Top Notes From the Miami Marlins ZiPS Projections for 2025

On the surface, it’s a bit difficult to look at the Miami Marlins and their 62-win season in 2024 and like what you see. However, if you squint your eyes a little bit harder, you may find that the organization did a decent job of upgrading around the edges both during and after the year.

Jake Burger and Jesus Luzardo have both been traded this offseason, landing the Marlins a handful of pieces that could help them in the near future. Burger landed them two infield prospects and an intriguing lefty starter, while Luzardo netted a highly-touted infield prospect in Starlyn Caba (MLB Pipeline No. 81) and an intriguing outfield up-and-comer.

Don’t get it twisted, though, this is not a team that will even sniff contention in the upcoming year, even if they deserve a round of applause for capitalizing on their tradeable assets. Still, there have been some incremental improvements here and there – primarily that young talent acquired via trade – that could very well pay dividends for the club by the time their next contention window rolls around.

As part of a series here at Just Baseball, we’ve been looking around the league at ZiPS projections for the upcoming year and picking out the most important notes and nuggets. For those of you that need a refresher on what ZiPS is, check out a deeper explanation here. Long story short, it’s the best of the best when it comes to preseason projections.

Today, we’re going to dive in to what ZiPS has to say on the Marlins.

Marlins ZiPS: Position Players

• ZiPS is buying into a Jesus Sanchez bounce-back – Last year, only 23 players struck out more frequently than Sanchez did. He managed to post a wRC+ of 100, but a lot of holes were poked in his game. In the coming season, ZiPS likes Sanchez a lot, projecting that he’ll raise his home run and RBI totals while simultaneously walking more and striking out less. The 2.2 fWAR he’s projected for looks so much better than the 1.4 he finished with in 2024.

• Xavier Edwards seems to be the real deal – It’s taken a while, but Edwards is finally starting to deliver on the sky-high potential he showed as a prospect coming up with the Rays. He’s got no power to speak of, but ZiPS fully expects him to lean into his speed and sharp sense of pitch-recognition at the plate. He’s projected to lower his strikeout rate by 4% (down to 13.7%) while stealing 25 bases and being a positive contributor on offense, defense, and the basepaths.

• Don’t expect this lineup to hit for much power – The Marlins hit just 150 home runs last year, good for 27th in the league. ZiPS is forecasting much of the same in 2025, as just one player projected to be in their everyday lineup is penciled in for 20 or more home runs. In his first full year on the Marlins, Connor Norby is projected to hit 20 home runs while driving in 75 and scoring 90 runs of his own. The only other player tabbed for 20 or more big flies is Deyvison De Los Santos, who’s likely to open the year in Triple-A.

Marlins ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Pitchers

• This starting rotation is not looking good – Marlins starters finished dead last in FIP and fWAR last year, as well as second-last in ERA. ZiPS feels that that’s also going to remain largely the same, as just one starter projects to make 25 or more starts (Cal Quantrill). Three of the five starters are in line for ERAs and FIPs around 4.50 in the coming season.

• Sandy Alcantara is back, but not all the way – Finally working his way back from Tommy John, the return of Alcantara is one of the biggest Marlins storylines to follow. He’s going to slot right back in as the team’s ace, but ZiPS doesn’t immediately buy a return to his peak numbers from 2021 and 2022. The right-hander projects to make 24 starts with a 3.49 ERA and 3.1 fWAR through 157 innings. That’ll easily lead the team, but he doesn’t quite look like the Cy Young contender he was in the recent past. Surely that’ll change in short order, and it could even result in him being traded for a haul.

• Where are all the strikeouts? – According to ZiPS, the Marlins are going to field a starting rotation made entirely of groundball pitchers. At least, that’s what the story tells when you see that there’s no starter projected for a K/9 higher than 9.48. This is likely because of significant injury concerns surrounding basically every starter on the staff, including a few depth ones. Alcantara leads the way in innings pitched, but every other arm is at 135 or lower, so this could be a tough year to be a starter on the Marlins.

Relief Pitchers

• A new face comes forward as the new closer – There aren’t many save opportunities to go around for a last-place team like the Marlins, but ZiPS tabs Calvin Faucher as the club’s Tanner Scott replacement. Faucher logged six saves in a Scott-less bullpen in the second half of last season, but he’s in line for the majority of saves now. 22 saves in 48 appearances with a 3.91 ERA is about as much as the Marlins can hope for out of their new closer.

• ZiPS buys into Andrew Nardi turning into a machine – The Marlins’ starting pitching and bullpen was rough last season, and it seems that 2025 is going to tell a similar story. However, ZiPS loves Nardi, who will easily be the club’s best reliever in the coming season. The left-hander projects for 57 appearances with 11.38 K/9 and a strand rate of nearly 75%. The highest strand rate in the league amongst relievers is 79.1%, so he’s not far off from that mark at all.

• Declan Cronin‘s home run prevention is one of one – Last year, Cronin’s 4.35 ERA told one story, but his 104 ERA+, 2.58 FIP, and 3.28 SIERA told another. He didn’t allow his first home run until September 15th, and didn’t surrender another after that. He finished second in the league in HR/9 (behind Orioles lefty Cionel Perez) and ZiPS thinks he’s got a 0.69 HR/9 up his sleeve in the coming season, surrendering five longballs in 65 innings of work. He’s actually one of four relievers ZiPS projects for an HR/9 of 0.99 or lower.

Closing Thoughts

You likely don’t need me to tell you that the 2025 Marlins are not going to be a very good team. However, they’ve made some necessary additions and are now ready to get full seasons out of a lot of their new faces.

ZiPS isn’t projecting stardom from basically anybody on the team. Again, you don’t need a projection system to tell you that’s the case. However, there are a few storylines that’ll be worth monitoring.

Can Sandy Alcantara fully bounce back? What about Jesus Sanchez? Is Xavier Edwards legit? What about some of these intriguing relievers?

This is a team that won’t be devoid of intrigue. Don’t expect contention, but also don’t fully take your eyes off of them as the season winds on. It won’t be pretty, but the very beginning stages of a turnaround may be coming together before our eyes.