance from this past season, Bichette has a bounceback at the plate, and Guerrero builds upon his terrific 2024 campaign, then this offense can be lethal.

On the flip side, if things go south in 2025 and the Blue Jays want to shake things up next offseason, then they won’t have long-term money committed to O’Neill either.

Being from Canada, perhaps coming to Toronto could be a deal sweetener for O’Neill if he is choosing between two organizations. In many ways, it’s a deal that makes a lot of sense for both parties.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles‘ window to compete is right now, and that means they have a very important offseason ahead of them as they work to bolster their roster to compete for a World Series title.

However, with outfielder Anthony Santander hitting the open market, there’s a chance they lose one of their most valuable power bats when they can ill-afford to take a step back offensively.

Santander was Baltimore’s lone hitter with more than 100 RBI (102) in 2024. He also launched 44 homers and led the team in ISO (.271). If they can’t bring back their switch-hitting slugger, then they need to have a contingency plan in place to replace his run production.

Behind Santander, O’Neill would be the Orioles’ best look to fill that vacancy of long balls. What’s more, as it currently stands, Baltimore’s entire projected starting outfield is made up exclusively of left-handed hitters.

Colton Cowser (left field), Cedric Mullins (center field), and Heston Kjerstad (right field) are all lefty bats. Additionally, Mullins is set to hit free agency following the 2025 season and is unlikely to factor into Baltimore’s long-term plans.

Adding another right-handed bat into the fold would not only help an offense looking to compete, but it would give the O’s outfield a bit more versatility. While he is still just 29 years old, O’Neill would provide some veteran leadership for Baltimore’s young hitters.

Retaining Santander is likely the Orioles’ desire, but in the event that he heads elsewhere this winter, O’Neill would be a great fallback option for a team looking for better postseason results in 2025.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers were the talk of baseball for the final month of the 2024 season. After putting together a truly magical end-of-year run, the Tigers will be looking to build upon their young talent and return to the playoffs once again in 2025.

Detroit’s lineup is exciting, young, and has plenty of room for improvement heading into Opening Day 2025. However, it’s not perfect, and bringing in a right-handed masher would go a long way in raising both the floor and the ceiling of this offense.

In 2024, the Tigers had an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. They ranked 26th in MLB in OBP (.298), SLG (.362), OPS (.660), and ISO (.132) against southpaws as well. Adding an experienced outfielder into the mix – specifically a right-handed hitter – would help address a hole in their offense from a season ago.

Against lefties in 2024, O’Neill slashed .313/.429/.750 for an OPS of 1.179 to go with a 215 wRC+ and 16 homers in 156 plate appearances. Throughout his seven-year career, O’Neill is hitting .270 with a .547 slugging percentage and a .923 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Detroit would welcome his influx of athleticism into the lineup, and he would also help take some pressure off of their younger hitters to perform. Despite making the postseason in 2024, the Tigers’ offense left a lot to be desired, and O’Neill can be the sparkplug that helps get them back to October.

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals were one of baseball’s best stories in 2024. They went from winning just 56 games in 2023 to advancing all the way to the ALDS just a season later. Moreover, they did so with an outfield that was one of the worst in MLB in terms of offensive production.

In 2024, the Royals’ outfield ranked dead last in OPS (.643) and wOBA (.282). They were also second-to-last in batting average (.219), slugging percentage (.360), and wRC+ (78).

Needless to say, for an organization that must invest in the lineup and build around Bobby Witt Jr. this offseason, outfield is the obvious spot to attack.

What’s more, similar to Detroit, Kansas City struggled mightily against left-handed pitching in 2024. They were bottom five in MLB in wRC+ (84) and had an OPS and wOBA of .672 and .291, respectively, against southpaws this past season.

As it currently stands, the Royals’ starting outfield is projected to be MJ Melendez (LHB) in left field, Kyle Isbel (LHB) in center field, and Hunter Renfroe (RHB) in right field.

Even further, outside of Kansas City’s big three on offense (Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez) there’s far too much uncertainty in this lineup if the Royals wish to get back to the postseason in 2025.

As has been the theme with the other smaller market teams mentioned in this article, O’Neill should be in the Royals’ price range, and he has the upside that they’re looking for that could make him the perfect high-risk, high-reward addition for a team that appears to be on the rise.