Mick Abel Has Never Been More Important for the Phillies

Now that mid-June has rolled around, the battle for the National League East has been everything we could’ve hoped for before the 2025 season started. Only one game New York Mets (45-29) and Philadelphia Phillies (44-30) in the standings and both clubs have been at the top of their games this season.

While they may not find themselves atop the division just yet, the Phillies have been shockingly healthy to this point (I am knocking on wood right now). As of right now, only Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola are on the injured list. The quantity is small, but the quality of the players they’re missing is extremely high.

Nola originally went down with a sprained right ankle, but he’s now dealing with a stress fracture on the right side of his ribcage. He’s shut down from throwing and doesn’t have a solid timeframe for when he could return. Mid-to-late July or early August feels like the best-case scenario.

Losing Nola – for the first time in eight years, might I add – in particular is a tough pill to swallow, as the Phillies’ pitching depth is suboptimal as it currently stands. They’ve got a few short-term options on their current roster, but Taijuan Walker is a short-stint reliever now, and Joe Ross is best utilized as a multi-inning relief option.

This left the Phillies without many options outside of promoting their top prospect, Andrew Painter, before he’s fully ready, or giving Mick Abel a longer leash at the big league level. Abel has taken Nola’s spot in the starting rotation, and his importance to this club cannot be overstated. Let’s dive in and see why Abel continuing to pitch like he has is of the utmost importance.

All stats updated prior to games on Thursday, June 19

Mick Abel Is Filling an Important Role on the Phillies

Through a few stints in Triple-A to kick off the season, Abel was utterly dominant for Lehigh Valley. The right-hander has a total of 10 starts under his belt down there, and he’s posted a dazzling 2.21 ERA across 57 innings of work. In that time, he’s struck out 10.6 batters per nine – which is up one full strikeout from last year’s number – and he’s brought his walks down lower than they ever have been in his pro career.

It’s no surprise that he was the Phillies’ Minor League Pitcher of the Month in April.

Getting his control under, well, control has been a talking point surrounding Abel for years now, but he seems to be reeling it in at just the right time.

Rated as Just Baseball’s No. 8 Phillies prospect in Aram Leighton’s most recent ranking, Abel has brought his five-pitch mix to the big leagues and largely found success with all of his offerings. He’s thrown his four-seam fastball that averages around 96mph over 42% of the time and batters have hit just .217 off of it. His second-most relied upon weapon is a mid-80s curveball that has a .118 average against and a 40.6 Whiff%. That’ll play just fine.

To date, he’s made four starts in the big leagues. His epic six-shutout-inning, nine-strikeout performance against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his MLB debut was an outstanding look into the talent we’re dealing with here. Since Nola went down, Abel’s made three starts, posting a 3.14 ERA through 14.1 innings of work.

All told, the 6-foot-5 hurler has 20.1 innings under his belt with 17 strikeouts and just four walks. He’s slotted in nicely alongside Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez, who all continue to impress. Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent this season, but he’s already put up 2.3 fWAR, which is just 0.3 behind Wheeler.

Exposing a Lack of Depth

Don’t get it twisted, Abel was absolutely ready for a taste of big-league action. However, the weight of the world is on his shoulders to continue to fill in strongly for Nola.

We’ve already established that there are no other true starters on the Phillies’ big league roster to take over if Abel falters.

Down in Triple-A with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, a total of seven pitchers have made four or more starts this year. Exactly one of them has an ERA under 4.00, and that’d be Abel himself.

Alan Rangel, Nabil Crismatt, and Kyle Tyler have gotten the most looks outside of Abel, but none of them jump off the page as quality high-minors depth. None of this trio is younger than 27 and they all either allow too many home runs, walk too many batters, or just deal with an overall inability to prevent runs.

Painter is clearly the best-available depth option here, but he’s only 22 and is coming off of a few lost seasons. The promising hurler threw over 100 innings in 2022 but missed all of 2023 and then threw just 15.2 innings last year. He’s looked strong to start off the current campaign, but he likely won’t be a viable option until later this season. Heck, he may not even be ready by the time Nola is coming off of the injured list.

That means that Abel’s got to continue to hold his own in the big leagues, or the Phillies are going to be in an uncomfortable jam with their rotation. Having Luzardo sport an ERA of 8.80 over the past month and Abel still being a relatively unknown entity gives a club legitimately eyeing contention two concerning question marks in their starting-five.

Auditioning For His Future?

What makes this whole thing even more complicated is that Abel is both auditioning for a future rotation role on the Phillies … and also for other clubs. Matt Gelb of The Athletic recently pointed out in a mailbag piece that he believes Abel is the Phillies’ best trade chip, and it’s difficult to argue with that logic.

Wheeler is under control through 2027. Nola is under control through 2030. Sanchez is under control through 2028 (with two club options for 2029 and 2030). Luzardo is controllable through arbitration until the end of next year.

If the Phillies don’t deal Abel, where’s he supposed to fit in amongst this crew once Painter is brought into the mix as well? Abel’s shown plenty of promise, but he could very well end up being their sixth-best starting pitcher.

So there’s a very good shot here that the Phillies are leaning on Abel to continue on this strong streak for multiple reasons. The hope is undoubtedly that he can keep pitching like he has to help keep the club in contention, but don’t be surprised if the organization is also hoping his solid play results in elevated trad value come deadline time.