Is Selling the Right Move for the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline?

The last time the St. Louis Cardinals were in the postseason was in 2022. They finished with 93-wins, took home the NL Central for the first time since 2019 and earned themselves a spot in the Wild Card rounds.

That seems like ages ago.

Unfortunately for the Redbirds, they been doomed a mediocrity since. The 2023 season was flat out awful, as they finished 20 games below .500 at 71-91 and last in the division for the first time since 1990. Then come 2024, improvements were had, but nothing that could muster more than an 83-win season.

Obviously, the Cardinals weren’t buyers in 2023, and they were sort of on the fence in 2024, making more major leaguer for major leaguer moves, such as the three-team deal that sent them Tommy Pham and Erick Fedde while surrendering Tommy Edman.

As of right now, the Cardinals don’t seem to be in a place of certainty. They could be buyers with a 54-53 record and just 3.5 games back of an NL Wild Card spot.

However, President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak has made some statements already that may hint the Cardinals might be sellers after a sweep to start the second-half of the season,

Again though, they are still above .500 and have played better baseball since that embarrassing sweep around a week ago.

So, is selling the right way for St. Louis to go, and what could that look like?

Or if they quickly shift gears and choose to buy before July 31, where might be the areas that they bolster their roster for a stretch run?

Will the Cardinals Actually Sell This Deadline?

One of the bigger stories this week when it comes to individual teams’ deadline paths has been Mozeliak seemingly leaning towards waving the white flag in order to “to understand what the future looks like,” as per our Patrick Lyons.

Further news has come out since then to support that idea, as Daryn Perry of CBS Sports reports that the Cardinals will listen to offers for two of their most notable players with no-trade clauses in Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray.

They’re added to a list that is also headlined by closer Ryan Helsley, who told The Athletic’s Katie Woo that he expects he’ll be traded, as well as utility man Brendan Donovan, who Woo referenced is receiving interest from the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

That’d be four integral names off the roster, and that’s if that’s where the Cardinals stop. If they are selling and get solid returns for these players, no harm no foul right?

After all they’ll be accelerating their rebuild and creating a clearer picture for the future, that would already include the likes of current young major league pieces in Masyn Winn, Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Michael McGreevy. Then there’s the bright promise of the impending arrivals of some top prospects like JJ Wetherholt and Quinn Mathews.

But will they get an optimal return for all four of those names?

There’s not as much doubt in names like Helsley and Donovan. Helsley is one of the more reliable closing arms, converting 49 saves last season and following it up with 21 so far this year. He’s held a 3.00 ERA or better the past four seasons and a sub-1.10 WHIP and sub-.210 BAA arm the three seasons prior to 2025.

And with Orioles closer Félix Bautista going down with an injury, likely taking himself off the trade market, Helsley’s value likely rose by a notable margin.

Then there’s always room for a 28-year-old utility man like Donovan, especially when he’s slashing .293/.360/.248 with a 123 wRC+.

The real question is what can they get for Arenado and Gray given their trade restrictions?

Arenado, now 34, is a shell of the former MVP candidate he was just a few years ago, as he’s dipped to below average hitter with an 87 wRC+ along with a .239 AVG and .673 OPS. While he’s been declining for a few seasons now, apart from the abnormal 2020 COVID-shortened season (76 wRC+) it’s the first time since his debut campaign in 2013 (77 wRC+) that he’s been a below average hitter.

Then Gray, now 35, is sporting his first season with an ERA over 4.00 since 2021 and his highest ERA since 2018. His WHIP is up 10 points from last season and his BAA is up 36 points.

Neither are the players they used to be, meaning they would already generate a much lower return then they would’ve at their peak. Then, when you add in the fact that Cardinals really don’t control their fate, given each of their full no-trade clauses.

This could make teams less inclined to pay what the Cardinals desire because they’re not trading with the Cardinals; they merely have to win over the player whom the Cardinals are at the mercy of. We’ve already seen this play out with Arenado and his failed trade to Houston this past winter.

Now, this will always be the case for Arenado and Gray, so why not trade them now, especially when Helsley’s a rental and Donovan’s value will only go down with less remaining service time?

Well their record could be the reason for that.

When Mozeliak made his comments about possibly selling, that was after a difficult sweep to the Arizona Diamondbacks to open the second half. Since then, the Cardinals have played better baseball, going 3-3 and sitting just 1.5 games back in a wide open race for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Wouldn’t it make sense for the Cardinals, a franchise starving to get back to the October, to pursue this competitive avenue?

Let’s explore that side of things.

Should the Cardinals Switch Gears and Become Buyers at the Deadline?

As already mentioned, at 54-53, the Cardinals have a real case for that final Wild Card spot. According to FanGraphs’ postseason odds, St. Louis still holds a 20.3% chance at the postseason. While this may not appear to be the highest of probabilities, it does sit higher than their division rivals in the Cincinnati Reds, who not only sit above them in the standings but also appear to be geared up to buy ahead of the deadline.

Apart from Helsley, and the now DFA’d Erick Fedde, the Cardinals’ core remains under control, signifying that they could be building a winning product again, especially when the likes of Wetherholt and Mathews are added to the fold, among others.

Given their need to eventually figure out how to handle the financial burdens of Arenado and Gray, am I proposing they go all out for huge names on the market? No, especially not with such a crowded field for what appears to be just one open Wild Card spot.

However, with a winning record already, there are plenty of between the margins moves this team could make to subtly upgrade this roster while not jeopardizing the future.

Being in such a strong baseball market as well, a postseason appearance in 2025 could do wonders for future planning. St. Louis could once again become a viable option for free agents looking to not only enter a bigger market but a competitive one at that.

What’s the Best Path for the Cardinals Ahead of the Deadline?

It may sound like a cop out, but I believe that there’s a way the Cardinals could satisfy both sides of buyer and seller over the next few days.

If the closer’s market is too lucrative to pass up a deal on an expiring Helsley, then I think the Cards could pull off that deal and recoup some future assets. After all, he’s in a bit of a down year, relief pitching is probably the easiest of any position to shift things around internally to accommodate gaps.

While Gray at a mid-to-low 4.00s ERA could still serve a purpose in the rotation, Arenado might be the opposite. If they were to find a way to cut ties with him, I don’t think that would dramatically alter any chance of competing and could free up some much-needed run for a young infielder with solid potential in Thomas Saggese.

I think Donovan, though, with two more arbitration years after 2025, is worth keeping for this season at least and re-evaluating the market in the winter. Losing him would be a major blow to this lineup as he sits top three pretty well across the board offensively for them while providing extremely valuable defensive versatility.

So long as Mozeliak and Co. don’t give up the likes of their Top 100 prospects in Wetherholt or Mathews, I think there’s reason to believe that they could find a way to bring in some much needed starter help, perhaps a bullpen reinforcement or two (especially if Helsley is on the move) or maybe a bat to deepen this lineup.

At the end of the day, the Cardinals are in too good of a spot at the moment and frankly to big of a team to not go for it and sit on the sidelines in October for a third straight year without giving it their best shot.