The NL Wild Card Race Has Gotten Out of Hand

The NL Wild Card race was always going to be close.

Entering the season, a couple of teams seemed like locks for the first two Wild Card spots. First up, either the Dodgers or the Padres, whichever one lost the NL West. Similarly, either the Mets or the Braves seemed like a sure thing, too.

Finally, the Phillies would duke it out with either the Cardinals or the Brewers for the last postseason berth, and perhaps a dark horse like the Giants or the Diamondbacks would emerge to make things interesting.

Ah, March 2023. We were so young and naive.

With the season nearing a close, the Mets, Padres, and Cardinals are long since out of contention. The Phillies are the top dogs in the Wild Card race. As for the other two Wild Card slots? Five different teams have outperformed expectations, putting themselves within reach of the playoffs as the regular season winds down.

The Diamondbacks, Cubs, Reds, Marlins, and Giants all sit within three games of one another in the Wild Card race. Here’s how they stack up right now, although these standings have been changing nearly every day:

Team	Wins	Losses	Games Back
Arizona Diamondbacks	80	72	+0.5
Chicago Cubs	79	72	–
Miami Marlins	79	73	0.5
Cincinnati Reds	79	74	1.0
San Francisco Giants	76	75	3.0

Until quite recently, it looked like the Cubs had the second Wild Card on lock. At that point, the NL postseason picture was already complicated enough. There was a real possibility that any combination of four different teams could end up in a tie for the final playoff spot. I broke down all the potential tiebreaker scenarios, and it looked like this (as of Monday, Sept. 18):

• If the Reds and Giants finish in a tie, the Giants will win the Wild Card spot.
• If the Reds and Diamondbacks finish in a tie, the Reds will win the Wild Card spot.
• If the Reds and Marlins finish in a tie, the Marlins will win the Wild Card spot.
• If the Diamondbacks and Giants finish in a tie, the Giants will win the Wild Card spot.
• If the Marlins and Giants finish in a tie, the Giants will win the Wild Card spot.
• If the Marlins and Diamondbacks finish in a tie, the Marlins will win the Wild Card spot.
• If the Reds, Giants, and Diamondbacks finish in a tie, the Giants will win the Wild Card spot. The Giants have won the season series against the Reds and Diamondbacks.
• If the Reds, Giants, and Marlins finish in a tie, the Giants will win the Wild Card spot. The Giants have the best record against the other two teams combined.
• If the Reds, Marlins, and Diamondbacks finish in a tie, the Marlins will win the Wild Card spot. The Reds and Marlins have the same record against one another, and they both have a winning against the Diamondbacks. The Marlins have a better intradivision record than the Reds.
• If the Giants, Marlins, and Diamondbacks finish in a tie, the Giants will win the Wild Card spot. The Giants and Marlins have the same record against one another, and they both have a winning against the Diamondbacks. The Giants have a better intradivision record than the Marlins.
• If the Giants, Reds, Marlins, and Diamondbacks finish in a tie, Marlins will win the Wild Card spot.* The Marlins have the best record against the other three teams combined.

Already seems pretty complicated, right?

Well, after the Cubs lost six of seven to the D-backs over the past two weeks, the web of tiebreakers grew exponentially more complex. Now, it’s looking like any combination of five teams could finish in a tie for either one or two Wild Card spots. That’s dozens of potential outcomes.

Three teams could finish tied for two spots. Four teams could finish tied for one. It would take a supercomputer to calculate all the potential tiebreaker scenarios. It’s absolute madness.

The MLB.com explainer about postseason tiebreakers doesn’t even acknowledge a four-way tie, let alone a five-way draw. Presumably, the same rules apply as would in the case of a three-way tie, but still, it goes to show just how unexpected this outcome would be.

Last week, when I wrote about all the postseason tiebreaker scenarios, I vowed to keep track of every tiebreaker scenario, by race and by team. Unfortunately, the time has come for me to admit defeat.

As a mere mortal, I simply can’t keep tabs on all the chaos that lies ahead. It’s sort of like that episode of Community where Jeff rolls a six-sided die, except we’re working with far more parallel universes; this episode would be several hours long.

Still, I don’t want to leave you empty-handed, so I offer you this. First, this table lists all five Wild Card contenders, their season-series records against one another, and their intradivisional records. These are the most important numbers for determining which team(s) wins the tiebreaker:

Team	vs. SF	vs. CIN	vs. ARI	vs. MIA	vs. CHC	vs. All	Intradivision
Giants	x	.571	.500	.500	.167	.452	.561
Reds	.429	x	.571	.500	.538	.515	.413
Diamondbacks	.500	.429	x	.333	.857	.531	.549
Marlins	.500	.500	.667	x	.667	.640	.511
Cubs	.833	.462	.143	.333	x	.438	.609

Second, here is a breakdown of the basic tiebreaking procedures, courtesy of MLB.com:

• 1. Head-to-head record
• 2. Intradivision Record
• 3. Interdivision Record
• 4. Last Half of Intraleague Games
• 5. Last Half of Intraleague Games Plus One

Finally, here’s what Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com has to say about three-way ties. In theory, this should apply to four-way and five-way ties as well.

If the three clubs DO NOT all have identical records against one another and Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure.

If the three clubs DO have identical records against one another, then the team with the best intradivision record (see below) is the qualifier.

Anthony Castrovince, MLB.com

Perhaps all this mayhem will sort itself out, and we won’t have to worry about tiebreakers at all. That would certainly make my brain feel less tired.

However, if the Wild Card standings remain this close over the next two weeks, I hope I’ve provided you with the resources to understand the permutations that lie in store. We’ll make it through the madness together.