Garrett Crochet’s Trade Value Is Still Complicated
Over the first half of 2024, Crochet's trade value was at an all-time high. Things have since gotten a little more complicated.
Despite a dominant first-half performance, Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet‘s trade value coming out of the 2024 season is up in the air. The hard-throwing southpaw gave the White Sox plenty of good pitching in a season where they definitely needed it, but his future won’t be easy to predict.
Crochet stunned the opposition over the first half of his 2024 campaign but went through a rough patch at the end of the year. Even with the extent of his early success this season, it’s hard to gauge how willing contending teams might be to pursue a trade for the young left-hander this winter.
Garrett Crochet’s Strong First Half
Heading into the 2024 All-Star break, Crochet was sporting a very appealing stat line, with a 3.02 ERA and a 2.37 FIP to go along with 150 strikeouts across just 107.1 innings of work. This was the best stretch of his career thus far and was indicative of the ceiling his talents could reach.
Crochet’s White Sox were struggling, to say the least, and his performance stood out as a diamond in the rough for the worst team in baseball. It was clear that his trade value was higher than ever, and the Sox stood to gain a great prospect haul if they dealt him ahead of the deadline.
More Strikeouts and Fewer Walks
Crochet had some of the best strikeout stuff in all of Major League Baseball in the first half, ranking first among qualified pitchers league-wide with a mind-boggling 12.58 K/9. His FIP stood second, only behind eventual National League Triple Crown-winner Chris Sale of the Braves. He limited walks at a top-10 rate.
Crochet’s strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) was 5th across MLB, something that was uncharacteristic for the young left-hander.
Across his career heading into 2024, Crochet’s command was the one consistent problem in his game. He walked 11.7% of batters in 2022 and over 20% in 2023, but lowered this total to 5.4% by the 2024 All-Star break.
With his newfound consistent ability to find the strike zone, Crochet notched his first career All-Star nod as the White Sox’s representative at the Midsummer Classic.
A Refurbished Arsenal
While the majority of Crochet’s pitch mix remained the same heading into 2024 as it was in 2023, one huge change led to his early success: a new cutter.
Prior to the 2024 season, Crochet had never thrown a fastball other than a four-seamer at the MLB level, so this cutter was certainly new territory for him. Thrown at an average velocity of 91.6 MPH, it represented a good mix of speeds between his 97.2 MPH four-seam and 84.2 MPH sweeper. It also featured a unique spin profile to further confuse hitters.
His new cutter generated a whiff rate of 32.7% and only surrendered one home run in the first half of the year, cementing it as one of his most reliable pitches.
This pitch gave Crochet a specific weapon, and he utilized it almost exclusively against right-handed batters. In the first half of 2024, he threw his cutter 384 times to righties but only 85 times to lefties, as it proved extremely effective when thrown inside to jam right-handed hitters.
Overall, Crochet’s start to 2024 couldn’t have gone better, especially considering his good health; injuries were a major concern in seasons past. Crochet’s previous season-high MLB inning total was just 54.1 IP as a reliever back in 2021, so his consistent health in 2024 was certainly an upside.
New Trade Conditions
Following the All-Star break, Crochet and his agent made it clear that if a team were to trade for him, his services would not be made available during the postseason – that is, unless he were to be granted a contract extension.
Essentially, Crochet’s camp wanted to guarantee long-term security for the left-hander in the event of a trade.
In 2024, Crochet was only making $800,000, just $60,000 over the league minimum, so it makes sense that he wanted to secure a new contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN estimated that Crochet’s asking price would be “over nine figures.”
While it is understandable that Crochet wanted more financial security if he was going to potentially risk his health by pitching deep into the playoffs, this might have made many clubs reconsider the idea of shelling out for a starter who was in the midst of only his first strong season in MLB.
If Crochet had built up a few years’ worth of dominance in Chicago, suitors might have considered his request more seriously. Then again, he may not have made such demands if he were a more proven pitcher.
Garrett Crochet’s Second-Half Woes
Ultimately, the White Sox did not move Crochet at the deadline, and he was stuck in Chicago to finish out what would become one of the worst single-season team performances in MLB history. They finished with a record of 41-121.
The 2024 White Sox were the first team to break 120 losses in a season since the 1962 New York Mets. Aside from the team’s overall lack of success in 2024, however, Crochet also struggled in the latter half of the season.
A Tale of Two Halves
While his first-half performance was characterized by newfound success and a revamped pitch mix, Crochet’s second half was characterized by a regression to his pre-2024 numbers.
In his 12 starts after the All-Star break, Crochet posted a concerning 5.12 ERA and allowed an opponents’ OPS of .823, a far cry from the 3.02 ERA and opponents’s .569 OPS from the first half.
There were still some signs of success amid this second-half slump, as Crochet’s FIP stayed at a very reasonable 3.58, and his 13.73 K/9 was good enough to rank first among MLB starters (min. 30 IP). He struck out at least six batters in six of his final 12 starts, showing that he still had great stuff in his arsenal.
The biggest difference between his two halves lay in his innings pitched, as he never pitched more than four innings in a start after the break. As mentioned earlier, his 2024 innings dwarfed his total from any other professional season in his career, so it made sense that the Sox limited his workload to a more manageable four-inning rate down the stretch.
Garrett Crochet’s Trade Value Going Forward
It’s still uncertain whether or not Crochet’s first-half breakout this season will convince a contending team to overlook his weaker second half make the White Sox a trade offer they can’t refuse.
For the time being, however, it certainly stands as a strong indication of what he can do on the mound. Despite his second-half struggles, he finished the season first overall (min. 100 IP) in strikeouts per nine (12.88), fifth in FIP (2.69), and tied for 6th in FanGraphs WAR (4.7).
It’s also worth repeating that Crochet is a left-hander, which could make him a more sought-after arm in potential trade discussions.
Playoff contenders like the Dodgers, Orioles, and Padres were linked to Crochet around the 2024 trade deadline, and another strong performance over the first half of 2025 will certainly put him on the radar of contenders once again.
Although his future is rather uncertain, Garrett Crochet is definitely one of the most interesting pitchers to watch this offseason and beyond. Even if he finds himself stuck on a historically bad team next year, he’ll still bring wipeout stuff from the mound every fifth game.