Five Biggest Questions the Padres Face This Offseason

After an overhyped and ultimately disappointing season in 2023, the San Diego Padres securing a playoff campaign just one year later was an impressive comeback. Still, the team’s NL Division Series elimination at the hands of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t leave anyone in San Diego feeling particularly inspired, and the Padres head into the 2025 season with something to prove.

How Did the Padres Get Here?

Superstar Juan Soto was the hottest target in free agency this winter, and while big-market teams fought to sign the slugger to the largest contract in professional sports history, that storyline was just a little too familiar for Padres fans. Just over two years ago, the Padres acquired Soto from the Washington Nationals in the biggest move of the trade deadline, bolstering their roster for what the team hoped would be the start of their contention season.

It didn’t really work out that way. After advancing to the postseason in 2022, the Padres were eliminated in the NL Championship Series, and despite a franchise-record $255 million payroll in 2023, they finished the season with just 82 wins and no playoff berth.

Last offseason, the Padres tried to reign in their spending, especially since they already had so much money tied up in Manny Machado (10 years, $300 million), Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million), Fernando Tatís Jr. (14 years, $340 million), and Yu Darvish (six years, $108 million). Instead of targeting free agent upgrades, San Diego focused on the trade market, most notably sending Soto to the New York Yankees and acquiring infielder Luis Arráez from the Miami Marlins.

In 2024, the Padres bounced back from their disappointing showing the season prior, finishing second in the NL West with a 93-69 record. They advanced to the Wild Card Series and swept the Atlanta Braves in two games, but were eliminated in the NLDS by the Dodgers, who would go on to win the World Series.

Going into 2025, the Padres have a chip on their collective shoulder. While payroll constraints will likely continue to dictate their offseason spending, general manager A.J. Preller has made it clear that he’s determined to give San Diego its first World Series title — and manager Mike Shildt believes he will be as creative as he needs to be in his moves this winter.

AJ Preller has moves "up both sleeves" …and some other places, says @Padres Manager Mike Shildt. pic.twitter.com/bi2zWB4M3h

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) December 2, 2024

“Does [Preller] have something up his sleeve? He’s got stuff up both sleeves, down his pants, in his shoes,” Shildt told Foul Territory TV. “I mean, he’s got stuff going on everywhere. This cat is always getting after it. I couldn’t even begin to keep up with hardly any of it. … He’s going to do everything he can within the parameters he’s given to give us a competitive club.”

Still, there are a number of major questions that the Padres need to be answer before Opening Day 2025.

How Will the Padres Round Out the Starting Rotation?

With pitcher Joe Musgrove sidelined for the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL, the Padres have work to do on their starting rotation. Going into next year, the team’s rotation has a strong 1-2-3 punch in Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Darvish, but the rest of their starting options — Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron, and maybe Jhony Brito — leave a fair bit to be desired.

The Padres would ideally add two starters to their rotation this winter, but the available options are shrinking. Already this offseason, Yusei Kikuchi has signed with the Los Angeles Angels, Luis Severino has joined the Athletics, Frankie Montas has inked a deal with the New York Mets, and Shane Bieber has gone back to the Cleveland Guardians.

San Diego is still in the conversation to sign Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki, with other remaining options including Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler, but they shouldn’t wait too long to make a move.

If the Padres target Sasaki — and they definitely should — he wouldn’t break the bank, despite his undeniable talent. Because he’s under the age of 25, Sasaki is still considered an amateur under MLB’s international free agency rules and is therefore subject to the bonus pool for international free agents. This means the 23-year-old will be forced to sign a deal for just a fraction of his market value, with no team in MLB able to spend more than $7,555,500 next season. Since teams’ pools can be reduced for going over the luxury tax threshold or signing a qualifying-offer free agent, the Padres’ bonus pool for 2025 is just $6,261,600.

After Sasaki, San Diego could look to Flaherty or Buehler — who would likely come cheap after a disappointing 2024 season, though that obviously comes with its risks — as a fifth starter.

Another consideration for the Padres this offseason is that both Cease and King are entering their final season of arbitration eligibility in 2025, meaning the extension talks should be starting, if they haven’t already. San Diego acquired both star pitchers in trades before the 2024 season — Cease from the Chicago White Sox and King from the New York Yankees — and they were crucial as the team’s top two starters this year. While their extension conversations may not be the highest priority while the Padres are still trying to lock down their rotation for next year, they are still considerations as the team looks at adding payroll for the 2025 season and beyond.

Will Ha-Seong Kim Return?

Even after his stats dropped off this season, it feels like an understatement to say that Kim was a fan-favorite in San Diego — there are few players who inspire fans to chant their name every time they step up to the plate. Still, he became a free agent at the end of the 2024 season after declining his end of a mutual option, and unless the Padres move to re-sign him before another team snaps him up, Kim will be a fan-favorite somewhere else by Opening Day 2025.

Since making his MLB debut with the Padres in 2020, Kim has slashed .242/.326/.380 with 47 home runs, 200 RBI, and 78 stolen bases. After posting a career-best .260 average with 17 home runs in 2023, Kim’s stats dipped this year, with the shortstop batting .233/.330/.370 with 11 home runs, 47 RBI, and 22 stolen bases in 403 at-bats. His disappointing Batting Run Value of 0 placed him below average among MLB batters, but his 12.3% walk rate ranked him in the 96th percentile, and he led the Padres in stolen bases.

On defense, Kim continued to display his strong skills at shortstop in 2024, having won a Gold Glove Award for his work the season prior. The 29-year-old posted 4 Outs Above Average (OAA) to rank in the 85th percentile of all qualified fielders this season, and his Fielding Run Value of 3 put him in the 70th percentile.

At the end of September, Kim announced he would undergo shoulder surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder that he sustained sliding into first base during a game in mid-August. The starting shortstop missed the Padres’ entire playoff campaign due to the injury, and while his recovery timeline is still uncertain, he’s expected to miss at the least the start of the 2025 season, though it could be longer.

Kim declined his side of an $8 million mutual option for 2025, instead receiving a $2 million buyout from the Padres and becoming a free agent. While sad for fans in San Diego, his decision wasn’t surprising — even with him missing part of next season, Kim’s stats over the last few years will almost definitely land him a multi-year deal this winter.

So will the Padres bring him back to San Diego?

When Kim went on the IL, the Padres moved Bogaerts from second base to shortstop and put Jake Cronenworth on second, which is the arrangement they’ll likely stick with next season. It’s not a terrible plan, but it also doesn’t make for an elite infield in San Diego.

At the Padres’ end-of-season press conference, Preller didn’t rule out re-signing Kim for 2025.

“He’s a really talented and valuable player,” Preller told MLB.com. “From our standpoint, we’d love to bring him back. We’ve just got to get into [the offseason], see where that leaves us.”

Well, the time has come to make the call, and if the Padres want Kim back on their roster, they need to move quickly — he’s unlikely to have trouble finding other potential suitors.

Is a Reunion With Jurickson Profar in the Cards?

Less than a season after he opted out of contract to become a free agent, the Padres signed Jurickson Profar to a minor league deal to return to the organization on September 1, 2023. A few months later, the outfielder’s second stint with the team was locked in with him signing a one-year, $1 million deal with a potential $1.5 million in performance incentives. Profar became a free agent again after the 2024 season, but is yet another reunion on the table?

As comeback seasons go, Profar’s was impressive. Mere months after being released by the Colorado Rockies and ending up in the Padres’ minor league system, the 31-year-old had the best offensive season of his career in 2024, earning his first All-Star selection and Silver Slugger Award.

JURICKSON PROFAR GO-AHEAD 3-RUN HOMER 🔥

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/4SojwLNXED

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) August 21, 2024

In 564 regular-season at-bats, Profar slashed .280/.380/.459 with a career-best 24 home runs, 85 RBI, and a 134 OPS+ that placed him 34% above league-average. While his fielding was below average — he ranked 242nd out of 274 qualified fielders with -7 OAA — Profar’s performance at the plate was impressive enough for Prellar to compliment at the Padres’ end-of-season press conference, commenting that the outfielder is “somebody we’re definitely interested in talking to and is a real part of what we’re doing.”

If the Padres decide to pursue a new deal with Profar, it’ll be a big step to solidifying their batting lineup for next year — but they will need to be prepared to spend more than they did for his services last season. After a career-year at the plate, Sportrac projects Profar will land a 2-year, $25.8 million deal this winter, and B/R has projected even higher, writing that a two-year, $34 million deal with a $17 million club option for 2027 could be likely.

Still, one thing is clear — Profar wants to stay in San Diego.

“I’m a free agent now,” Profar told MLB.com. “But I want to be [with the Padres]. This team, I think they have all the things to win a World Series. Mike Shildt built a beautiful thing here. Hopefully, I’m part of it.”

Will the Padres Add an Experienced Bench Bat?

If there was one thing the Padres learned from their postseason elimination in October, it’s that their offense needs to be able to stay aggressive when it matters most. After one of the best offensive displays in franchise history during the regular season, and 30 runs scored in the five 5 games of their playoff campaign, the Padres’ bats went cold when facing the division-rival Dodgers in the NLDS. San Diego didn’t record a single run in Game 4 — allowing Los Angeles to tie the series — and only managed to put up 2 in the deciding Game 5.

Going into 2025, the Padres aren’t looking to repeat that experience. Especially if the team doesn’t re-sign Profar, they will need to add an experienced bat to the lineup, even if it’s just coming from the bench.

Is San Diego content with Luis Campusano at catcher?

Luis Campusano went into the 2024 season as the Padres’ primary catcher, having thrived in the role during the second half of 2023. He started the season well, playing in 28 of San Diego’s first 33 games, but it didn’t take long for things to cool off. By the All-Star Break, Kyle Higashioka had effectively dethroned him as the team’s everyday man behind the plate, and after Elias Díaz was added to the roster on August 27, Campusano was optioned to the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas on September 11.

In 2024 with the Padres, Campusano posted an abysmal Fielding Run Value of -13 to rank in the first percentile of all qualified fielders, with -8 blocks above average behind the plate. He didn’t make up for his poor defensive stats at the plate, either, slashing .227/.281/.361 with 8 home runs and 40 RBI in 277 at-bats.

Higashioka became a free agent at the end of the year (and since signed with the Texas Rangers), meaning that without an upgrade behind the plate, the Padres will go into 2025 with Campusano back as their primary catcher — but that is “unlikely,” according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

“Whether or not [Higashioka] comes back, the Padres seem unlikely to turn over the catching reins to Campusano, a former top-three prospect for the club,” Feinsand wrote on December 2. “He looked to be reaching his potential with a solid 2023 (7 HR, 30 RBI and an .847 OPS in 174 plate appearances), but he regressed last season (8 HR, 40 RBI, .642 OPS in 299 PA), making him a change-of-scenery candidate who remains under club control through 2028.”

Over the next few weeks, the Padres will almost certainly have an upgrade at catcher on their to-do list. The team may keep Campusano as depth, hoping he bounces back after his performance in 2024, but don’t be surprised if the 26-year-old has a new home by Opening Day next year.