How This Year’s Top Teams Can Avoid the “Curse” of the First-Round Bye

Since MLB implemented the new 12-team postseason format in 2022, three of the four World Series participants have been Wild Card teams.

The Braves and Dodgers earned first-round byes in both 2022 and ’23. Both times, those powerhouse division winners lost to Wild Card teams (from their own divisions, no less!) in the NLDS.

Things have gone a little better for the top teams in the AL. The Yankees and Astros earned the first-round byes in 2022, and they both made it to the ALCS. The Astros, of course, came out on top and went on to beat the Phillies in the World Series.

The following year, however, only one bye team made it to the ALCS – the Astros again. This time, they lost to the Rangers, the very team they beat in the AL West to earn their first-round bye in the first place.

The Rangers went on to beat fellow Wild Card team the Diamondbacks to win the first World Series title in franchise history.

Before we go any further, let’s get one thing straight: The first-round bye is a massive advantage. I won’t entertain the idea that the extra time off between the regular season and division series puts anyone at a disadvantage.

Not only do teams with a first-round bye get to avoid the three-game Wild Card series, but they also have the chance to align their rotations perfectly. Most teams that play in the Wild Card round won’t have their ace or number two starter available for the first game of the division series.

However, that’s not to say there’s no downside to the time off. Rest is important, but too much rest can make players rusty. Why do you think the Phillies had Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola start the final two games of the regular season after they had already clinched a first-round bye? Baseball players need to play.

All that to say, the first-round bye is absolutely an advantage. But smart teams understand they need to use that advantage properly to get the most out of it.

So, with that in mind, let’s talk about some keys for each of the four first-round bye teams as they wait for the division series.

New York Yankees

Key: Focus On Judge and Soto

Ever since the New York Yankees acquired Juan Soto last December, the big question has been whether or not the rest of their lineup is strong enough to support Soto and Aaron Judge.

The answer? Yes and no.

On the one hand, the Yankees finished with the best record in the American League and the third-best record in baseball. They won the AL East and earned a first-round bye. This team has all the talent necessary to win it all.

On the other hand, the rest of New York’s offense behind Judge and Soto is severely lacking. The truth is, the rest of the Yankees’ lineup isn’t strong enough to support Judge and Soto. But Judge and Soto have proven they don’t really need the support.

So, after a full season to learn the limitations of their roster, the Yankees need to play to their strengths. That means dedicating as much effort as possible to making sure Judge and Soto have a plan to demolish whatever the opposition’s pitching staff may throw at them.

If Judge and Soto are hitting, the Yankees are dominant. But if they’re silenced, the Yankees are in serious trouble.

Key: Pick the Best Number Four

The Yankees will almost surely have the pitching advantage in Game 1 of the ALDS. Gerrit Cole will take the mound against the Royals’ or Orioles’ number three or four starter.

Meanwhile, the Yankees will almost surely be at a disadvantage in Game 2, when Carlos Rodón is likely to take the ball against Cole Ragans or Corbin Burnes.

Game 3 will be more of a toss-up, with Clarke Schmidt likely to take the mound against either Seth Lugo or Zach Eflin. Lugo has been terrific this season, while Eflin has a longer track record as a starter and more postseason experience. However, Schmidt has had quite the breakout season, despite the lat strain that kept him out for several months in the middle of the year.

Game 4 is when the Yankees will have to make a difficult decision: Luis Gil or Marcus Stroman?

At first glance, it seems like an obvious choice. Gil has had a phenomenal rookie season, while Stroman has struggled at times throughout the year. However, Gil has shown signs of tiring down the stretch. He has a 5.03 ERA and 6.05 FIP in his last seven starts.

Stroman has had his fair share of struggles as well, but he is a durable veteran with postseason experience.

Gil has more upside, but Stroman might be the safer choice. Gil would also be more valuable than Stroman out of the bullpen, where his fastball would likely hit the high 90s.

One additional consideration is that the Yankees also could use Cole again in Game 4 on regular rest (another benefit of the first-round bye). However, they might prefer to give their ace an extra day off, especially if they aren’t facing elimination.

Ultimately, the smartest thing for the Yankees to do is spend their time off closely considering all possible matchups with both the Royals and Orioles to decide the most effective pitching plan.

Cleveland Guardians

Key: Make a Bullpen Plan

There’s no doubt the Cleveland Guardians’ rotation is a major weakness. They finished the season ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.40 ERA and 4.51 FIP.

However, the Guardians’ bullpen is an incredible strength. Their collective 2.57 ERA was the best in baseball by more than half a run. Their 1.31 ERA in September was even better.

In order for Cleveland to go far in October, manager Stephen Vogt needs to make the most of his bullpen without overusing his best relievers. He needs a quick hook for his starters, but not such a quick hook that his bullpen has to take on more work than it can handle.

So, the top priority for the Guardians over the next few days should be mapping out a detailed plan – and several equally detailed contingency plans – for how to deploy the bullpen in the ALDS and beyond.

That means a clear plan for how often Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis can pitch, as well as how long they can pitch and which hitters on the Astros or Tigers they’re best-suited to face.

It means a clear plan for how to get the best results out of every other reliever in the bullpen.

It also means having a clear emergency plan in case one of Cleveland’s starters needs to be pulled early, in case a game goes deep into extra innings, or god forbid, in case one of Clase, Smith, or Gaddis suffers an injury.

The Guardians’ bullpen is a tremendous resource. Good bullpen management could be the difference between this team going far and going home.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Key: Rest the Bullpen

This one is nice and simple. The Los Angeles Dodgers relied on their bullpen heavily down the stretch. As they dealt with an ever-increasing number of injuries to their starting rotation, the arm barn picked up the slack.

The Dodgers led the NL in relief innings in September. They also led MLB in total reliever appearances. As such, they should benefit tremendously from some extra time off.

It will be important for the Dodgers to keep their pitchers sharp over the next few days, but perhaps a little more rest and a little less throwing will do this bullpen some good.

Key: Develop a Plan of Attack for Games 3 and 4

The 2024 Dodgers are all about the offense, and bats like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman will take this team far. In order for them to do that, however, the pitchers need to keep them in the game.

That shouldn’t be a problem in Games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, when the Dodgers have Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to rely on. After that, manager Dave Roberts needs to think carefully about his plan of attack for the rest of the series.

Walker Buehler likely takes the ball in Game 3. The two-time All-Star has overcome several major injuries over the past few years, and his results in 2024 have been mixed to say the least.

On the bright side, Buehler looked sharper than he has in a long time in his final three starts of the season, tossing 16.1 innings with 15 strikeouts and a 3.31 ERA. Still, Roberts will have to keep a close eye and possibly execute a quick hook with the right-hander.

Then there’s a potential Game 4. Landon Knack seems to be the most likely starter, although its possible the Dodgers opt to start Flaherty on short rest instead – especially if they’re facing elimination.

Knack has a 5.14 ERA and 4.74 FIP over five appearances since his most recent call-up. That said, his 3.65 ERA in 69.0 IP on the season is a little more promising. Still, he probably has an even shorter leash than Buehler, especially if the bullpen is well-rested enough to cover five or six innings.

Figuring out how to set up his rotation and get the most out of Buehler and Knack should be Roberts’ top priority between now and Saturday.

Philadelphia Phillies

Key: Line Up the Rotation Properly

Like I’ve repeated several times by now, one of the biggest advantages of the first-round bye is getting to set up your rotation for the division series.

This is perhaps less important to the Philadelphia Phillies, who have, arguably, the strongest rotation in the playoffs. However, manager Rob Thomson still has at least one critical decision to make.

Zack Wheeler is getting the start in Game 1. That’s indisputable.

But Game 2? That’s a bigger question. Aaron Nola is the obvious choice. However, breakout star Cristopher Sánchez has had a better season than Nola. He’s also left-handed (as is No. 4 starter Ranger Súarez) so having Sánchez start Game 2 would allow the Phillies to split up their lefties and righties.

What’s more, Sánchez has pretty dramatic home/away splits this season, with a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park and a 5.02 ERA on the road. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but why mess with a good thing? If Sánchez starts Game 2, he gets to start at home.

On the other hand, Thomson also has to consider the clubhouse ramifications of picking the inexperienced Sánchez over the veteran Nola. As he explained, “If Sanchy starts at home here, how does that affect Nola? How does that affect the rest of the clubhouse, that they know that this big-time guy isn’t going in Game 2?”

Ultimately, choosing between two great pitchers is the kind of tough decision all managers would love to make. Still, that doesn’t make Thomson’s decision any less important.

Key: Don’t Lose Momentum

Truth be told, this could be a key for all four teams. However, the Phillies are the only one of these four that knows what it’s like to be a Wild Card entrant in the 12-team postseason format. They know what it’s like to sweep the Wild Card series and bring that momentum with them into the next round.

This time around, the Phillies will have to play the NLDS without that feeling. Hopefully the momentum from a 95-win season and NL East title is enough, but these players – I’m looking at you, chief vibes officer Garrett Stubbs – are going to have to do things a little differently to keep the excitement flowing in the clubhouse over the next few days.