Dustin May Is Giving the Cardinals Something To Think About

When the St. Louis Cardinals signed 28-year-old right-hander Dustin May, the belief was he wasn’t long for the organization.

Once a top prospect of the Los Angeles Dodgers, May has struggled to find consistent footing at the major league level. Whether it be injuries or performance-based, the right-hander hasn’t lived up to the hype.

In 2026, his overall numbers hardly scream “breakout.” However, after consecutive bad starts to open his Cardinals tenure, May’s been razor sharp.

In his past six starts, the former prized pitching prospect has a 2.55 ERA. Across that stretch, he’s got five quality starts. The one start that isn’t counted as quality, he allowed just one run across 5.1 innings.

His under-the-hood metrics show he’s gotten somewhat lucky, but his 3.28 FIP and 3.90 expected FIP echo his solid play.

Strikeouts haven’t frequented his game, as he’s got just 25 across this 35.1-inning stretch. That said, he’s avoiding walks and getting ground balls at a 46.2% clip.

As a result, he’s giving the Cardinals something to think about as summer approaches. After posting a 15.95 ERA in his first two starts, he’s emerged as a viable starter for a team that’s defied expectations through its first 41 games.

As mentioned, the idea behind signing May was that he’d be a flippable asset. For better or worse, May would eventually fetch the Cardinals young talent to help assist them in their rebuild. With this recent stretch, what’s stopping the organization from making him a part of their next run of greatness?

Altered Expectations for Dustin May

The Cardinals have a young rotation, with an average age of 27.5 years old. Despite being the second-oldest of the five, May is third in career innings (366.1) behind Matthew Liberatore (376) and Andre Pallante (502.1).

Injuries played a major role in hindering May’s volume at the MLB level. In fact, last year was his first MLB season making more than 14 appearances or 10 starts. That 2025 campaign came a year removed from missing another season to injury. After having elbow surgery in July 2023, May fractured his esophagus while on rehab in 2024.

His first full season had mixed results, but it ended rather ugly. After spending his entire professional career with the Dodgers, he found himself exiled from the starting rotation in July. Then, in the final hour leading up to the trade deadline, he was traded to the Boston Red Sox.

After six appearances, five being starts, he posted a 5.40 ERA before getting shut down with an injury and not pitching again after September 3.

But last year, May found himself in two environments where winning was top priority. While both organizations prioritize development, and that extends to the MLB level, there’s only so much you can be patient with when you’re simultaneously striving for a World Series.

With the Cardinals, they’ve got more emphasis on development even at the MLB level this year. While they’re 24-17 this season, third in the National League Central, they’re going to be patient with their young talent in hopes they can adapt to the MLB game for the future.

The Case to Extend

It’s becoming more common for pitchers in their late-20s, early-30s to experience a breakout. At 28 years old, May is in the early part of the stereotypical prime of his career.

That said, he’s still well short of 400 career innings. So, while 28, he doesn’t quite have the mileage on his arm as some of his peers.

Moreover, he’s a former top prospect with top-100 pedigree. There’s a reason his right arm garnered so much praise as he developed, and why every hypothetical trade for Dodgers prospects featured him for several years.

Part of why he was so highly touted was the velocity on his sinker with a tremendous array of breaking balls. This season, his fastball velocity is back over 97 mph — 85th percentile — on average. Last year, he averaged 94.8 mph on the heater — 58th percentile.

With the return of his velocity is his improved run value on the fastball.

He’s also refined his command through eight starts. Last year, his 9.6% walk rate was the 15th-highest among 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings. This year, his 6.1% walk rate is tied for the 25th-lowest among 145 starters with at least 20 innings.

He’s seen positive gains on his cutter in 2026 as well. After it got crushed last year, particularly in Boston, May’s holding opponents to a .271 wOBA on 20.2% usage. Is that great? No. However, it’s a massive step forward.

Moreover, he’s been around winning his entire career. He’s been around Hall of Famers like Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. May’s been privy to oodles of pitching knowledge in his career. That alone makes him valuable to this next wave of Cardinals starting pitching.

If the Cardinals view his improvements as sustainable, why shouldn’t he be part of their future plans?

The Case to Trade

On the flip side, maybe the Cardinals don’t view his improvements as sustainable. If that’s the case, it pretty much makes the entire case for them.

However, even if they like the direction this 28-year-old is going in, who knows how long they envision this rebuild lasting. While plans can change on a dime, there’s a reason the Cardinals offloaded Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado this past offseason.

They want to look toward the future and develop this next wave of Cardinals greats. May certainly can be part of that. That said, if they’re looking at a three-year rebuild, do they view the former him as a key contributor to a playoff team at 31 years old?

What’s certain, though, is there will be buyers at every trade deadline. Sure, sometimes the market skews towards the buyers, but there’s always a need for pitching. The Cardinals having May, an expiring arm still young enough to get better, own one of the more intriguing arms on the market.

That’s not to say there will be a bidding war, especially without knowing how the next eight weeks will look for him. But a rebuilding team should be eager to acquire more dartboard throws.

Again, the market will dictate a lot, but the Dodgers got 2025 first-round pick James Tibbs III and outfield prospect Zach Ehrhard from the Red Sox for May with a 4.85 ERA and bad under-the-hood metrics. While May’s 2026 ERA mirrors that of last year, his under-the-hood data is much better.

Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom became much-maligned in his tenure in Boston for not being decisive on the trade market, particularly at the deadline. How he handles May as a trade chip will say a lot about what he’s learned since that first tenure ended.