Despite Slow Start, the AL West Is Still the Mariners’ Division To Lose

It hasn’t been the start that many expected for the Seattle Mariners. One of the favorites in the American League heading into 2026, Seattle currently sits at 14-16 after an up-and-down first month of baseball.

However, it hasn’t been all bad for the Mariners, and there’s plenty of reasons that suggest much better days are ahead in Seattle.

For starters, the rest of the teams in the AL West haven’t particularly taken advantage of Seattle’s slow start.

The Astros have struggled mightily out of the gate with the worst record in the American League thus far, the Angels have came back down to earth after a hot start, and both the Athletics and the Rangers have their share of flaws as well despite being ahead of Seattle in the division standings.

In turn, there’s a reason why the Mariners are still the odds-on favorite to take home the AL West at +100 over at BetMGM. While they haven’t played their best baseball thus far, they still possess the best overall roster in the division, and it’s only a matter of time before the pieces come together.

Stats were taken prior to play on April 28.

A Struggling Big Three

A big contributing factor to Seattle’s sluggish start has been the struggles from the middle of their lineup. Mainly, the Mariners’ stars have not been performing up to standards.

Yet, despite Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Josh Naylor, getting off to slow starts, the Mariners still rank in the top half of MLB in offensive fWAR while ranking ninth in team wRC+. Sitting at 24th in MLB in runs per game and 19th in team OPS, this offense hasn’t even scraped the surface of what it’s capable of.

Fortunately for Mariners fans, Raleigh is starting to find his form at the plate. He’s put together a tremendous week-plus of baseball, hitting .333 with a 1.207 OPS and five homers in his last eight games.

It was only a matter of time before Raleigh hit his stride, as the 2025 AL MVP runner up was hitting just .155 with a .512 OPS with 30 punchouts across his first 22 games of the season. After a 9-13 start for the Mariners over that stretch, their turnaround in play can largely be attributed to Raleigh catching fire at the plate.

Few players in MLB can single handedly steer an offense like Raleigh can, and Mariners fans saw that first hand last season. His bat alone has the ability to break a team out of a slump. Once he starts rolling, so will the Mariners’ offense.

Similarly, if Rodríguez were to extrapolate his second-half production over the course of a full season, he could easily play his way into MVP consideration. The problem, though, is that Rodríguez is once again off to another slow start at the plate.

This is the fourth consecutive season where Rodríguez has been slow out of the gate, and, unfortunately, that might just be who he is at this point. Slashing .241/.323/.319 for a .642 OPS and 89 wRC+ through his first 30 games this season, Julio has yet to make an impact with the bat through the early goings of 2026 with a barrel rate below six percent and a hard-hit rate of only 38.4%.

He has only five extra-base hits across 130 plate appearances, yielding an isolated power of .078 that is the 18th-lowest mark among qualified MLB hitters to this point. A reminder that this is the same player who launched 18 homers and posted a .270 ISO across his final 65 games last season, which propelled the Mariners to a near-World Series appearance.

That’s the player he can be when he’s right, but slow starts are something Rodríguez is becoming known for.

On the one hand, there’s value in knowing he’s practically guaranteed to turn up the dial at some point in the coming months. At the same time, this Mariners lineup needs Julio to be in vintage form in order for this team to reach its true potential. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of time for that to happen.

After batting .194 for an OPS of .565 across his first 19 games this season, Julio is batting .318 across his most recent 11 games. Still sporting an OPS of just .771 over that stretch, it’s only a matter of time before the extra-base hits start to fall for Rodríguez.

It’s not a matter of if he turns it on, but when, and for the Mariners, they’re hoping he flips that switch sooner rather than later.

Of the names mentioned in this aforementioned trio, Naylor’s start is easily the most concerning. After posting a career-high 3.1 fWAR and 128 wRC+ last season, including a 135 OPS+ as a member of the Mariners after the All-Star break, Naylor has gotten off to a much slower start in 2026.

At his peak, Naylor presents such a unique blend of contact and power. But through his first 27 games, Naylor is hitting a measly .202 with a .590 OPS. He’s contributed -0.2 fWAR to this point, which is the worst mark on the team, but we all know Naylor is far more talented than those numbers suggest.

As has been the theme with the rest of Seattle’s stars, Naylor is starting to pick up the pace at the plate as of late. After hitting a measly .118 with a .390 OPS and a 12 wRC+ that was the worst in baseball across his first 19 games, Naylor is 12-for-28 (.429) with a 1.107 OPS across his last eight games and has looked much more like the hitter Mariners fans became accustomed to seeing.

Naylor’s quality of at-bats have drastically improved as of late. Comparing his recent hot stretch to his first 19 games, he’s striking out less often, walking at a much higher clip, and has increased his hard-hit rate by nearly six percent.

While it’s been a slow start, there are signs that the Mariners’ big three in the lineup are about to hit their stride. Once that happens, this offense will look much more like the unit that finished top three in wRC+ from a season ago.

Better Days Ahead

On top of the Mariners’ offense being on the precipice of breaking out, there are plenty of other positives to take away from the Mariners’ middling start.

For starters, this pitching staff is still one of the best in Major League Baseball. Though Luis Castillo‘s 6.35 ERA and Logan Gilbert‘s mid-4.00s ERA haven’t been up to standards, this is still one of the most formidable starting rotations in baseball.

The emergence of Emerson Hancock certainly helps, not to mention Bryce Miller is on the mend. Seattle’s starters are still 11th in ERA (3.96) and 10th in FIP (3.92) in MLB on the year despite some names underperforming, and this is a rotation that should once again finish near the top of the run prevention leaderboards come season’s end.

On the flip side, the bullpen has once again been lockdown, ranking top 10 in fWAR (0.9), sixth in ERA (3.47), and fifth in FIP (3.63). Matt Brash has yet to allow a run across his 12 appearances, Eduard Bazardo and Jose A. Ferrer are tossing to sub-2.00 ERAs, and Gabe Speier has continued to build upon his success from a season ago.

Andrés Muñoz‘s 6.55 ERA is a bit skewed from a disastrous five-run outing against the Padres a few weeks back, and he’s currently punching out a whopping 14.73 hitters per nine, a mark that currently ranks seventh among qualified relievers and is a sizeable increase from previous seasons.

His .348 BABIP will come back down to earth over time, and when that happens, his numbers will drop to a level fans have been accustomed to seeing across his Mariners tenure.

Point being, the level of top-to-bottom pitching talent that this team boasts from their No. 5 starter to their “A” bullpen still may be second to none in the American League. Additionally, their stars are already starting to turn the corner at the plate, and the role players on offense — such as Luke Raley, Cole Young, and Dominic Canzone — are helping buoy this offense in the meantime.

Now is the time to buy stock on this Mariners team before it’s too late. Because at full strength, this is a rock-solid roster from top to bottom. When the pieces eventually come together, don’t be surprised if Seattle runs away with the AL West as the season progresses.