What Is the Blue Jays Best Course of Action at the Trade Deadline?

It’s easy to see that the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most disappointing clubs this season. Heading into the campaign, the Jays were sitting at a 49.0% chance of making the postseason via FanGraphs and were looking to play October baseball for the third consecutive season. After Thursday’s demoralizing 13-0 defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, that percentage has now dropped to 0.9% – with the Jays sporting a 47-56 record and 14 games back of the Baltimore Orioles.

With a roster full of talented players, the club has struggled to find any consistency or traction on multiple fronts that have seen them on the wrong side of the .500 mark.

The Jays bullpen owns a 4.95 ERA, ranked second worst in the league and ahead of only the Colorado Rockies, with opponents posting a .244 average (seventh-worst). The Jays relief corps leads the league in home runs allowed (61) and has struggled to stay healthy or find the 2023 form that made them one of the top groupings. Jordan Romano is likely on the shelf until late into the campaign (if he returns at all) while Erik Swanson has struggled on the mound after starting the season on the IL as well.

In the batter’s box, only two players own an OPS over .800 – Spencer Horwitz (.865) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.859) – while George Springer was statistically one of the worst bats in the league heading into the end of June but has since turned things completely around.

Davis Schneider has not found the same on-base percentage that separated him from the group last year and Bo Bichette has struggled on the field and staying healthy, with a calf strain sending him to the IL twice this season as he struggles with career-low numbers across the board. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a bright spot on the roster who is posting career numbers in the batter’s box, is also on the IL while top prospect Orelvis Martinez is currently suspended until late September due to PEDs.

Overall, nothing is going right for the Blue Jays outside of Guerrero turning himself back into a power bat after a slow start to the season. Season ticket prices are increasing, which has angered the fanbase, and a postseason win dry spell spanning back to 2016 has fans calling for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro’s firings as a means to try and turn things around.

While Atkins is likely safe for the time being (that decision likely goes back on the table this winter), the trade deadline is quickly approaching and the organization is turning into sellers for the first time since the late 2010s, when the organization was rebuilding from the veteran squad left behind by Alex Anthopoulos.

What should the Blue Jays trade deadline look like? Here are a few steps the club should be taking as the July 30th deadline falls into view.

Step One: Identify the Keepers From the Trade Candidates

Per Spotrac, the Blue Jays have eight players on the books with guaranteed contracts that amount to just over $130 million in adjusted payroll. With players like Guerrero, Romano, Daulton Varsho, and Alejandro Kirk slated for raises through arbitration this winter, that figure will come in under the $230 million the club sits at right now but there is no guarantee that Rogers will allow the team to spend upwards of that dollar figure given the recent renovations and the poor showing on the field this season.

There is some benefit to the likes of Schneider, Horwitz, and the other Jays prospects finding themselves on the big league roster in the form of financial savings given their pre-arb status but if the Jays want to contend again in 2025 (which I will touch on later), running it back with the same crew is not an option.

The Blue Jays are going to be sellers this go around and the team needs to decide who will be available over the coming days.

The biggest trade asset the Blue Jays currently employ is Yusei Kikuchi, who has turned things around after an abysmal 2022 campaign in the first year of his three-year contract with the club.

While he was one of the best arms out of the gate for the 2024 season, the Japanese product has fallen on hard times as of late – authoring a 7.34 ERA through his last seven starts while allowing 42 hits and 28 earned runs. The strikeout stuff is still going strong amidst the struggles (10.1 K/9) and he has found his command on the mound all season long (2.3 BB/9) but the recent showings could drop his return value. He is set to make at least one more start before the trade deadline and a strong outing will go a long way for the Blue Jays in terms of value in the trade market.

Another potential blue-chip player likely available is catcher Danny Jansen. The Wisconsin-raised backstop boasts a 98th percentile blocks above average at the plate and is celebrated by the Blue Jays pitching staff for his ability to command the catcher position. This defensive ability combined with his excellent chase rates makes him an ideal target even though he is a fan favourite (and some argue that he should be extended instead of traded).

Similar to Kikuchi, Jansen has struggled as of late as well, amassing a .134/.232/.196 slash line since the start of June (112 plate appearances) while posting a .428 OPS and a .162 BAbip. Should the Jays look to trade Jansen, he will likely be a package deal – perhaps with Kikuchi or with one of the other Jays relievers likely available – to maximize return.

Joining Kikuchi and Jansen on the trade block are those on expiring contracts – Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, and Trevor Richards – with the club already getting started before the weekend when they dealt Yimi García to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for OF prospect Jonatan Clase and C Jacob Sharp

García put up stellar numbers so far in 2024 and has stepped up with the numerous injuries that have fallen on the Blue Jays bullpen (2.70 ERA through 30 innings). He did miss some time with an elbow injury but recently returned and will be healthy and ready to go for the Mariners.

Richards is another interesting name considering how he was pitching heading into July. That is where things have taken a turn, as the right-hander has been a shadow of his former self on the mound (11 earned runs through eight outings) and has almost taken himself out of the trade block.

Both Turner and Kiermaier will likely be on the move from the position player forefront. The Jays even floated Kiermaier in waivers earlier this month but couldn’t find a taker for his remaining contract. Turner likely adds a bat for any club looking for veteran experience on the bench while Kiermaier would be a postseason club’s ideal fourth outfielder with his plus speed and outstanding defensive metrics for late-game substitutions. Both players likely don’t yield much in terms of value on the trade front but both players on the move free up space for internal players like Horwitz, Schneider, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez to continue playing but also helps with the salary cap – a conversation that the Jays front office is likely keeping in mind heading into the winter.

While the Jays wouldn’t owe much if they were to exceed the competitive balance tax, they would be doing so for a second straight season. That percent tax on the overage climbs from 20 to 30 percent (which again is not much) but should the Jays wish to contend again and spend over the $237 million CBT line set for 2024, the penalty becomes 50%, with additional surcharges should they exceed the base threshold by $20+ million and draft pick consequences if it is $60 million.

While there is no guarantee that the Jays will pass the CBT next year or even come close to being $60 million over, if the organization can find a way to reset their level in a season filled with disappointment, it goes a long way in the immediate future in terms of cash savings – especially if the Jays front office decides to plan big in free agency (another big ‘who knows’ in the grand scheme of things).

Outside of these players, the Jays will also have to decide if they want to move any players with additional years of control – especially if teams come calling for players like Guerrero, Bichette, or Chris Bassitt.

Now the Blue Jays have stated they are not entertaining offers on players with contract control, we all know things can change when the right offer is presented (Juan Soto anyone?) and it would be foolish for the Jays to not at least entertain these proposals. The likelihood is the Blue Jays will set a high price that other teams will walk away from but a team on the bubble could get desperate and if the Jays can find a player either in Triple-A or just starting in the MLB worth value, again it would be foolish to not look into the idea further.

Interestingly enough, a name floating out in the trade rumour wire is Chad Green – which makes sense given his increased role in the back end of the bullpen given the injuries and poor performance. The Yankees appear interested in a reunion with the right-hander and while he technically slots into the ‘multiple years’ category, a team willing to overpay for a bullpen arm for a postseason run with contract control could net a return that helps the Jays sooner than later if they wish to contend in the same period.

That all depends on how the long-term goals shape up, which seem to be up in the air more than anything this time around. The Jays organization continues to preach contending in 2025 but until some decisions are made surrounding the roster, that picture is murkier than the forecast for a summer weekend in Toronto.

Step Two: Identify Long-Term Goal; Is Contending in 2025 an Option?

After a rebuild in the late 2010s, the Blue Jays fanbase has been antsy for postseason success that has eluded the organization since 2016.

This idea combined with the ‘win it all or nothing’ mentality of Toronto sports fans has general manager Ross Atkins on the hot seat and rightfully so given the lack of postseason success since he took office late in 2015.

Looking ahead, the Jays are in a tough scenario after the rebuild. The club doesn’t have any of their core players under contract long-term while boasting a pitching staff that is on the wrong side of their prime years. Factor in a farm system that ranks towards the bottom of the league and the picture becomes even murkier for what this team is looking to do over the next few seasons. That’s not to say the Jays haven’t developed well as of late but they have used those prospects in deals over the past few years to try and build a contending organization, sending away the likes of Simeon Woods-Richardson, Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, and Gunnar Hoglund to name a few.

Contending in 2025 makes sense for the Blue Jays mostly because Guerrero and Bichette are still under contract for that season but the argument to ‘blow it all up’ remains in the picture because of how after next season, both players are slated to hit free agency along with Bassitt and Romano while Kevin Gausman joins the group the year after. Adding to the intrigue is José Berríos, who had a player option following the ’26 season should the exact scenario arise where the Jays aren’t contending and Guerrero and Bichette are no longer around.

For the Jays, determining the next steps for the franchise isn’t as cut and dry as one would likely hope for mostly because it remains to be seen whether the current front office group will be around to execute the plan, especially if Atkins is cut loose this winter.

Should the Jays wish to contend in 2025, as the current reports insist, then the Jays will need to be active this winter to add to the current roster regardless of internal extension talks.

We have already seen that ‘running it back’ with the current group isn’t going to cut it in the AL East and with a strong free agent group on the docket for this offseason, there should be no excuse for the Blue Jays to not add to both sides of the ball if the contending mentality is still on the table. The Jays have some payroll flexibility with Kikuchi, Richards, García, Turner, Kiermaier, and Jansen all slated for free agency.

Regardless of whether it is one or both of the players, the Blue Jays front office needs to build this team around one of these two if they wish to contend. Letting both walk in free agency following the 2025 season would be a major failure on the front office’s part, so if extension talks continue to break down, there is a realistic chance that a rebuild is likely on the horizon with a farm system that is in serious need of restocking. That conversation likely takes place at next summer’s deadline barring a blowaway trade offer over the next week, which seems unlikely given the current stance of the organization (i.e. nobody with control is being moved) and with Bichette’s stock as low as it is given his struggles in 2024.

Defining those long-term goals seems like a weird concept to consider at the trade deadline but considering the lack of stability for the core along with a front office that could be shaken up sooner than later has the Blue Jays in a precarious position, one that could be a bit more fluid should a changing of the guard take place.

While that change may happen later this winter, if the goal is to win in 2025, the Jays need to extend at least one-star player, trade at the deadline for assets that can help next year and not a few years down the line, and be active this winter in a robust free agent market to compensate for the lack of star talent in the upper levels of the farm system.

Easier said than done, right?

Step Three: Win the trade deadline

With numerous players on one-year deals, the Blue Jays are going to be active this trade deadline. There is no real reason why Kikuchi, Richards, Turner, and Kiermaier should be on this team following July 30th and if the Jays don’t plan to keep Jansen around long-term, then he should be gone as well to maximize the defined goal of contending in 2025 and adding some prospect talent back into the farm system.

With the recent addition of a third Wild Card team in each league, there are more buyers than sellers at the trade deadline as of late – a benefit to a team like the Jays who will be dealing this summer. Ross Atkins and co. have already dipped their toes into the waters by dealing García and the return has been solid in Clase and Sharp. The Jays lack outfield depth and getting a speed threat in Clase who can hit from both sides of the plate is just what this club needed, especially since he can be a big league threat down the stretch for the Blue Jays after the deadline.

We have already seen a few trades go down before the Jays deal and in comparison, the Blue Jays fared well. The Washington Nationals kicked things off by trading Hunter Harvey to the Kansas City Royals for Cayden Wallace (#2 prospect on MLB Pipeline) and a Competitive Balance A pick while the Diamondbacks acquired AJ Puk from the Marlins in exchange for two prospects in INF Deyvison De Los Santos and OF Andrew Pintar – both ranked in the top-30 prospect lists for the Diamondbacks.

Both Puk and Harvey have some contract control past this season, so their deals may not reflect as heavily towards what García or Richards may bring but if the Jays were to move Green this summer, he could fetch something in the neighborhood of what the Marlins and Nationals acquired given his additional years of contract control combined with veteran experience (and $10.5 million price tag).

The Jays also have a starter available, and if teams looking for Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty, or Tarik Skubal strike out, then pivoting to Kikuchi seems like an easy next step for any contender looking for little risk of contract control past next season. Add in a catcher with Jansen and a package deal can kill two birds with one stone in the form of a defence first mind behind the plate to go along with a southpaw that can strike out batters at a high clip when things are running smoothly.

The return is where things can go astray, as the Jays need to find a way to squeeze out as much as they can from opposing teams for prospect/player talent that helps sooner than later for the organization. Acquiring depth in the form of prospects in the lower levels of the minor leagues does not help with the contending goals and the Jays have enough talent down there as it is, with a boost needed higher up in the organizational depth charts.

Regardless of who gets traded or where the fact remains that the Blue Jays need to find a way to win this trade deadline if they truly want to field a strong team in 2025. Once the trade deadline passes the club can start scheming for next season and give some prospects a chance to shine to round out the year but it all starts right here and what the club can get in return for their expiring deals.