The Rangers’ Pitching Staff Is Already in a Tight Spot

At the beginning of last week, the Texas Rangers‘ starting rotation was healthy and considered by many to be a strong suit of the ball club heading into 2025. Fast forward a few days, and uncertainty reigns in the pitching staff.

What a difference a week can make, going from AL West favorites to now having so many questions that need to be answered.

The Rangers looked to dodge the injury bug early in the week when Tyler Mahle was scratched from his scheduled start but then was able to throw in a backfield game just a few days later. A collective sigh of relief was heard coming from the Rangers fandom.

That sense of comfort would soon be erased. First it was Cody Bradford being scratched from his start on Wednesday. Imagining showed no structural damage, but it was announced that he would be shut down for a few days.

However, over the weekend, those few days turned into four weeks of not throwing, pushing his return to action much further into the regular season.

Then the big blow (no pun intended) came off the bat of Colorado Rockies slugger Michael Toglia. He smashed a Jon Gray pitch right back at the Rangers hurler at 106 mph. The liner caught Gray in the right wrist and broke it. Gray has unfortunately become the pitching version of Josh Jung for the Rangers when it comes to unlucky injuries.

The preliminary timeframe is that Gray will not do any baseball activities for at least six weeks. With the break being on his throwing arm, it will likely be even longer. When Gray does finally start coming back, it will take a while to get back into shape and throwing at a major league level. This loss is one that no one saw coming.

The Texas Rangers’ Current Starting Rotation

The three pitchers that are still locks for the rotation to start the season are veterans Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Tyler Mahle. Both deGrom and Mahle are starting their first full season after coming back from Tommy John surgeries.

That is a solid group, but who is going to be joining them?

Here is how manager Bruce Bochey put it: “I’ll get with [president of baseball operations Chris Young] and we’ll talk about our situation here. I don’t have anything to give you right now, but, obviously, we’re going to have to make an adjustment here.”

Adjustments are coming for sure. Jack Leiter was likely to start the season paired up with someone like deGrom — who will be on an innings restriction himself — and could now very well find himself in the rotation.

The Rangers tend to play their cards close to their vest and don’t give away information until they absolutely must. With that being said, it appears that Leiter, who was the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year last season, is the front runner for one of the two open starter spots.

The Battle for the Fifth Spot in the Rotation

Internally, the Rangers do have several options for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, Adrian Houser, Patrick Murphy, and Gerson Garabito are all names that have been floating around.

Houser might have the clubhouse lead, as he has not only had a solid spring but also has 104 MLB starts over his career. In Cactus League play this year, Houser has recorded seven strikeouts and four walks to go with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 10.2 innings of work.

Dunning hasn’t had a great spring but has looked sharp at times in his career. Last season was rough for him, as he posted a 5.31 ERA just a year after posting a 3.70 ERA. Dunning’s stellar 2023 campaign earned himself the Texas Rangers Pitcher of the Year honors.

At least for now it sounds like the Rangers would rather leave Dunning in the ‘pen as a long man, but that could easily change.

Murphy has been lights out this spring. In 10 innings of work, he has yet to allow an earned run while recording nine strikeouts, only one walk, and has a WHIP of 0.60. It sure looks like he will find himself in the mix of things moving forward, but it is still unclear in what capacity.

It should be pointed out that Murphy has 35 big league appearances, but they have all come in relief. He hasn’t started a significant number of games since making 27 minor league starts back in 2018.

Another arm that will more than likely find his way into the rotation, a long relief role, or both is Garabito. He made his MLB debut last season and pitched well at times. This spring, across 8.2 innings, he has 10 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP.

Young Guns Who Could Contribute

Rocker was mentioned earlier as a potential fifth starter. It is absolutely possible that he makes the Opening Day roster either as a starter or as a reliever. It is also quite possible that Rocker starts the season in Triple-A Round Rock.

Rocker flew through the minor leagues late last season, eventually getting all the way to Arlington by the end of the year

However, this spring has been an extremely different story for Rocker. In only 4.1 innings of “A” game work, Rocker has given up 12 hits and 11 earned runs, giving him an atrocious 22.85 ERA.

Of course, it’s a small sample size. On the flip side, his great performance late last year was also a relatively small sample size.

There is little to make anyone believe that Rocker isn’t going to end up being great, but his struggles this spring does make you pause for a moment. And with Rocker being on an innings restriction across the season, perhaps a start in the minors where he can be managed early on might be the best choice.

The question will be if, with the current state of the big league staff, the Rangers will have that luxury.

One other flame-throwing youngster that could mix into the big league staff sooner rather than later is Emiliano Teodo. He has been hitting 100 mph this spring and has looked sharp. Teodo likes the big stage and has the stuff to shine. How soon he finds himself in Arlington will depend on his continued progress and the state of the Rangers’ pitching staff.

External Options to Consider

A free agent signing like Kyle Gibson, for example, is probably not a real option with the self-imposed luxury tax threshold.

There is always a chance that a trade could take place, but it would have to move some salary from the Rangers’ end and would more than likely be for a back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher at best.

The more likely external scenario is that the Rangers will be able to sign a few lower-end veterans to minor league deals over the next few weeks as spring training winds down. They wouldn’t give the big league club immediate help, but the signings would help replenish the depth that the Rangers were looking for heading into the season.

A Strain on the Bullpen

One of the key issues that these rotation injuries are causing is that it is forcing some of the quality long guys into the rotation. With both deGrom and Mahle, along with Rocker, coming back from Tommy John, there is going to be limited innings thrown by the starters.

In a day and age where starters don’t go as long as they used to, the Rangers could be looking at having their starters pitch even fewer innings than most. That will only add more strain on a Rangers bullpen that is already questionable.

Texas’ bullpen has the potential to be better than many think, but if they are being pushed to their limit from the very beginning of the season, that strain could take its toll on this pitching staff.

The Early Schedule for the Rangers is Not Pitcher Friendly

The first four weeks of the Rangers’ 2025 schedule includes an off day each week. That is great news for the Rangers, as they are going to be juggling their pitching staff and workloads. However, that easing into the season comes to an abrupt halt come April 22.

From April 22 to May 28, the Rangers have 35 games in 37 days. That stretch would be a gauntlet for even a healthy team, but it will be even more challenging for one that is already being pieced together. Of those 35 games, 18 will be on the road and 17 will be at home.

Texas will hope to have their pitching somewhat in order over the first month before that long stretch of games occur. The team will no doubt have a frequent shuttle going back and forth I-35 from Arligton to Round Rock as they navigate having fresh arms.