Spencer Arrighetti’s Continued Success Would Go a Long Way for the Astros

The Houston Astros have finished first or second in the AL West each year since 2016. A team that has built a sustainable winner from the ground up and won two World Series is not all too familiar with its current spot near the bottom with the Angels.

It might only be May 26, but I think it is safe to say this season is a wash for Houston. Injuries have derailed their hopes early, and the depth from a weak farm system will not be enough to keep the Astros afloat. Now, it’s time to decide who stays and who goes. Which players are moved at the deadline, and which ones can establish themselves as part of the future.

As for Spencer Arrighetti, he’s looking like a fixture in the rotation for years to come.

A 2021 sixth-round pick, Arrighetti debuted in 2024, starting 28 games and pitching to a 4.53 ERA and 4.18 FIP while striking out 10.61 batters per nine. Injuries limited him to seven starts in 2025, but he’s healthy now and showing promise.

Has it been perfect? Far from it. But, in a season in which Houston’s rotation has lost the majority of its arms, Arrighetti has stepped up and shown an ability that makes me believe the Astros have a piece for their rotation moving forward.

A Work in Progress

High-velocity fastballs have been the trend in modern baseball, but you can find success in other ways. In fact, in 2026, we have seen a number of arms finding success with movement and pitch sequencing that should remind you of an older school brand of pitching.

In some ways, Arrighetti is similar to Lance McCullers Jr. He throws a low-90s fastball paired with a big curveball and a number of other pitches that keep hitters off balance more than velocity alone. When McCullers was in his prime, his curveball essentially set everything else up, and we are seeing the same from Arrighetti.

Arrighetti has used his curveball more than any other pitch this season. While he still throws it to righties, it is primarily his weapon to neutralize lefties, and it certainly has done that. Batters are hitting just .082 off the pitch with a ridiculous 48.2% whiff rate.

Fastball high, curveball low to lefties and slider low and away to righties. Sprinkle in a changeup and cutter to lefties and keep the sinker for righties. It’s a pitch mix that allows Arrighetti to work through a lineup with different ways to attack, which has led to his success.

Through seven starts, Arrighetti has a 1.32 ERA and 3.72 FIP. If you watch his starts, you will notice hitters often have uncomfortable at-bats not only because of his number of offerings and how he mixes his pitches, but because of his willingness to use the entire zone, and then some.

I’m sure you have heard the term ‘effectively wild,’ and that’s exactly what Arrighetti is. The reason it can work is if your stuff is good enough to still produce swing and miss, which his is. A batter knows if your control is sub-par, but it can work in your favor if it plays into the unpredictability within an at-bat.

What helps keep Arrighetti on track during each start is his ability to induce weak contact. This season, he has allowed an average exit velocity of only 86.7 mph, which ranks near the top of the league for starting pitchers. Hitting being unable to square up on his pitches gives Arrighetti some leeway, as his walks do not come back to haunt him as often as they could.

Now, we cannot talk about Arrighetti without mentioning his walks. A 14% walk rate and 5.49 BB/9 is a problem no matter how you slice it. Effectively wild can lose the ‘effectively’ part quickly if you are not careful.

So far, his ability to limit hard contact and hits in general has kept him afloat. But, is it sustainable? Few starters can go an entire season walking 14% of batters and come out clean. At some point, over the span of 30 starts, it is more likely to be troublesome than not.

Five of his seven starts have included at least four walks. However, only one start this entire season has seen Arrighetti allow more than one earned run. Everything will tell you that this is a problem that, if not improved upon, will level out in a bad way as the sample grows.

What we do know is that the improvement does not need to be cutting his walk rate in half. His stuff is good enough, and his ability to keep hitters off their barrel allows for a larger margin of error when it comes to his command. But, in order to take the next step, improving his command and landing in the 4.00-4.25 BB/9 is likely necessary.

Arrighetti’s Importance to the Astros Going Forward

You might think the Astros’ dynasty run is headed towards its grave. I could be convinced of that. I could also hear an argument where they can come back healthy and still have a year or two left before truly knowing their direction.

What we do know is that their rotation going forward has massive question marks:

Above, you will see the Astros current starting pitching contracts and their outlook for the next few seasons. McCullers, who is injured often enough to not be in the conversation going forward, will be a free agent after this season.

Tatsuya Imai is still adjusting to being in the States and will likely opt in to his remaining two seasons, which is looking more like bad news than good. Cristian Javier was fantastic in 2022, regressed in 2023, and hasn’t started 10 games in a season in the three years since. He is once again injured.

The rest of the list is mostly depth or unproven arms outside of Hunter Brown. I do not think the Astros will, or should, move Brown, but since he only has two years of control left, I have to at least mention the idea. A Brown trade could truly boost the farm system, which is already noticeably weak.

Houston does not have top-100 arms ready to debut. In fact, their system is weak on upside arms in general. Who is going to fill out the Astros rotation? Mike Burrows has shown some promise, and Kai-Wei Teng has shown flashes, but the Astros need someone to truly establish themselves as a fixture in the rotation moving forward.

Arrighetti could be just that. Even if Brown is kept (or extended), the Astros need answers in their rotation for the foreseeable future. Considering how few arms in the minors look like sure things, Arrighetti could be that much more important.

Final Thoughts

We live in a world where so much is expected to happen in an instant. But, we are often reminded that pitching development cannot be instant. It takes time, experience, and figuring out what works and what doesn’t. Arrighetti is currently going through some growing pains but still finding ways to produce outs.

With more time on task, and perhaps a few refinements, he could develop into the type of pitcher Houston needs now and into the future.