For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
Today is the ultimate bounce back day. We had our worst week of the MLB season and after taking the day off yesterday I’m ready to give out some winners. There are three plays on the card and we are going to get back in the win column. It’s time to lock in. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 85-58-2 (+20.70 U)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Tony Gonsolin vs. Freddy Peralta
Entering this game all eyes are on the total. The line is sitting at 8.5 with the first five innings at 4.5 and we are going to be looking at the first five in this matchup. I feel more comfortable backing these starting pitchers then trusting either bullpens. I see a pitchers duel happening in Milwaukee.
Tony Gonsolin is making his third start of the season and is preparing to face a Brewers lineup that’s batting .236 as a team. They have the seventh worst batting average in the league and have a slightly worse batting average at home then on the road. Gonsolin is known for pounding the strike zone with his fastball that he throws over 30% of the time.
Milwaukee has struggled to make contact with hittable pitches in the zone. They are the third worst team in baseball in in Zone Contact % and the second worst team in in Zone Swing & Miss % as well according to statcast. For an offensive team facing a pitcher that throws a lot of strikes I don’t see their bats putting up many runs against Gonsolin.
For the Dodgers on the other hand they are coming off a Sunday night win over the San Diego Padres. They are going to face Freddy Peralta who has been dominate at home this season. He has a 2.66 ERA at home opposed to a 5.73 ERA on the road. Peralta has 26 strikeouts in 23.2 IP at home and has only given up one home run at American Family Field.
I like the first five under in this spot. The Dodgers are making the road trip after Sunday night baseball and are going against a better pitcher at home. The Brewers offense has been sluggish all season and Gonsolin is due for his best start of the year. I don’t trust the bullpens, especially Milwaukee in this matchup, that’s why we are going to play the first five.
The Play: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers F5 U 4.5 (-110) 1.1 U to win 1 U
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs. Marcus Stroman
I have two plays in this game. First I’m going to address the total, the line opened at 8.5 and is now sitting at 7 with some shops at 6.5 due to the weather at Wrigley for tonight’s game. The current forecast has 14-15 mph winds blowing in from left field. Wrigley unders are always the smart play and with one ace on the mound in Marcus Stroman it makes me even more comfortable playing such a low total.
For the second play we are going to back the Chicago Cubs. They are 10-9 at home and St. Louis is 5-11 on the road and Chicago has won four out of their last five home games. Miles Mikolas has a 4.86 ERA on the road and has given up more walks away from home. Mikolas has a 6.11 xERA and is in the bottom 4% of the league in xBA. The Cubs offense has been better than expected and they are hitting .268 as a team. They are also above the MLB average in most hitting categories and this is a matchup that favors their offense.
Marcus Stroman has had a nice bounce back year and has solidified himself as Chicago’s ace. Stroman comes into this matchup with a 2.18 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 41.1 IP and with the weather in his favor I see a masterclass performance for the Cubs righty this evening.
The Cardinals have struggled to win games all season and find themselves in last place in the NL Central. St. Louis is 2-8 in their last ten games and I don’t see them turning it around in Chicago with the wind blowing in. I see a low score affair between these two teams with the Cubbies pulling out a close win at home.
The Play: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs U 7 (+105) 1 U to win 1.05 U & Cubs ML (-135) 1.35 U to win 1 U