Should the Houston Astros Trade Yordan Alvarez?

After Jose Altuve, when you think of the Houston Astros, you think of designated hitter and outfielder Yordan Alvarez.

The 28-year-old took the league by storm in 87 games back in 2019, slashing .313/.412/.655 with 27 home runs and 78 runs batted in. Fast forward to 2022, he posted 6.4 fWAR, hit a career-high 37 home runs, and put up a wRC+ of 185.

He’s the heart of their order, and was before the likes of third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker moved on to new endeavors. But now, two and a half years from free agency with the Astros at 27-34, the conversation around the Cuban slugger is different.

He’s still as elite as ever when healthy. Last year wasn’t his best work, but he only played 48 games. This year, he’s slashing .301/.416/.634 with a 185 wRC+ and yet is underperforming his expected metrics; 52-point difference between wOBA and expected.

Turning 29 in June, he’s in the heart of his prime. With the Astros staring down a potential rebuild, it begs the question: Should they trade the Cuban slugger?

It’s a complex question to answer. On one hand, the Astros aren’t the organization they used to be. There’s been so much roster turnover in recent years — Bregman, Tucker, Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, etc. are no longer there. While they’ve done a decent job replacing some of these players, that’s a lot of star talent to lose in a relatively short window.

On the other hand, Alvarez is just 29 years old. It’s not inconceivable he’d still be an elite-level contributor the next time the Astros are contenders.

Let’s examine both sides further.

The Case to Trade Yordan Alvarez

Contrary to what Astros fans may want to hear, there’s not a whole lot of talent on this roster to move in a potential sellers’ market this summer.

Among their four expiring contracts, three are relievers and one is backup catcher Christian Vázquez. Obviously, there’s no rule that trade deadline chips have to be expiring contracts. Guys like Jeremy Peña, Christian Walker, and Isaac Paredes are free agents after next year, and they are good-to-great MLB contributors. That said, none are the level of Alvarez.

Sometimes it’s purely a numbers game, and the Astros know full well you don’t have to trade stars to acquire future good players. Look no further than when they acquired Vázquez the first time, trading two-time gold glove right fielder Wilyer Abreu to the Boston Red Sox.

However, there are a few questions they must ask and answer before the deadline rolls around. One, how long are they willing to partake in a rebuild? Second, can they navigate that rebuild before Alvarez hits free agency? Lastly, how motivated are they to re-up his contract after the 2028 season?

The reality is, there’s precedent the Astros don’t bring back their free agents. Bregman left for Boston last year, they traded Tucker to the Chicago Cubs that same offseason. Sure, they re-acquired Verlander in a trade, but they initially let him walk to the New York Mets. They’ve also let Valdez, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Correa — though re-acquired him last summer — walk over the years.

Alvarez is an elite player. If they ever decide to trade him, they’ll get a lot for him no matter what. However, the longer they wait, the less they’ll get back.

The Case to Keep Him

Players like Alvarez don’t grow on trees. He’s dealt with injuries over the years, but he’s the No. 2 hitter in baseball since his rookie season, trailing only New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge in wRC+.

He doesn’t only slug, either. His .297 batting average is tied for fifth in the majors during that span, and his .391 on-base percentage is fourth. He’s a true Renaissance Man offensively, and there’s no way of getting that back in a trade unless you get lucky.

Not to mention, he’s only 29 years old and a primary designated hitter. He’s likely to get a contract after 2028 that exceeds the “value” a DH is capable of putting out. That said, you can’t put a price on the impact his presence has on the rest of the lineup. Guys in front of him are pitched diffently, and guys behind him are always a preferred matchup in run-producing situations.

If there ever was a player to go above and beyond to retain in recent Astros history, after Altuve, it’d be Alvarez. Maybe the rebuild takes longer by keeping him, but letting him go hurts the ceiling of the next great Astros team.

Regardless, the Astros hold a bulk of the power in these negotiations given the benefit of team control. They don’t have to move Alvarez unless absolutely blown away with a trade offer. However, given that team control and this year’s playoff race, they’d be foolish not to listen.