Gavin Sheets Has Made the Most of His Change of Scenery

On Wednesday night, Gavin Sheets stepped into the batter’s box in the bottom of the seventh inning. 

Luis Arraez stood on first base with the San Diego Padres down 7-6 to the Miami Marlins. Sheets looked to the mound, ready to swing big and turn the game on its head.

A few pitches later, he did just that.

In a 2-1 count, Sheets crushed a sweeper 385 feet into the right field stands for his 11th home run of the season.

While the Marlins would go on to win this game 10-8, this moment exemplified the impact he has had for the Padres this year.

Sheets had shown flashes of his potential throughout his time with the Chicago White Sox. But, after their disastrous 41-121 season in 2024, Sheets found himself non-tendered after just four seasons.

In a relatively quiet move, the Padres picked him up on a minor league deal worth just $1.6 million.

Since making the MLB roster, Sheets has taken off and looks like arguably the most underrated signing of the year.

Editor’s Note: This piece was written prior to Gavin Sheets’ potential injury on Sunday afternoon. Sheets hurt his hip, wrist, and thumb and may have suffered a concussion after colliding with the wall in left field.

A Fresh Start

Sheets has seen his fair share of ups and downs throughout his MLB career.

He got off to a hot start with the White Sox in 2021, hitting at a 30-homer pace with a 122 OPS+ over 54 games. However, he struggled to maintain form moving forward.

Over the next three years, he hit just .227/.229/.368, accumulating -2.2 fWAR with an 85 OPS+ over this span.

As a result, it was difficult to predict how Sheets would perform coming into 2025. He had previously demonstrated that he could hit well at the MLB level. Despite this, his struggles were rough enough to warrant some hesitation.

Now a third of the way through the season, Sheets has taken these concerns and obliterated them.

Through his first 54 games with the Padres, Sheets has put up 0.9 fWAR while hitting .267/.323/.494.

His 130 wRC+ ranks 10th among qualified designated hitters in MLB. The 11 home runs Sheets has hit rank eighth within the same sample.

When comparing Sheets’ performance to the rest of the league, he still stacks up well.

His average launch angle sweet-spot percentage (95th percentile), hard-hit percentage (95th percentile), and average exit velocity (91st percentile) all rank among the MLB’s best.

His bat speed (82nd percentile), expected slugging percentage (78th percentile), barrel percentage (68th percentile), and expected wOBA (74th percentile) are all solid as well.

These metrics have all jumped significantly this year. In particular, his hard-hit rate has skyrocketed from the 22nd percentile in 2024 to the 94th percentile this year.

The Real Deal

Sheets has made significant improvements this year to help him achieve such positive results.

Across rate stats, Sheets is currently maintaining career-high marks in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, barrel rate, launch angle sweet-spot percentage, and hard-hit rate.

His 20.4% home run rate on fly balls soars above his career average of 11.6%. This likely comes as a result of Sheets prioritizing pulling the ball in the air, doing so at a 27.5% clip this season.

He has done so for good reason, as he has a 225 wRC+ when pulling the ball, with 35.3% of his pulled fly balls leaving the yard.

Looking at his splits, a few trends emerge. For one, he has crushed right-handed pitching this season. He owns a 144 wRC+ and has hit 10 of his 11 homers against them.

He has also been a monster in road games, hitting .311/.315/.600 with a 149 wRC+ away from San Diego. His platoon splits are further exaggerated on the road as well. Sheets has a 166 wRC+ against righties on the road with a .962 OPS.

One might expect some regression ahead given the limited sample size. But, Sheets’ peripheral metrics suggest that his performance is legit.

His expected batting average (.273), expected slugging percentage (.495), and expected wOBA (.353) all line up well with his actual production. Additionally, his .300 batting average on balls in play is not far off from the league average of .291.

This lack of discrepancy between his expected stats and production indicates that Sheets is in a good position moving forward.

Playing to Win

Beyond the changes that Sheets has made, he has expressed that getting a fresh start has made a tremendous difference.

Sheets had a very solid major league debut and helped the White Sox make the postseason in 2021. However, it is easy to imagine that his confidence and drive may have faltered in the preceding seasons.

The goal is always to win. That said, it can be difficult to play with the same fire when faced with insurmountable odds.

When asked how playing for a contender like the Padres impacts his performance, Sheets stated, “The most important thing is winning.” He explained that being a part of a winning culture makes for “a better brand of baseball” and “an easier way to play baseball”.

Both Sheets and the Padres dealt with significant adversity over the past year. For Sheets, he found himself non-tendered in the offseason without a clear path forward. The Padres came excruciatingly close to winning the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but came up short.

This season, however, it would seem that both sides have benefited immensely from their pairing.

The Padres already had a formidable roster coming into this season, but the addition of Sheets has further solidified the lineup. In return, Sheets has gotten the opportunity to revitalize his career while playing for a serious contender.

The San Diego faithful can look forward to following Sheets’ comeback season as he works to help propel the Padres back into the postseason this October.