The Scuffling Tigers Are Set to Have a New-Look Rotation
It's been an eventful 24 hours for the struggling Tigers, as injuries and trade news have dominated the headlines in Detroit.
Monday afternoon was a bit chaotic for fans of the Detroit Tigers. First, the team struck a trade with the Minnesota Twins that netted both Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak in exchange for 19 year-old catching prospect Enrique Jimenez.
Second, before everyone could finish arguing about the trade, news broke that starting pitcher Reese Olson would miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, shifting fans’ focus from padding rotation depth to needing to add another arm.
Not to mention Parker Meadows hit the IL at the same time. Brutal.
Although the Tigers have been stuck in a cold streak, they still own the largest divisional lead in baseball. They have accomplished too much this season to simply cash it in and hope for better luck next summer. Instead, they need to find a way to push through, continue to add, and bounce back from their rough stretch.
Easier said than done. With one of their best arms now out, how can they work the rotation and who could step up to keep the ship from sinking?
Addition of Chris Paddack
At the time of the addition, I viewed Paddack as a perfectly capable back-end starter who will help eat some innings down the stretch. Not ecstatic, but happy enough that a major leaguer was added. Fast forward 20 minutes and Paddack is suddenly a replacement for Olson and his 3.15 ERA.
Paddack is not nearly as talented as Olson, but is a legit major-league arm. A 4.95 ERA and 4.39 FIP is serviceable and welcomed considering the current options. The bad? He’s often injured himself, doesn’t strike out many batters, and pitches to contact – which is often hit pretty hard – to get outs.
Nothing about Paddack is going to jump off the page but inconsistencies have ballooned his numbers. Paddack has made 21 starts, four of which he surrendered nine, eight, six, and five runs. He also has 12 starts of two or fewer runs. He lives in the strike zone which limits his walks but can also make him susceptible to blow up outings when he doesn’t have his best stuff.
He did add a sinker this offseason which he has thrown less than 50 times all season. The Tigers organization has been known to like pitchers who throw sinkers and I wonder if they will make a tweak and up the usage in hopes of improving his groundball rate and leaving less reliance on his four seamer.
With Jackson Jobe and Olson out for the year, and Alex Cobb still yet to pitch in a Tigers uniform, Detroit needed to find someone who could munch on some innings down the stretch. Considering the cost to acquire was not steep, Paddack is a fine addition.
However, adding a player of Paddack’s caliber does not change the trajectory of this team. Dobnak is essentially a non-factor so there isn’t much he can offer. It might help them stay where the are and keep them from sinking, but I don’t think Vegas is rushing to change the World Series odds when they heard the deal went through.
It seems to me that an impact player(s) will have to come in way of a bat or bullpen arm. Beefing up the bullpen could help the rotation in a similar way that we saw late last season with the coined pitching chaos term.
Jack Flaherty Becomes a Major Factor
When the Tigers brought Flaherty back, the assumption was he would bring a similar level of play to last season. Well, that hasn’t been the case. Through 109.2 innings Flaherty has a 4.51 ERA and 4.13 FIP, well short of his 3.17 ERA and 3.48 FIP last season.
The swing and miss is still there. He’s striking out nearly 30% of batters and the knuckle curve looks lethal. The issue has been his command reverting back to pre-Tigers days inhibiting him from getting ahead in counts and allowing him to dance just outside of the zone to generate uncomfortable swings and poor contact.
Although it might feel differently, Flaherty has not been nearly as bad as it might seem. The back to back starts of seven and eight runs was brutal, don’t get me wrong, but he’s been much better since allowing three or less runs in each of the six starts, all including six or more strikeouts.
In order for the Tigers to still reach their ceiling this season Flaherty is going to have to pitch to the level we know he is capable of. Without Olson, he and Mize become the next options in the Tigers playoff rotation.
And you know what, I’m okay with that.
Flaherty has as much talent as any of the pitchers the Tigers would likely be willing to acquire at the deadline. Not saying he’s better than any arm available, but let’s be honest about what the team’s willingness to acquire those would be.
No, he isn’t as dominant as he was the first go-round with the Tigers but he has the ability to be just what they need – a number two starter. We have seen it in the past and we’ve seen it at times this season. I have more faith in Flaherty working with this staff to iron out any issues than I do in bringing in a middle of the pack starter and hoping that guy is the answer.
Final Thoughts
The Tigers have had a month from hell. Poor play, injuries, brutal losses. You name it, they have been through it. Maybe I’m delusional but I do not think the Tigers drop off a cliff from here. Now, if Paddack is the biggest addition they make this week, big trouble. But I think more is coming.
I should note that there is a slim chance Olson could return for the playoffs. I wouldn’t keep my hopes up but obviously that makes the rotation look different in October. Rolling with Paddack and some combination of Keider Montero, Troy Melton, and Jose Urquidy sounds less stressful if it is only to get throw the dog days, and not to win you games in the fall.
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