Have We Already Seen Austin Riley’s Peak?

At one point in time, Austin Riley looked like one of the best young players in all of Major League Baseball. It was hard to poke a hole in his game when he was going right.

His play was part of what made the Atlanta Braves perennial contenders, and the majority of the baseball world is still holding onto that. However, things haven’t been the same for Riley for quite some time.

Yes, he’s dealt with some injuries, but even when he’s been healthy and on the field, he’s looked like a shell of the elite third baseman we got used to seeing. There’s no question he’s still been an above-average big leaguer, but were the three elite seasons to start the 2020s the peak of Austin Riley?

Will He Ever Return to Form?

Outside of some decent power output, in 131 games between 2019 and 2020, Austin Riley showed nothing that would lead one to believe he’d become arguably the best third baseman in baseball for a three-year stretch. He had a wRC+ in the mid-80s and had accumulated just 0.1 fWAR in his first two campaigns.

Fortunately, a switch flipped and, out of nowhere, the Braves had a star on their hands. His 2021 campaign was a breakout in every sense of the word and would begin a run that rivals few. That year, Riley held a .303 batting average through 160 games while surpassing 30 home runs for the first time of his young career (33).

Fittingly, he was a major catalyst for a Braves team that went on to win a World Series. This led Atlanta fans to have high hopes for the then 25-year-old heading into the 2022 season.

So, what did Riley do? Somehow, he repeated what he had done in ’21 and then some. He jumped from 33 home runs to 38 home runs and raised his wRC+ by six points.

At this point, he was undoubtedly a top-five player at his position, and he forced the Braves to make a big decision for their future.

Toward the end of that 2022 campaign, Riley inked a 10-year, $212 million deal to stay with the club that had drafted him seven years prior. It was, and still is, the biggest deal in the history of the franchise.

The contract got off to an amazing start. In 2023, Riley posted his third straight season with an OPS north of .860 and an fWAR of at least 5.0. This capped off one of the better three-year stretches we’ve seen in recent memory.

The cherry on top was the fact that he did all of this while defending at a great clip. In that three-year span, Riley racked up 29 defensive runs saved, which was 12th in all of baseball and fourth among third basemen.

Simply put, Riley had developed into one of the best and more consistent players in the sport from 2021 to 2023. What initially started with a breakout season and a World Series ring led to him signing the largest pact in Braves history.

The Fall Off

Unfortunately, something changed after that 2023 season. For one, Riley has had a relatively tough time staying on the field.

During that three-year window, Riley played 478 games, which was the fourth-highest mark in baseball. However, across the last two seasons, Riley missed 112 games.

That’s not the most concerning part, however. Riley’s production has seen a monumental dip as well. Of course, he’s dealt with injuries, but it’s not an encouraging sign for the highest-paid player in Braves history.

His 2025 campaign is especially concerning. The guy who was knocking on the door of 40 home runs for a few seasons launched just 16 long balls in 102 games, while his wRC+ of 103 indicated he was just scraping by as above league average at the plate.

Riley’s 1.7 fWAR in that year was his lowest since the shortened 2020 season, and his slugging percentage had fallen nearly 100 ticks from his three-year run.

On the flip side, fans were still optimistic for Riley heading into this year. He was looking to be fully healthy for the first time in two years and a fresh start seemed to be exactly what he needed after a worst-case-scenario season for the Braves as a whole in 2025.

Unfortunately, it’s been a disastrous start to the 2026 season for Riley. He’s slashing just .200/.308/.244 for a .552 OPS while tallying just two extra-base hits in his first 13 games.

Of course, it’s extremely early and there’s plenty of time for the now 29-year-old to turn things around. However, the quality of contact numbers don’t lead to much more encouragement. His hard-hit rate is currently sitting at 33.3% after floating in the 45-53% range from 2021-2024, while his average exit velocity is at a mere 86.4 mph.

While the sample size is small, it’s not the start he, or the Braves faithful, had in mind.

Final Thoughts

While it’s been an underwhelming and injury-riddled few years for Austin Riley, we know there’s an elite third baseman in there somewhere. The run he was able to put together between 2021 to 2023 had him comfortably in the conversation as a top-five player at the hot corner.

At times, you could’ve made an argument for him to be top three. However, an unfortunate and unexpected fall from grace has him searching for his prior self.

If he can find it, he adds a lethal bat to the middle of the Braves lineup. After a rough year for the Braves in 2025, a return to form for Riley would be most welcome.

However, we’re getting further and further removed from the performance that landed him a contract north of $200 million. Will he finally figure it out this year, or will that contract turn out to be a complete overpay?