Why Pete Alonso Should Bet on Himself and the New York Mets

When the New York Mets open their season in Houston against the Astros on March 27th, everyone expects that Pete Alonso will be in the starting lineup, where he would serve as the protection for newfound superstar Juan Soto.

Once we reach that date, no one will care about how long it took Alonso to re-sign with the Mets, or for how much. But right now, Alonso’s looming free agent decision is the biggest story swirling around the Mets, having completely overshadowed Soto’s addition in the current news cycle.

Yesterday, MLB insider Jeff Passan wrote an article for ESPN titled “Teams winning MLB’s offseason and those in need of a move”. The Mets were in the section of teams who have won the offseason so far, thanks to Soto, but they are also in need of a big move.

They need to re-sign their homegrown start first baseman.

In the piece, Passan makes note of Alonso’s free agency, and shares a very interesting tidbit on what everyone expects to happen with the Mets first baseman.

“At this point, Alonso will almost certainly get an opt-out-laden short-term deal, and the Mets do have a gaping hole at first, and until another team steps up, the expectation will be a renewal of vows. Of course, they can shift Mark Vientos across the diamond and fill the third-base void internally or externally, which gives them plenty of leverage in any conversation.“

Throughout this offseason, it has been rumored that the Mets wanted Alonso on a shorter-term deal, but to read baseball’s preeminent insider (Passan) write that he will “almost certainly” get such a deal is noteworthy.

These contracts have become a staple of agent Scott Boras’ strategy when he can’t get a client a contract that is deemed suitable.

Because of that, these deals have a certain stigma that is attached to them, as the top clients like Soto get paid, but the second tier guys are left without the long-term security they covet.

There is more risk in signing these deals, but also a great reward if you perform, where you might get paid more in the long run for doing so. Let’s explore why Alonso could fall in that camp, where signing the “Boras Special” is actually the best thing for him long-term.

Removing the Stigma of the “Boras Special” Deals

Last year, Scott Boras had four clients who did not sign a contract until the month of February, at the very 11th hour of free agency.

The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery all took the same “opt-out-laden short-term deals” that Alonso is now expected to sign.

Looking back at these deals a year later, two of them have worked out brilliantly, having already been erased by new and more lucrative deals. Meanwhile, the other two are still in effect, leaving the long-term outcome of the deals TBD at the moment.

When it comes to guaranteed money overall, Blake Snell has rightfully become the biggest earner from the “Boras Four”, as he opted out of his two-year deal with the Giants to sign a much more lucrative deal with their rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Snell earned a total of $32 million for his one year played in San Francisco (signing bonus for that deal will be paid out in 2026), and then nearly tripled the original deal’s value when he signed his current $182 million contract.

The 2024 season started off on a rough note for Snell, but a 1.45 ERA across 12 starts after the All-Star break showed that the left-hander was every bit the ace who won a Cy Young in 2023, which allowed him to cash in with the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, Matt Chapman reached his payday even sooner, as the Giants loved him so much in his first year, they handed him a six-year, $151 million extension before he could even trigger his first opt-out clause.

Things have not worked out nearly as well for Bellinger or Montgomery, who both opted into the second year of their respective deals this winter.

Bellinger is sitting in the better spot right now, as he still holds a player option for the 2026 season, and just got dealt to a far more hitter-friendly ballpark for his left-handed swing. The Yankees traded for Bellinger hoping he could help fill the void left by Juan Soto in their outfield.

This was a preferred trade destination for Bellinger, who was able to reach it with aide of his no-trade clause, which prevented the Cubs from trading him to any team.

If Bellinger has a big year playing with that short-porch in right field, he’ll be able to hit free agency again at 30 years old, where he can look to land another deal of at least three years.

It was never reported exactly what was the best offer Bellinger received in free agency, but for the point of this exercise, let’s say it was a five-year, $100 million deal.

Even if Bellinger plays out the remainder of his $80 million deal, he would be in position to surpass that $100 million if he signed even just a two-year, $21 million deal after the 2026 season.

The inflated salary of these short-term deals allows the player to maximize their earning potential, especially if they live up to past performance. That is where Snell and Chapman won big.

On the other hand, Montgomery presents the nightmare scenario that could unfold, as he posted the worst season of his career in 2024, and now is being shopped (seemingly without much interest), with only a one-year safety blanket before hitting the market again.

Alonso has been a far-more consistent performer compared to both Bellinger and Montgomery in his career, making him a better candidate to thrive under the structure of one of these deals.

Why Alonso Should Bet on Himself and the Mets

Prior to the addition of Soto, Alonso was the face of the franchise for the Mets, if not the co-face with 2024 MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor. A homegrown Met, Alonso is just 27 home runs away from passing Darryl Strawberry as the all-time franchise leader in home runs.

His importance to the Mets franchise cannot go overstated, but the realities of the market have put Pete in a tough position as he looks to cash in on everything he has done in New York up to this point.

Players of Alonso’s profile are not valued in the game to the same degree as they once were, when Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder were among the game’s highest-paid players.

With teams hesitant to commit long-term to a first baseman, we have seen the market move rapidly around Alonso, with various teams opting to sign or trade for stopgap solutions to plug their hole at first.

This has put the Mets in a great position of leverage, where they are holding Alonso’s place on the roster, but also holding out on giving him the long-term deal he desires, as there is no market pushing them to give in.

There have been some rumors that Alonso is sitting on a three-year, $90 million offer from the Mets this offseason. Now these rumors have not been backed with enough reporting to take them as a fact, but based on the Bellinger contract, that type of deal would not be surprising.

If Alonso were to sign a three-year, $90 million deal, that contract would make him the highest-paid first baseman in MLB history based on AAV, eclipsing the $29.2 million AAV from Cabrera’s 10-year, $292 million deal with the Tigers.

Alonso would not get anywhere close to that AAV if his contract was stretched out over a longer term, as his market just isn’t there to receive a deal worth upwards of even $25 million per season over a deal that stretches five years or beyond.

Let’s say Alonso got a six-year offer from the Mets that kept him on the books through his age-35 season. A contract of that length would likely come at an AAV much closer to the three-year, $60 million deal that Christian Walker just signed with the Houston Astros.

Since Alonso is the more notable player, let’s assume he’d beat Walker by a few million dollars in terms of average annual value. A six-year deal, at an AAV of $22 million, would pay Alonso a total of $132 million.

Now this would clearly be a better deal for Pete in terms of guaranteed money, but it would limit his earning potential if he performed throughout the length of the deal.

If Alonso puts up three seasons similar to what he just posted in 2024, there is every chance he could match Walker’s contract the next time he hits free agency.

After playing out a three-year, $90 million deal, Alonso would hit free agency again at 33 years old.

Walker is heading into his age-34 season, so it is not outside the question to think that Alonso could sign another solid three-year deal if he just continues to perform in his early 30s.

If you put together the proposed $90 million contract, with Walker’s $60 million deal, Alonso could end up earning $150 million over his first six free agent years. That would not be a bad outcome.

At the same time, Alonso could do even better if he has a monster season in 2025, or even in 2026.

If Alonso re-signs, the expectation is that he will serve as Juan Soto’s protection in the Mets lineup. This means he should get plenty of opportunities with runners on base, as Soto carries a career on-base percentage of .421.

Last season, Aaron Judge put up monster numbers in his lone season hitting behind Soto, as he drove in a career-high 144 runs. Comparing Judge’s two MVP seasons, the one with Soto in 2024, to the one without him in 2022, the effect of Soto is evident.

In 2022, 306 of Judge’s 696 plate appearances came with a man on base. So he had a runner on about 44% of the time. In 2024, Judge had a man on for 350 of his 704 plate appearances, or 49.7% of the time.

Having traffic on the bases half the time, resulted in plenty of great opportunities for Judge, where pitchers had to come at him, giving him more chances to do damage.

And do damage he did, hitting .322/.458/.701, with 58 HR and 144 RBI.

Those numbers aren’t significantly better than what we saw from Judge in 2022, when he hit .311/.425/.686, with 62 HR and 131 RBIs, but they are better all the same.

There is no world where Alonso gets anywhere close to those numbers when it comes to his slash line, but he could do real damage in the home run and run production departments, setting himself up for a big payday if he opts out after the 2025 season.

Coming off an NLCS run, and with the addition of Soto, the Mets are entering one of the most highly-anticipated seasons in franchise history.

If Alonso is a part of it, his chase to pass Strawberry on the Mets all-time home run list will be a great story to follow, and a deep playoff run could mean more opportunities to prove himself for a future contract. He posted an .999 OPS in his first extended taste of October last year, and could begin to build a narrative for himself as a postseason player with another good run.

Next year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is set to hit free agency, where he will likely be the top first baseman on the market as he will be only 26 years old heading into his age-27 season.

Being the second-best first baseman on that market would not be the worst thing for Alonso, as he would not be encumbered by the qualifying offer, and could look more attractive juxtaposed to Vladi, who is expected to seek a deal worth well more than $400 million.

At this stage, Alonso can only play with the hand that he is dealt, and right now that hand should be telling him to double-down on himself, because there is more money to be had in the future.

Signing a “Boras Special” can be perceived as a letdown for a free agent who was hoping to land a deal that bought out the rest of his prime, but the reality for Alonso is really not that bad.

He would get the chance to chase down the franchise home run record, and play with two superstars in Francisco Lindor and Soto, giving him a better chance to win the World Series than he has had in his entire career with the Mets.

Oh, and he also could earn more money in a single season than any first baseman in MLB history.

When you really break down the situation for Alonso, things are not all that bad for slugger. The Mets are clearly sitting in the better position in terms of the leverage of these negotiations, but Alonso will do just fine when it is all said and done.