Revisiting the Brandon Marsh for Logan O’Hoppe Trade

Baseball is a sport with a lot of rebuilds. Trading away players with increasing salaries for younger, cheaper, talent has been happening for years. Rarely do you see teams swap young players with similar timelines.

However, that is exactly what happened on August 2, 2022 when the Phillies traded their catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels for rookie outfielder Brandon Marsh. Philadelphia desperately needed an outfielder, and with J.T. Realmuto holding down the catching position, parting with O’Hoppe was easier to stomach.

Marsh had roughly a year’s worth of major league at-bats under his belt while O’Hoppe debuted later that season. The rare swap of former top prospects just starting their careers, a need for a need, has now had a few years to unfold.

While the Phillies addressed their immediate need sooner, did they “win” the trade, or did the Angels come out on the better end? Or, have we seen another rare trade scenario, a win-win?

Stats updated prior to games on Tuesday, May 27.

The Phillies’ Side of the Trade

Marsh’s addition to the Phillies lineup immediately gave them a spark with his .280/.323/.439 slash, but only three home runs, down the stretch in the 2022 season. Sprinkle in a solid postseason run and a few big moments, and the Marsh addition was looking like a good one.

He followed up a promising start to his Phillies career with a fantastic first full season in Philly. A .277/.372/.458 slash and 125 wRC+ with plus defense gave him a 3.5 fWAR, and at only 25 years old, his future was promising. The strikeouts were still above 30%, but his 12.5% walk rate helped balance that out.

Although the numbers looked good, it was clear that Marsh was not going to add much power and was essentially a platoon bat. Still a valuable player, but one with a ceiling. His 2024 season was another solid, but unspectacular, 108 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR.

His ISO dropped, strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and his defense took a hit as well. He needed to bounce back this season and show the Phillies he could be closer to the player they saw in 2023.

Well, through 35 games, Marsh has posted the worst numbers of his career. A .225/.314/.315 slash line with only one home run and stolen base has brought his wRC+ down to 80 and dropped his fWAR into the negatives.

He’s still making the hard contact that he has throughout his career (91.8 mph avg. exit velocity), but his launch angle has been cut in half, leading to a brutal 53.2% groundball rate and a measly six extra base hits. Marsh’s defense, according to OAA, has also taken a steep decline since 2023, and he currently has -3 OAA to start the season.

A platoon-only option with declining defense and mediocre power isn’t exactly what the Phillies were hoping for. Sure, there’s time to turn it around, and I think he will. If we look back at Marsh in a few years and say Philadelphia had a solid, 2.0 fWAR player year in and year out, I’d say that’s a good outcome.

But, as always, you have to look at both sides of the trade.

The Angels’ Side of the Trade

If there’s one thing we know without a doubt about the Angels, it’s that they do not operate like any other team. Rebuild? Never. Capitalize on talented rosters? Not yet. Make strange trades and veteran signings? That’s in their DNA.

When the Angels made this particular move, it was a bit more savvy than what we are used to from them. Catcher had been a revolving door of underperformers and veterans on the back ends of their careers, and the Angels just acquired a top-100 prospect who was just about ready to be called up.

Although injuries have held O’Hoppe back at times, he’s still trending toward being one of the better young offensive catchers in the game. A 112 wRC+ and 14 home runs in 51 games as a rookie was a bright sign, even if his defense needed improvement.

O’Hoppe had a nice sophomore season but is now really breaking out in his third year. Through 47 games, he is slashing .267/.299/.533 with 14 home runs and a 131 wRC+. His bat path and plus exit velocities make for a great combination for him to tap into power. Right now, O’Hoppe has one of the highest barrel rates in the game at 19.6%.

Although the bright spots are beaming, there’s a cloud to his game as well. A free swinger who hasn’t seen a pitch that he doesn’t think he can hit often leads to a high-variance player. Without drawing walks and with a strikeout rate out above 30%, the majority of O’Hoppe’s value is going to come from his power.

No problem, he’s producing, right? I’d say his .832 OPS speaks for itself. But, it’s home run or nothing. Literally:

I guess a three-outcome hitter of home run, strikeout, or single isn’t very different from home run, strikeout, or walk. As long as he’s hitting home runs, the Angels will be happy. If the power proves to be inconsistent, however, there’s not much to fall back on.

Now, before I say too much about O’Hoppe’s defense, I should note that it’s not unusual for catchers to take a few years before improving behind the plate. Doesn’t mean it always happens, but it does occur more than you might realize.

O’Hoppe has been worth -14 runs defensively (per Statcast), including -5 already this season. He has one of the slowest pop times, grades out as a poor framer, and is a liability behind the plate. As a catcher, defense matters more than at other positions, and one has to wonder if O’Hoppe’s defense will push him to DH or first in the future.

Other Factors to Consider

Once again, I need to emphasize this was a win-now and into the future move for the Phillies. Without a clear spot for O’Hoppe, trading him to address a need while also getting years of control over Marsh was worth it, even if O’Hoppe turns out to be the better player.

Essentially, the Phillies were able to get an above-average regular whose low salary allowed them to continue to add more impactful pieces and allocate money elsewhere. Not only has Marsh brought value with his own play, but also by not taking up a ton of financial resources, which indirectly helped to improve the team.

The Angels did acquire a high-level prospect with one additional year of control at a higher-end position. That said, doing so also led to the Angels moving Edgar Quero, a high-end catching prospect, for less than 50 innings of Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López.

You could say the Angels were better off trading Marsh for a pitcher, or a player at another position, instead of just burning Quero because they had O’Hoppe. Yet, if we walked through every confusing Angels transaction, we’d be here all day.

Final Thoughts

To say one team won and another lost this trade would be disingenuous. Perhaps the Angels gained more upside, but the Phillies still capitalized by filling a need. Even if Marsh doesn’t get to his 2023 level again, Philadelphia still got value from his play and low salary during a time when they needed it.

If I had to pick one of these players to start a team with, I’d side with O’Hoppe. Despite the troubling defense, his level of power out of the catching position is hard to find. A platoon outfielder is not only easier to find, but cheaper as well. Especially one that is probably suited better for a corner.

At the end of the day, both teams benefited from this trade. Each in their own way, but a rare win-win is what I see. We’ll see how it pans out as the years go on, but I’m not sure either team would reverse it if they could go back in time.