Framber Valdez and the Orioles Are a Match Made in Heaven

Entering the offseason, one could argue Framber Valdez was the top free agent starting pitcher. However, two weeks before pitchers and catchers report, the veteran left-hander doesn’t have a home for the upcoming season.

The 2025 campaign was a weird one for the longtime Houston Astro. A 3.66 ERA, 4.0 fWAR, and 192 innings is nothing to scoff at, but there was more than met the eye to the 2025 season for Valdez.

Through July, it was arguably the best season of his career. Across his first 134.0 innings, he had a 2.62 ERA and 2.90 FIP. Then came his first start of August, an 11 a.m. EST start against the Boston Red Sox, when it all came unglued. Of his final 10 starts, just four were considered ‘quality’ or better, and he had a 6.05 ERA.

But it was more than performance – Valdez also found himself in some controversy. Against the Yankees on Sept. 2, he gave up a grand slam to outfielder Trent Grisham. Then came “Cross-Up Gate,” when he hit catcher César Salazar in the chest with a fastball.

With that came questions about his makeup. Even if you want to call it a temporary lapse of judgment, it’s hard to unsee that; one can imagine that’s part of why teams have been reluctant to pursue him on a long-term contract.

But a short-term deal? That would make things interesting. And for a team like the Baltimore Orioles, who’ve had a busy offseason but remain a frontline starter away from tying it up in a bow, the pairing could be a match made in heaven.

Track Record of Elite Performance

He’s not the kind of starter that’ll go out and routinely punch out double-digit batters, but Valdez is one of the game’s best run preventers. Since 2020, he’s fifth among pitchers in innings, tied for sixth in fWAR, and 11th in ERA (minimum 500 innings).

He’s never finished higher than fifth in the Cy Young race, with two All-Star selections, but he’s consistently in that caliber of starter on an annual basis.

He’s never been as dominant as 2025 Trevor Rogers, who emerged as a potential ace for Baltimore. However, there’s comfort in knowing Valdez can pick up the slack if there’s any regression.

Four times has Valdez pitched to a sub-3.50 ERA, thrice sub-3.15. Adding that to a group with Rogers, Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish, and Zach Eflin would give Baltimore one of the more talented rotations in the American League.

A History of Postseason Success

Overall, Valdez’s postseason career hasn’t been perfect. In 85 innings, he has a 4.34 ERA. However, he’s twice had postseason runs with ERAs under 2.00, in 2020 and 2022.

The shortcomings of Baltimore’s last postseason run weren’t the fault of its pitching staff. But in 2023, the arms were certainly the problem. After losing Game 1 against the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers 3-2, the Orioles pitching staff went on to allow 18 runs over the next two games.

As a result, the No. 1 team in the American League got swept out of the postseason.

Not to say they’d have won the series with Valdez, but winning in October is predicated on run prevention. Since 2016, the only World Series champion outside the top five for postseason rotation ERA was the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers.

But beyond overall impact, Valdez has been there, done that. Even if only a one-time champion, he’s made the World Series twice and the ALCS twice more. Right now, only two Orioles have made a World Series appearance. Leody Taveras, who’ll likely open the season as a backup outfielder, and Eflin, a reliever for the Phillies in October ’22.

Valdez would bring a world of most postseason success, as well as experience. For a team looking to rebound after a 75-win season, that matters.

If Not Long-Term, There’s Minimal Risk Involved

The silver lining of Valdez not signing until at least February is that there’s a greater chance the team lands him on a bargain. That doesn’t always manifest through dollar signs; sometimes, it’s through years.

In recent years, we’ve seen many short-term, high-salary contracts shelled out. This offseason, the New York Mets signed Bo Bichette to that type of contract; Kyle Tucker got the same from the Dodgers.

Last winter, it was Alex Bregman with the Red Sox. The winter before that, it was Blake Snell with the San Francisco Giants.

Those deals aren’t always a success, but it affords the player a large salary and opportunity to reset his market sooner. As for Valdez, he’s 32 years old, so he’s only got one long-term contract in him, in all likelihood. Potentially needing to rehabilitate his image, both on and off the field, that short-term deal with an opt-out may be perfect.

It’d act as a rehearsal of sorts for the Orioles, who can see what having that extra All-Star-caliber arm does to their overall product. Having made a similar scale move in the past – adding Corbin Burnes in 2024 – they’re not foreign to this concept.

Now, Burnes was a trade acquisition, but the point remains. The impact of one year with Valdez could be just as significant. That means even more because this rotation is better than the one Burnes joined two years ago.