How Should the Red Sox Line Up Their Rotation for the Postseason?

With just 13 games left in the regular season, the Boston Red Sox are gearing up for a potential playoff run. Currently holding a six-game lead over the third Wild Card spot, the Red Sox are expected to play the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Series.

This has led to a slight tweak in the rotation for their upcoming series, with Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez swapping places, and Payton Tolle sticking to third. This could be how they will line up their rotation going into the postseason.

But could Jake Bennett sneak his way into the rotation? The surprising rookie has held his own this season and has pitched well against the Yankees. Especially if the series were to go to a game three. Maybe even an opener for Game 3, while having Brayan Bello come out of the bullpen.

There are four standout choices for starters in a best-of-three series. Game 1 is likely already set, but things become unclear after that.

All stats were updated before play on Sunday, September 13.

Game 1: Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray has been the best pitcher all year for the Red Sox. It only makes sense for him to get the nod for Game 1.

The 36-year-old is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his long career. Gray has gone 17-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 4.0 bWAR. His 17 wins are a career best and currently tied for the best in MLB.

He’s also been successful versus the Yankees this year, going 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 12 strikeouts in two starts. In his last outing on June 28th, he took a no-hitter into the 8th inning and struck out nine in a no-decision. His past postseason play has been alright. In six starts, Gray has gone 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 30 strikeouts.

One addition that New York will have that Gray hasn’t dealt with this season is facing Aaron Judge. Judge has gone 5-for-12 with a home run against Gray in his career. Against other top bats in the Yankee lineup, Gray has handled them fairly well.

player	batting average	home runs	rbi	strikeouts
cody bellinger	.200	0	1	4
jazz chisholm jr	.231	0	1	4
paul goldschmidt	.038	0	2	8
ben rice	.429	2	4	1

Without Garrett Crochet available to start Game 1 like last year, Boston will turn to Gray. He’s provided stability all season long and has succeeded against the Yankees. You throw out your best arm for a pivotal first game of a series, and Gray will be that for Boston.

Game 2: Payton Tolle

Depending on the results of Game 1, this could change, but I believe that Payton Tolle is the best choice for Game 2.

During his rookie season, Tolle has posted a 9-6 record with a 3.15 ERA and 2.6 bWAR. His 159 strikeouts this season are the second-most for a Red Sox rookie, behind Daisuke Matsuzaka with 201. He ranks in the top 4% for xwOBA (.255) and xERA (2.69), and in the top 8% for xBA (.198).

Tolle is in the 95th percentile for chase percentage at 36.2% and the 89th percentile for K% at 28.9%. His addition of a sinker to his arsenal has greatly helped as well. While his sinker is technically the pitch that batters see best, hitting .299 off of it, it allows him to set up his curveball more effectively. Batters hit .169 off his curveball, a pitch that he uses to put away batters at 31.4%.

He’s been lights out against the Yankees as well, going 1-0 with an ERA of 0.69 and 18 strikeouts in two starts. The only reason why he could go Game 3 instead is if Boston were to lose Game 1 and wanted to rely on a more dependable arm in Ranger Suárez.

If they face that scenario, Tolle would still, on paper, be the better choice between the two. Even with the recent change in Boston’s rotation to close out the regular season.

Game 3: Ranger Suarez

Ranger Suarez could be the Game 2 starter if Boston values his postseason performances more than Tolle’s 2026 season. If the Red Sox are in a must-win Game 2, giving your experienced ace the nod could be more beneficial.

Even with that, looking at how Suarez’s 2026 has gone, in addition to his past starts against New York this season, would make him a more likely Game 3 starter. Boston’s big free-agent signing has gone 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 2.3 bWAR. Against the Yankees, he’s struggled, going 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in three starts.

What separates Suarez from Tolle is his postseason experience. Tolle only faced one batter in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series last season, while Suarez has over 40 innings of experience. In 42.2 innings of postseason play, Suarez has posted a 4-1 record with a 1.48 ERA, and has even recorded a save.

With Boston’s current rotation order of Gray-Suarez-Tolle, it’s more likely that the veteran will start Game 2. I still believe that it’s a matter of the result of Game 1. A win, you give the ball to Tolle, who’s been better against the Yankees, and still have a more experienced pitcher ready for a potential Game 3. A loss, you give the ball to Suarez, who has more postseason experience, and hope he can force a Game 3 for Tolle.

If Suarez were to struggle in his start, Boston will still have options to help give them a chance. Crochet has been throwing in the bullpen and is expected to be ready for the postseason. Bello, while his last two outings out of the bullpen haven’t been great, still has the track record this year of being solid in relief. Even Jake Bennett could go in long relief.

Compared to last season’s Wild Card Series, this is a much better issue to have. Last year, after Crochet in Game 1, Boston didn’t have another good starter to help close out the series. This year, deciding the rotation due to talent is the issue.