Randy Arozarena Is Looking Like the Best Bat in the Next Free Agent Class

Ever since his trade to the Seattle Mariners in 2024, Randy Arozarena has been one of the best left fielders in MLB. Over the last two seasons, Arozarena’s 6.2 fWAR as a left fielder ranks first in MLB. His 42 home runs are tied for first as well. This season, among all qualified outfielders, he ranks third with a 141 wRC+, behind Pete Crow-Armstrong and James Wood.

Slight adjustments to Arozarena’s swing this season have led to a new approach at the plate. This change has seen him spray the ball over the field more and trade power for contact.

After the 2026 season, Arozarena will hit free agency. In a class headlined by Tarik Skubal, the falloff when it comes to star power is quite steep, especially for outfielders. Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Trent Grisham, Taylor Ward, and Daulton Varsho will be available alongside Arozarena.

His success in Seattle, along with the weak free agent class, should earn Arozarena a handsome payday this offseason.

All stats updated before play on August 13.

A Career Year With a New Swing

While 2025 was a good year for Arozarena, 2026 has been a great one. His 3.4 fWAR this year has already surpassed his 2.9 fWAR in 2025. He’s on pace to pass his career-best of 3.9 in 2021. His batting average of .276 and wRC+ of 141 are career highs as well.

He is also on pace for his sixth straight season of 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. With back-to-back seasons of 15+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases, he is already tied for the fourth most such seasons in team history with Ken Griffey Jr. An underrated part of Arozarena’s game is his health. He’s on pace to play at least 140 games for the sixth straight season.

His K% has dropped to a career low of 20.7%, a 6.2% decrease from 2025. That’s the eighth biggest decrease in MLB. However, Arozarena’s home run total is one decline he likely didn’t want to see. He’s slugged 16 home runs this year, down from 23 at this point last season.

Adjustments made to his swing are the culprit behind this power drop, but they are resulting in a more productive season for Arozarena. Comparing his spray chart from 2025 and this season, you can see that instead of pulling the ball down left field most of the time, Arozarena is now using the whole field, spraying the ball all over.

via Baseball Savant

Shifted defenses aren’t going to be as successful against Arozarena this year, as you can’t predict where he’s likely to hit the ball. It’s resulting in a higher average and a more rounded offensive approach for him.

When looking at his swing, you can see that his bat speed, which sits at 70.9 mph, has dropped 1.4 mph since last season. While that might not sound like a lot, it’s actually the ninth-largest drop in MLB.

Ceddanne Rafaela is a nearly identical case. His bat speed decrease is the 10th largest, and his batting average has risen from .249 to .286. Both players have seen their batting averages reach career highs and increase by 37 points for Rafaela and 38 points for Arozarena.

Arozarena’s average launch angle has also decreased, adding to why his power has dropped. Going from 12.9 to 8.5, he’s been hitting more line drives than ever. Not going all in on power and instead using the whole field to his advantage has led to his most productive offensive season yet.

One aspect of his game that will hurt him when free agency comes is his poor fielding. It’s been a constant issue in Arozarena’s game throughout his career. His OAA sits at -4, and his arm value is -2. This could turn teams that need a left fielder away, but it could also bring the possibility of Arozarena becoming a DH.

Comparing him to the other top outfielder free agents in the 2026-27 class, he sits above his peers offensively and will be a very sought-after player on the market.

Player	fWAR	Home Runs	wRC+
Randy Arozarena	3.4	16	141
Ian happ	2.1	20	108
Trent grisham	1.1	15	107
taylor ward	1.5	7	110
seiya suzuki	3.2	20	133

One team that could make sense for Arozarena is the Chicago Cubs. With outfielders Happ and Suzuki both becoming free agents this offseason, the Cubs will definitely be looking at the market. The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres could also be fits for Arozarena. No matter where Arozarena ends up for the 2027 season, he should receive one of this offseason’s larger contracts.

It’ll be interesting to see if Arozarena will keep this same approach through the rest of his career. He could try to regain some of his power from past seasons, but it could come at the expense of his consistency this season.

His consistency is a key reason as to why he’ll be such a hot commodity on the market. He doesn’t have the power numbers to justify a home run-or-nothing approach at the plate.

With his speed and baserunning skills, having him get on base to score a run is where so much of his value comes from. Now that he’s getting on base more than ever, his batting and baserunning values have never been higher.

Arozarena’s time in Seattle has molded him into one of the more productive hitting outfielders in MLB, and will reward him with a lucrative deal come free agency.