The Time is Now for Juan Soto to Carry the Mets

We told you this would happen: Juan Soto is back.

Two months into Soto’s 15-year contract with the New York Mets, fans across baseball took the opportunity to take their victory lap on Soto, who posted a wRC+ of only 119 through the end of May. While still a solid number, it is not a number that reflects the $765 million contract he received in the offseason, and was well below his career 158 number.

In that time, the Mets were 36-22 and in a tie atop the National League East with the Phillies. 

In June, things have changed for both Soto and the Mets. New York started the month well, winning nine of 11 through June 12, opening up a five-and-a-half-game lead on Philadelphia. However, things have sputtered from there. 

Starting on Friday the 13th (fitting isn’t it?), the orange and blue were losers of seven straight, including a sweep at the hands of the struggling Braves and a beatdown by the Phillies on June 20. Despite winning the next night, the Mets lost two more to bring their streak to 10 losses in 11 tries.

Now, they’re 3-12 since that Friday a few weeks back. Even with this miserable stretch, the Mets remain just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East division standings.

Stats and rankings taken prior to play on June 29.

Finding New Ways to Lose

Close to everything has gone wrong in Queens over the last two weeks. On June 12, Kodai Senga — who was leading the majors in ERA at the time — went down with a hamstring injury while covering first base.

The injury seemed to cast a bad omen immediately, as the Mets did everything in their power to give away that game, barely squeaking by with a 4-3 win over Washington in a game that was once 4-0. The next night, New York blew a 5-1 lead, allowing a six-run sixth inning to Tampa Bay in an eventual 7-5 loss. The rest of the weekend was far less competitive, as the Mets were outscored 17-4 in the final two games of the sweep.

They looked to have righted the ship after an off day, as Soto hit an early homer off Spencer Schwellenbach in the series opener in Atlanta. New York built a 4-1 lead with just four outs to get, but a three-run double by Marcell Ozuna and a sacrifice fly by Austin Riley gave the Braves a walk-off win.

Once again, the remainder of the set was one-sided, with Atlanta scoring 12 runs in the final games while the Mets mustered just a single run. A 10-2 loss in Philly stretched the streak to seven games, before they finally won behind seven solo home runs this past Saturday.

In the streak-ending game, Soto went 4-for-5 with two home runs and four RBIs. 

The Mets have not completely bounced back, as in the following three games, they lost each one in a different, potentially equally disappointing fashion.

On Sunday, the starting pitching faltered as David Peterson —  who is blossoming into an ace this season — was tagged for five runs in four innings in a 7-1 loss to the Phillies.

To open New York’s next series against the Braves, the bullpen twirled 4 ⅓ scoreless innings after Paul Blackburn gave up three early runs. Nonetheless, the pitching gave New York a chance to win. However, the offense could not do anything against the Atlanta pitching staff outside of a Soto two-run homer.

Finally, on Tuesday, Frankie Montas surprised many with five scoreless innings in his return to action after a miserable series of rehab starts. The Mets even built a 3-0 lead against Spencer Strider, but six walks from the bullpen, including four and a hit batter in the sixth inning, opened the door for five Braves runs. Atlanta went on to win the game 7-4.

In Senga’s absence, Mets’ starters have struggled to go deep into games. In the 12 games since injury, one of manager Carlos Mendoza’s starters has gone more than six innings just once, while on just five occasions in the last 12 contests has a starter finished five innings. Additionally, there have been seven games in that span in which a Mets starting pitcher handed out at least three walks.

Of the 10 losses, three have seen New York’s bullpen blow a lead of at least three runs.

What makes it even more shocking is that the Mets have the best team ERA in baseball this year at 3.27. Between June 13 and 24, their ERA was 6.11 — the second-worst leaguewide.

To add insult to injury, Griffin Canning went down with an apparent Achilles injury in a 4-0 win on Thursday, further adding to the question marks in the Mets’ bay of starters. 

Coupled with the bad pitching, the Mets simply have not scored enough during their losing stretch, as their team wRC+ is just 81. Mendoza essentially has been trotting out half a lineup, as after the top five in the batting order, New York has just had a black hole at the bottom.

Soto is Back

To start the year, Soto was not having a Soto-esque start, despite being a better-than-league-average hitter. The underlying numbers suggested that he would eventually break out, due to as-advertised hard-hit rates and strong on-base numbers.

Well…he broke out.

In June, Soto has been the best qualified hitter in baseball, posting the highest wRC+ (230) by a strong margin. He is reaching base at a near-.500 clip and has 11 homers in the month. Additionally, he has scored the second-most runs (25), posted the highest slugging percentage (.736), walked at the highest rate (22.1%) while posting the second-most fWAR in baseball (tied with Cal Raleigh and just behind Byron Buxton), at 1.8 in not-even a full calendar month.

According to Baseball Savant, he has still been unlucky, posting a 100th percentile expected batting average of .317, as compared to his actual .258 clip. Per usual, Soto is leading the league in walks.

Why Soto Is so Crucial to the Mets

It’s an old adage in sports that a team will only go as far as its stars take it. After all, the Mets recently broke a streak in which they won 28 consecutive games in which star shortstop Francisco Lindor homered. Maybe it is Soto’s turn for such a streak.

After Soto’s big day on Saturday, the Mets lost three straight before winning on Wednesday, 7-3. What did Soto do that day? 2-for-4 with a pair of homers. Even in Thursday’s victory, Soto went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored, including the Mets’ first run of the game.

While Soto struggled (again, by his standards) in April and May, the Mets’ offense was carried by hot starts from Francisco Lindor — which should net him his first All-Star nod as a Met — and first baseman Pete Alonso. 

Now, since being hit by a pitch in the foot on June 4 and fracturing his toe, Lindor has gone into a slump, posting an 83 wRC+ in the month. To make matters worse, since the first loss to Tampa Bay, Lindor has put up just a 61 clip.

Even Alonso and Jeff McNeil — two of the Mets’ more consistent hitters this season — have struggled since June 13, having 102 and 65 wRC+ marks in that span, respectively.

It all comes down to this: Juan Soto is being paid $765 million to be a superstar and carry the Mets’ offense. Whether luck figured into it or not, he was not that type of player over the first two months of the year, and the team covered for him and made do.

Now, it’s time for Soto to shoulder the load and be the superstar that the Mets need him to be. If June is indicative of what is to come for Soto, he is back to being the player that Steve Cohen threw all that money at.