The Padres’ Jackson Merrill Is Somehow Still Underrated

Last season, the San Diego Padres turned to their top prospect, Jackson Merrill, with a tall task. After a monster spring training, he was asked to move from shortstop to center field in order to break camp with the club, all while skipping Triple-A completely. Merrill didn’t just handle this move with grace, but he excelled in every way possible.

As a rookie, Merrill hit 24 homers, recorded over 5.0 fWAR, and was the key piece of a very fun Padres team. If it weren’t for the historic season Paul Skenes had for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Merrill would’ve been the easy choice for National League Rookie of the Year. Instead, he was the second-place finisher, receiving seven first-place votes and 23 second-place votes.

Despite all of this, Merrill entered the 2025 season still flying under the radar, finding it hard to truly get recognized for his achievements on a Padres team full of superstars. After being sidelined a few times this season due to injuries, Merrill is raking once again. However, he’s still not getting all the recognition he deserves.

How good is Merrill truly? Why hasn’t he gotten the recognition he deserves? Let’s take a closer look at his game and try to shed some light on a 22-year-old who deserves all the credit in the world for how he’s played.

Breaking Down Merrill’s 2025 Season

Merrill entered the 2025 season looking to continue to do damage just like he had last season, especially considering he had some added pressure on his back. Before the season began, the Padres and Merrill inked a team-friendly super extension worth $135 million across the next nine seasons.

However, this would be delayed slightly by a right hamstring strain on April 8, which sidelined him for just under a month. Since returning from the IL on May 6, Merrill has continued to put together a very nice season overall.

As of June 29, Merrill has hit five homers in 217 plate appearances, while also slashing .294/.350/.452 with a 126 wRC+ and a 1.5 fWAR. Keep in mind that Merrill is doing this at just 22 years old, making this level of production even more impressive.

Out of all Padres hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Merrill ranks just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. for the team lead in wRC+, behind only star third baseman Manny Machado. Although Merrill’s counting stats aren’t as impressive due to his time on the injured list, there’s certainly an argument that Merrill edges out Tatis as the second-best hitter on the team right now.

Merrill ranks in the 75th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, and launch angle sweet spot rate, which really goes to show just how elite his bat has been this year. You could raise the requirements to the 88th percentile or better, and only his barrel rate would rank below that point.

In the other areas of his game, Merrill rounds out his five-tool skill set with ease. He has 1 OAA in center field, with his arm grading out as one of the strongest in the sport. His arm strength of 95.9 mph ranks in the 98th percentile, making him a Gold Glove-caliber defender once again in just his second season in center field.

Merrill also backs this all up with 81st-percentile sprint speed, which gives him the ability to steal plenty of bags. In fact, he swiped nearly 20 bases in his rookie season, and he certainly has the potential to eclipse that threshold with ease if he runs more. He only attempted 19 steals last season, going 16-3 on his attempts.

The only area in which Merrill is lacking offensively is his plate discipline, which has a little way to go in terms of development. He’s currently posting a chase rate of 34.4%, which is one of the worst marks in the sport. He’s also posted a below-average walk rate in the process. However, he’s still managed to deliver despite this.

When it comes to what Jackson Merrill has to offer in terms of production, he brings a true five-tool play style to the field, a skill set that’s become increasingly harder to find over the last few seasons. Keep in mind that Merrill has been elite in nearly every facet of his game at just 22 years old!

How Does Merrill Compare to the League’s Top Talents?

Now that we’ve established just how good Merrill has been, it’s also important to compare him to some of the other talented center fielders in the game in order to truly appreciate his play this season. One theme that develops when looking at these names is that Merrill has far better numbers than a lot of household names, yet you hear him talked about far less.

To start, when going strictly off of wRC+, Jackson Merrill has the sixth-highest mark for any center fielder with at least 200 plate appearances. He’s also one of just six to record a wRC+ above 125. Not only is this extremely impressive, but it becomes even more impressive when you see some of the players below him.

Bounce-back star Javier Báez, Cody Bellinger, Jung Hoo Lee, Julio Rodríguez, Cedric Mullins, Tommy Edman, Jackson Chourio, Oneil Cruz, Ceddanne Rafaela, and plenty of other household names sit behind Merrill on this leaderboard. I can’t say for certain, but it’s a safe bet to assume you’ve heard at least one of these players’ names pop up more this year than Merrill’s.

Another thing that may surprise you is that Merrill has already posted roughly the same fWAR in 51 games as Chourio has in his first 83 games this season, really showing how well he’s performed in such a small sample. If this pace continues, Merrill will post an fWAR close to 4.0 by the end of the year, despite missing so much time.

Although it is admittedly a less-used statistic these days, Merrill also ranks second among center fielders with at least 200 plate appearances in batting average. The only player ahead of him? Astros breakout center fielder Jake Meyers, and across the board, Merrill is the better hitter.

Merrill’s on-base percentage this season is higher than Byron Buxton’s, a statistic I found particularly interesting, considering Buxton has been one of the game’s best players this season. Buxton has been talked about repeatedly as a candidate for the All-Star Game, yet there’s almost no buzz around Merrill’s name in general.

There are plenty of other examples where Merrill edges out center fielders with a lot of buzz around their names, while he gets almost no recognition. It’s impossible to cite every example of this, but it’s fascinating to compare their numbers, recognition, and name value, even considering Merrill’s injury this season.

Why Is Merrill Still Underrated?

After diving into his numbers and comparing them to other top center fielders in the sport, I’m left confused at how Merrill still remains one of the most underrated players. Why could this be the case?

The most likely assumption we can make is that Merrill’s injury caused plenty of people to forget just how good he could be. This is reasonable, considering Merrill has only appeared in 51 of the Padres’ 83 games this season due to injury, so it’s easy for him to slip past the headlines.

He’s repeating his production from last year, or playing better than he did in 2024, in nearly every respect. It felt like we couldn’t go a day last season without mentioning his name or talking about how well he was playing. Now, in 2025, because of his injury, the sport seems to have forgotten how talented the 22-year-old can be.

But Merrill hasn’t gone anywhere; he’s simply picked up where he left off. The tools and the consistency at the plate and in center field all remain intact. If anything, his ability to bounce back from injury and return to form at such a young age should be reason for even more praise, not less.

It’s possible it will take a full, healthy second half and beyond for the league to find him again, but make no mistake: Jackson Merrill is still incredibly talented. It’s time the rest of the league caught up and remembered just how good he can be at his peak.