It’s Time for Brayan Bello to Take the Leap

Days after signing a six-year, $55 million contract extension, Brayan Bello made his first career Opening Day start on March 27^th, 2024.

That was a year ago. A lot has changed since then. Bello is no longer the No. 1 in the Boston Red Sox rotation. That spot now belongs to Garrett Crochet.

Bello was frustrating to watch in 2024. He was inconsistent and underwhelming. Not exactly the adjectives you’d like to see used to describe your Opening Day starter.

Bello was under a huge amount of pressure. He was asked to be the ace of the Red Sox at 24 years old. He had difficulty controlling his emotions. At one point, he spiked a baseball into the dugout after a bad outing in Toronto and then slammed his glove after giving up a grand slam to the White Sox.

If you watched The Clubhouse: A Year with the Red Sox, on Netflix, you might understand where these outbursts came from. Aside from the pressure of living up to the new contract, Bello couldn’t see his wife or his daughter during the season, who live in the Dominican Republic, as his wife couldn’t get a visa.

Netflix captured plenty of instances where Bello’s emotions got the best of him. However, now, it is easier to grasp. Bello couldn’t see his family. That can take a toll on a player.

While it originally seemed that Bello would be the No. 4 starter on the staff, injuries and regression have quickly thrown a wrench into that plan. Once again, Bello is one of the most important players on the 2025 Boston Red Sox.

Stats updated prior to games on April 22^nd.

Lack of Rotation Depth

In February, the Red Sox pitching staff was slated to be one of the strengths of the roster. The club not only added a true ace in Crochet but also supplemented that move with the signings of Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval.

Crochet has been the ace that Boston has lacked since prime Chris Sale. Through five starts, his 1.13 ERA is fifth best among qualified starters.

Buehler, fresh off a stellar postseason highlighted by striking out Alex Verdugo to win the World Series, looks to reestablish himself as one of the better pitchers in the game after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024.

Buehler has been great as of late, pitching to a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts, which includes seven innings of one-run ball on Patriots Day, racking up nine strikeouts.

Sandoval, who’s recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, will be out until at least the August. Upon his return, he will be a solid depth arm, but depth is already becoming an issue.

Lucas Giolito, Kutter Crawford, and Bello have all begun the season on the injured list. Richard Fitts, who was solid in his first three starts, has also hit the shelf after suffering a right pectoral strain during his April 12 outing.

Of the four of them, Bello’s return is the most anticipated, but not just because of injuries.

Tanner Houck’s Shaky Start

It hasn’t just been injuries that have plagued the Red Sox staff. Tanner Houck has been arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball through his first four starts of ’25.

In 24.2 innings, Houck has given up 21 earned runs, six home runs, and nine walks. Last week in Tampa, he surrendered 11 earned runs in just 2.1 IP, the worst start in Red Sox franchise history. His 7.66 ERA is the worst among qualified starters.

Location is the biggest problem. His stuff has so much movement that at times it seems not even Houck himself knows where the pitch is going. As a result, this leads to plenty of walks, limited strikeouts, and a 50% hard hit rate.

The concern goes back to the second half of ’24, even though he was an All-Star, it seemed like the Red Sox were playing with house money. In the first half, he had a 2.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 4.31 K/BB. In the second half, it was 4.23, 1.35, and a 1.91, respectively.

On the bright side, two of his last three outings have been quality starts, but it is just way too inconsistent right now to count on him long-term.

That’s why Bello is so important.

Brayan Bello’s Role

The return is nearing for Bello. He landed on the IL at the start of spring training with shoulder inflammation, but Alex Cora said he will make his season debut tonight when the Red Sox host the Seattle Mariners.

The Red Sox need him, badly. With the injuries to Giolito, Crawford, and now Fitts, as well as the inconsistencies of Houck, the Red Sox need not only stability, but high-quality pitching.

The attention turns to Bello, and once again, the expectations are high.

Over his first two full seasons, Bello’s first- and second-half splits show major discrepancies. As a rookie, he was great in the first half, and not-so-great in the second half.

In 2024, he flipped that script:

It was an interesting year for Bello, to say the least, but there was one change that seemed to turn things around. That was the acquisition of Danny Jansen.

Danny Jansen’s Impact

As I mentioned earlier, Bello was one of the most heavily followed players in The Clubhouse. In episode five, during an outing against the Yankees, Bello was frustrated with his catcher, Connor Wong, because Wong had continued to call for Bello’s sinker to start at-bats.

After Jansen was acquired, episode seven showed a mound visit between Jansen and Bello, where Bello asked what Jansen thought he should throw to start the at-bat.

Jansen responded: “I like your sinker down. You want to go backdoor slider first? That’s fine. Let’s get it out there.”

It was a small moment, but the communication was noticeable. With Bello’s second half numbers being so much better, there had to have been a reason. Was Danny Jansen the reason?

Here are Bello’s splits with Wong vs Jansen:

Bello also pitched to Reese McGuire, but it was only a five-game sample. That pairing resulted in a 5.81 ERA.

Jansen meshed much better as a battery with Bello than Wong did. If Bello felt more comfortable with Jansen, that’s likely going to make a difference, and it did. Whether it was pitch selection or simply just confidence wise, it worked.

Unfortunately, Bello won’t be pitching to Jansen anymore, as he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays over the offseason. Yet, there is still some hope that Bello may be able to build on his second half success.

It wasn’t that Bello couldn’t compete when Wong was catching. In fact, Bello’s best start of his career was caught by Wong when he went eight shutout innings against the Blue Jays in August of last year. It’s just that there was a notable difference, and perhaps Jansen even unlocked something in Bello.

Brayan Bello and Carlos Narvaez

Wong hit the IL in early April with a left hand contusion, so Bello’s first few outings will likely be with the rookie, Carlos Narvaez, behind the plate.

While the Red Sox haven’t gotten much offensive production out of their catchers this season, Narvaez has been a plus defender. Through 16 games, Narvaez is in the 96^th percentile framing. Last year, Wong was in the 9^th percentile in that category.

Working with a strong framer in Narvaez will give Bello an advantage that he hasn’t had the luxury of with Wong. Especially given the fact that Bello threw his sinker 40% of the time last year, Narvaez should be able to steal some calls at the bottom of the zone, as well as on the changeup.

When it comes to Bello’s secondary pitches, Narvaez should help too. Narvaez is in the 94th percentile in blocks above average this year, while Wong was in the 3^rd percentile last year.

In ’24, Bello’s putaway pitches were his slider and changeup. With Narvaez behind the dish, Bello will be able to throw these pitches with runners on with more conviction, knowing Narvaez won’t let it kick away.

Wong, who struggled in both those categories, forced Bello to go up in the zone more often, where he had to rely more on the four-seam.

Bello’s four-seam gets only 12.6 inches of vertical break, meaning it doesn’t have much of that “rise” effect. As a result, it was hammered at the top of—and even above—the zone.

Bello gave up 14 home runs pitching to Wong. He gave up only two with Jansen. Narvaez plays to the strengths of Bello’s profile better, so it will be interesting to see how well they work together.

Expectations

It is without a doubt that Bello has the potential to be an All-Star caliber pitcher.

His stuff is nasty. Last season, the slider averaged 7.8 inches of glove side break, and his changeup generated 36.9% whiffs. The sinker was hit hard, but still averages nearly 96 mph.

Brayan Bello, Filthy 89mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/VEYzPwLf34

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 18, 2024

Bello has shouldered some pretty lofty expectations already in his young career, but that’s expected in Boston, especially after signing a long-term deal. You don’t get compared to Pedro Martinez for no reason either, even if it is a bit far-fetched.

The reality is no one is actually asking him to be Pedro Martinez. No one is asking him to be the Opening Day starter or the ace, that’s reserved for Crochet. He’s being asked to be the No. 2, because he has the talent to be the No. 2.

When he’s on, he’s one of the most exciting pitchers to watch. If the Red Sox really want to make a run at the postseason, they’re going to need Brayan Bello to be the pitcher he’s capable of being.