Can the Giants Stand Pat and Make a Run at the NL Wild Card?
The Giants are one of the "bubble" teams as we near the trade deadline. Can they stand their ground and still make a run at the playoffs?
As the trading deadline approaches, many teams in the National League’s incredibly chaotic Wild Card picture have had their questions answered.
The Nationals — a postseason contender just a few weeks ago — will likely be selling. On the flip side, the Mets who looked dead in the water about two months ago are now comfortably in a playoff spot.
A team that is yet to get such resolution is the San Francisco Giants. Since leading baseball in losses in 2017, the Giants have spent the past six years middling in the National League, with 2021 being the lone exception. This year has been no different as the Giants are 50-55 with FanGraphs giving them a 13% chance to make the postseason.
The Giants, on paper, should be much better than they are. They built on a 79-win campaign in 2023 by signing reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, slick-fielding third baseman Matt Chapman and power-hitting designated hitter Jorge Soler.
A Season Plagued by Underperformance
Unfortunately, Snell has spent much of the season on the shelf and when on the field, has pitched to a 5.83 ERA. His name has been thrown around the rumor mill a bit, so it’s worth wondering if he gets moved in the coming days or not. Soler has only knocked 12 home runs while hitting just .231 with a .730 OPS. Of the three, Chapman has been the best, posting a 112 OPS+, but given his track record, even that is underwhelming.
Underperformance has plagued the entire roster as despite being named an All Star, ace Logan Webb has had arguably his worst year since 2020 while closer Camilo Doval’s ERA is well over 4.00.
Despite the regression, San Francisco is being kept afloat by unlikely heroes. Center fielder Heliot Ramos has taken the next step forward and developed into a star. In 67 games, the 24-year old is hitting .294 with a team-leading 15 home runs and an .874 OPS.
After a solid season in 2023, first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. has built on that en route to a 142 OPS+ this year while Patrick Bailey has held down the fort both offensively and defensively behind the plate. If Chapman and Soler can turn their seasons around, the Giants certainly have the lineup that can thrust them into October.
The bigger questions lie in the pitching staff.
Pitching Staff Question Marks
Even if Snell finds a way to bounce back, him and Webb might not be enough. Jordan Hicks, who is seen as the No. 2 starter, has a 4.01 ERA this year and has already surpassed his highest inning total in the big leagues. It’s hard to believe in Hicks to improve over the final two months as the workload is bound to catch up with him.
The team got 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray back from a season-long injury this week as he posted five innings of one run baseball. Ray however, is nearing his 33rd birthday and is coming off nearly two years of injury, following a pedestrian 2022.
The Giants are asking a lot of aging arms that really have not convinced the baseball world that they are capable of returning to form with about ten weeks to play in the season.
What Upgrades Are Out There?
The final option for a Giants turnaround will be the trade market and ultimately the place to start is the rotation. San Francisco is likely not in the market for a blue-chip, high-end star of the market such as a Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal but if they make the decision to go for it, there are a few strong options to consider.
A pair of former Bay Area stars on the Blue Jays could be in the cards. To start, former Giant Kevin Gausman established himself as one of the league’s best starters since 2020 but has seen his ERA balloon to 4.55 this year. Nonetheless, his track record speaks for itself as he could be an option to reunite with his former squad. Secondly, Chris Bassitt has enjoyed a solid year north of the border. Now 35, Bassitt owns a 3.78 ERA across 119 innings and represents one of the Blue Jays’ top trade chips now that they are out of contention.
Besides those two, Jack Flaherty is playing his best baseball since 2019 with the Tigers and appears to be on his way out. After signing a one-year deal, the righty has a 2.95 ERA and 133 strikeouts across 106.2 innings this year.
Finally, the White Sox’ Erick Fedde has pitched to a 2.98 ERA this year on the Southside. Not expected to hold the lofty price tag of his teammate Crochet, Fedde is a prime option for the Giants if they decide to buy.
Closing Thoughts
These Giants are in a bit of a weird spot moving forward. While they are out of a playoff spot as of right now, they can’t exactly go out and do a sell-off. The club seriously lacks any obvious rentals, and while Snell could be on the move, it feels likelier that they hold onto him and try to make another run.
Outside of Snell, the rentals include Michael Conforto, who’s reportedly on the Mets’ radar and the aging Alex Cobb. There’s not much to write home about in this group. The Giants are almost being forced into doing nothing at the deadline.
Ultimately, the Giants have the fourth-easiest schedule remaining. While a second-half surge is not out of the question, the Giants are going to need a bit of luck on their side. Properly handling the trade deadline could thrust them into a Wild Card spot by season’s end.
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