Five Things the Orioles Must Do to Remain Contenders in 2025

The Orioles offseason is officially underway. With the 2024 season concluded, teams must now look to next season. Until pitchers and catchers report in February, it is on the front offices to go out and improve their respective teams.

After being swept in the playoffs by the Royals, Orioles fans have to be reasonably disappointed. They entered the season among the favorites to win the World Series. However, they would find themselves getting swept for the second consecutive season.

The Orioles are now in the middle of what everyone assumed would be their competitive window. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are entering their prime. Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo have made their major league debuts. The time to compete is now and they need to prove that they should be taken seriously.

The front office has some work to do during this Orioles off-season. If they wish to show the league that they belong among the contenders, ownership and the front office need to send a message. Upgrading key positions and instilling faith in their young players is the way to do that.

1. Re-sign Anthony Santander

Anthony Santander has been a staple in this Orioles lineup since his first full season in 2019. Through some of the worst seasons in Orioles history, Santander was there providing production. With him now set to hit free agency, it would be a mistake to let him walk away.

While the Orioles could certainly fill the right field spot with some combination of Ryan O’Hearn and Heston Kjerstad, that is not desirable. Santander has been one of the Orioles most productive hitters since 2019. He has also emerged as one of the best switch hitters in baseball.

The above table shows how Santander stacks up against the best switch hitters in the sport. Ramirez, Lindor, and Marte have found themselves in MVP conversations over the last three seasons. Santander is right there with them when it comes to offensive production.

There has also been some discourse on the Orioles potentially replacing Santander in free agency. The popular name in those conversations is Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez is a good player and will help a team win, however, Santander should still be Baltimore’s number-one option for right field.

When you compare him to Hernandez, you can see why Santander should be preferred.

Being a switch hitter in a park like Camden Yards is a huge advantage. Hernandez will be taking all of his at-bats from the right side of the plate. Only 30 batted balls by Hernandez last season would have left Camden Yards. Only three parks (Fenway, Kaufman, and Loan Depot) have a more negative impact on his power.

Santander is also a better defender (marginally). Baseball Savant has Santander graded with slightly more range than Hernandez (OAA) and they have comparable arms.

Perhaps the most important reason is how much Santander means to the clubhouse. He has a relationship with the organization and an excellent relationship with his teammates. Vibes are important and Santander will help keep the vibes up.

A deal for Santander is likely in the 4-5 year range with $17M – $21M AAV depending on the length.

2. Upgrade Backup Catcher

Perhaps the greatest liability for the Orioles last season was the back up catcher position. It is important to clarify a couple of things before getting into this conversation. First, James McCann by all means seems like a great dude and cares a lot about the city. Secondly, it is not entirely his fault.

When I say that it is not entirely McCann’s fault, you have to place some blame on Adley. In games that Adley caught he had an 88 wRC+ compared to a 138 wRC+ from the DH spot. This put a lot of pressure to get Adley into the DH spot more often, in turn putting more pressure on McCann.

McCann is now a free agent and the Orioles should likely look for another option in a backup catcher.

A free agent that makes sense for the Orioles to target is Danny Jansen. He is entering his year 30 season and coming off a sub par 2024 season. After an outstanding 2022 campaign, 2023 and 2024 were disappointments. An 89 wRC+ for an offensively minded catcher is underwhelming.

On the flip side, before last year Jansen had three straight seasons with a wRC+ over 100. Even with last years disappointment, since 2021 Jansen is tied for the eighth best wRC+ among catchers (1000 PA minimum). That puts him tied with Sean Murphy and ahead of Salvador Perez. For reference James McCann ranks 27th out of 31 on that list.

The Orioles should bet on a bounce back with a one or two year contract for Jansen. A two year deal worth $10M with a mutual option could make a lot of sense for both sides.

Potential Trade Targets

The free agent market for catchers does not have the most to offer, especially with Travis d’Arnaud signing already. The Orioles could still likely make a move to upgrade the position via trade. Here are two possible scenarios worth exploring if your are the Orioles.

Christian Vazquez, MIN

The first would be a trade with the Twins for Christian Vazquez. Vazquez is in the final year of his contract and owed $10M in 2025. The Twins are looking to shed some salary and dumping Vazquez would bring them down closer to their 2024 payroll.

Vazquez has in all honesty been dreadful at the plate these last two seasons. A 65 wRC+ in 2023 and a 60 wRC+ in 2024 is quite alarming. He was able to turn it around a bit last season with a 90 wRC+ in the second half. Regardless, the Orioles would not be acquiring Vazquez for his bat.

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Vazquez would be an upgrade over both Rutschman and McCann defensively. Baseball Savant has Vazquez ranked 11th in fielding run value among catchers (minimum of 200 innings). Rutschman and McCann ranked 29th and 62nd respectively (out of 65).

The only downside of Vazquez’s defense is his sub par arm but Rutschman and McCann do not have great arms either. Where Vazquez really makes up ground defensively is in his framing. Baseball Savant has him ranked as the 10th best framer in all of baseball last season.

If you are Baltimore, you hope the bat looks like it did in the second half but if it doesn’t you are at least getting quality defense. It would also be for just one year with Samuel Basallo likely being ready in 2026. With this being a salary dump, it would likely only cost Baltimore a really low level prospect.

Joey Bart, PIT

Trading for Joey Bart would be the opposite of a move for Vazquez. Bart brings little value in terms of defense but he is coming off a career year offensively.

After being DFA’d by the Giants last spring, Bart was traded to the Pirates for Austin Strickland who is not ranked in the Giants top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline. In 2024 Bart posted a career high in fWAR (1.8) as well as almost every offensive statistic. A 121 wRC+ from a backup catcher would be a notable upgrade from McCann.

For those asking if this 2024 performance was a fluke, I think there is reason to believe that Bart can remain an above average hitter in the future. If you look at trends over his career, one point of interest is his walk and strikeout rates.

In 2022 he posted a career high 8.9% walk rate (slightly above league average) but coupled it with an abysmal 38.5% strikeout rate. Then in 2023 he was able to cut the strikeout rate to 24.2% but the walk rate fell to 3.2% (small sample size, 95 PA). Finally in 2024 he put both together, posting a 7.8% walk rate with a 25.9% strikeout rate. While that is still a high strikeout rate, it is far from egregious.

Some changes in his approach could also indicate that the offensive production is here to stay.

First, he cut down his chase rate from over 30% in the previous two seasons to 26% in 2024. He also cut down on his overall swing rate from 62.3% in the last two seasons to 58.8% in 2024. Hopefully, this is a sign of being more selective at the plate.

Perhaps the most positive indication is a jump from 76.4% to 86.1% in zone contact. A ten percent jump in zone contact while also becoming more selective is encouraging. So why would the Pirates be willing to move Bart?

In 2025 the Pirates are going to be looking to make room for Bart, Endy Rodriguez, and Henry Davis who are all catchers. Davis has been playing some right field so they could likely make it work, but moving Bart would free up some space for their younger players. The Pirates are also still rebuilding and after getting Bart for practically nothing, they could move him for a profit.

The Orioles would likely have to give up a mid tier prospect considering Barts three years of control. Someone like a Braylin Tavera or Michael Forret come to mind.

3. Replace Corbin Burnes

This is the most important thing that the Orioles need to do this off-season. Replacing Burnes is no small task. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and now leaves the Orioles without an ace heading into 2025.

It should also be noted that the Orioles will also be without Kyle Bradish for most, if not all, of the 2025 season. That leaves quite a hole at the top of the rotation for the Orioles. Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott did not show a ton of promise in terms of picking up any of that slack.

With that said, the Orioles should be in search of two starters to add to this roster in 2025. No serious playoff contender has Trevor Rogers as their fifth starter. Now on the other hand, a team with Dean Kremer as the fifth starter, pushing Suarez into the bullpen, is a real threat in the AL East and to make a postseason run.

There are two approaches that seem realistic for the Orioles. The first is landing one of the big free agents and then acquiring a lower-level starter to add some depth. The other is targeting two mid-tier options.

Big Name Approach

This is the Orioles first off-season under new leadership. It is unclear just how aggressive David Rubenstein is going to be with his checkbook headed towards 2025. If he does decide to open it up, the Orioles likely have a real chance at one of the big name free agent starting pitchers.

The three best free agent pitchers this off-season are Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell. Ultimately the big market teams likely price the Orioles out of Burnes. That leaves Fried and Snell. Teams might still be a little wary of Snell and if the Orioles are willing to give him the years he is looking for they could land him.

After a botched free agency last year, Snell missed spring training and consequentially had a rough start to the season. He followed that up with 68 innings in the second half with a 1.45 ERA. When he is on, he is as good as any pitcher in the league.

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Snell should command somewhere around five years and $25M AAV. Baltimore could lock up an ace for the foreseeable future with Snell.

The more interesting note would be who could make sense as a second signing. Two names that would add some depth are Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney.

Lorenzen offers some versatility as he is comfortable coming out of the bullpen. He threw 130 innings with a 3.31 ERA in 2024. The advanced statistics indicate a lot of luck for Lorenzen but he consistently outperforms them.

Heaney has been fairly steady over the last two seasons. 307 innings with a 4.22 ERA. As a lefty in Baltimore, it isn’t unreasonable to assume his numbers would improve. He will be a little more expensive than Lorenzen.

Mid Tier

This could prove the best route for the Orioles. Going after two mid level free agents could allow them to save some money to ensure that they can bring Santander back or make other signings. Here are a handful of pitchers that fit the bill for Baltimore.

Nathan Eovaldi is the best of the rest when it comes to free agent pitching. The soon-to-be 35-year-old is likely going to sign a short-term deal. While he will likely command a contract that is at least $20 million per season, the shorter length will offer the Orioles more flexibility in the future. He has been a mark of consistency with an ERA under four in every season since 2020.

Sean Manaea is coming off a great season for the Mets. The lefty would be a solid fit in Baltimore. In 636.2 innings since 2021 he has a 4.14 ERA. He will command more years than Eovaldi, likely in the four to five range.

Finally, I think Walker Buehler is an intriguing option for Baltimore. It is really hard to see Buehler in anything other than a Dodgers jersey but if he is testing the market, Baltimore should be players.

He is in prime position for a one-year prove-it deal coming off his second Tommy John surgery. Not sure at all what the market will be for Buehler, but his upside offers perhaps the best bang for your buck in free agency.

4. Exercise Patience with Holliday and Mayo

The first three points of emphasis for the Orioles involve things that need to happen this off-season. This point however involves how the Orioles operate after opening day.

If the Orioles want to get the most out of their lineup, especially down the stretch, they are going to have to exercise some patience with both Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo.

In 2024 the Orioles were not patient with their prospects at all. They largely expected them to come up and make an impact immediately. When it comes to Holliday they sent him down after just 34 plate appearances in his first stint. While it was ugly, sending him down after just 34 plate appearances felt unjustified.

When opening day 2025 rolls around, Holliday and Mayo should both be on the big league roster. Finding starting spots for both of them plus Jordan Westburg will be tough but it is doable.

Neither have anything to gain from more time in Triple-A. Holliday posted a 142 wRC+ there last year and Mayo had a 135 wRC+.

Both Holliday and Mayo are set to be good, if not great major leaguers. They could be a part of making this Orioles lineup one of the best in the league. Having Holliday and Mayo swinging it well in the eight and nine holes would be huge for the Orioles.

5. Trade for Devin Williams

This may be a surprising note to some on the to do list. Why would the Orioles trade for Devin Williams?

With Felix Bautista returning, they don’t need a lock down closer. They even have quality behind Bautista with Yennier Cano and Seranthony Dominguez. The Orioles should trade for Williams to send a message.

World Series competitors take every opportunity to reinforce their team. If the Orioles want to play with the big boys, the perfect way to send that message is by making a trade for a player that makes your already great bullpen an elite one.

They have the prospect capital to make this trade work and probably not even feel it in their system. When trading for an ace (Corbin Burnes) with one year of control it took DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, and a comp pick. A high-leverage reliever should command a little less. Chayce McDermott and Max Wagner should do it, maybe a little bit more.

This should be a year where the Orioles push all of their chips in. Show the league that you are going to compete with the big boys.