Was Nolan Jones a One-Hit Wonder, or Is He Back on Track?

Who comes to mind when you think of one-hit wonders? Perhaps a slew of pop and rock stars with that one song that floats through your head, followed by the thought, “I wonder what happened to them?” Well, the baseball world can be just as cruel.

Let’s go back to March 22, when one of the most bizarre trades went down. The Colorado Rockies traded Nolan Jones, whom they acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in ahead of the 2023 season, back to the Guardians for utility player Tyler Freeman.

At the time everyone’s reaction was the same: WHAT ARE THE ROCKIES DOING?!

It’s a question that we continue to repeat season after season.

Sure, Jones had struggled coming back from injury, but this is the same guy who went 20/20 a season prior with a 137 wRC+, and the Rockies ship him off for a utility guy who brought zero power and not much else to the table? Hence the dramatic reaction to the trade.

I’m sure you know where this is going. Freeman has gone on to slash .323/.404/.422 with the Rockies while Jones is struggling to breach a .650 OPS. The trade looked lopsided at this time and has done a complete 180 ever since. Which makes me wonder, is Nolan Jones a one-hit wonder?

Nolan Jones’ 2023 Breakout Season

Cleveland had essentially given up on Jones, a former top-100 prospect, as a 40-man roster crunch forced their hand into moving on. Jones’ first season enjoying Coors Field was a true breakout, slashing .297/.389/.542 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in only 106 games.

Although Jones still ran a high strikeout rate thanks to a 32% chase rate, his eye for the zone helped fluff his on-base percentage, and his power that was promised finally popped. Jones posted an impressive 15.7% barrel rate while showing power to all fields.

We aren’t talking about cheap home runs, either. Moonshots. 10 of his 20 home runs were over 400 feet with six clearing the 450 mark. The power was impressive, but it was not the only attribute Jones brought. His speed allowed him to find added value while his arm in right graded out as one of the best in baseball.

The Rockies looked like they had found a core foundation piece in their rebuild. But was it real?

I know we can all roll our eyes at expected stats at times, but Jones might have been trying to tell us something. His .297 average came with a .249 xBA, and his .542 SLG was much higher than his .499 xSLG.

The biggest fluke might have been his .317 average and .594 SLG on breaking balls, a pitch type he’s yet to hit .220 against ever since.

Jones was also running a .401 BABIP, which is not crazy to believe for a guy who put up a 15% barrel rate. We all knew that wasn’t going to be sustainable year over year, but what we did not know is just how much the drop-off would alter those numbers.

Can Jones Bounce Back?

Players like Jones are always difficult to predict year to year. When a player has raw power like Jones does, all it takes is a handful of mistake pitches in a season to make his numbers look drastically different.

Injuries dampened what was supposed to be an even bigger breakout in 2024. A back and knee injury never really allowed Jones to find a rhythm and his .227/.321/.320 slash showed it. The biggest disappointment was his power that drained to a measly three home runs.

Now back in Cleveland, a chance for a fresh (I guess we’ll call it that) start with better help was supposed to get him back on track. However, the power is still missing, and the player that saved Rockies fans from a completely miserable 2023 season is gone.

The Struggles Continue

To Jones’ credit, he has managed to cut his whiff rate from 32% down to 25%, which, in turn, has dropped his strikeout rate by four percent as well. These raw numbers are mostly due to him not swinging through as many fastballs.

Jones has also made a significant change in his zone-contact rate. In Colorado, he was only making contact on 71.5% of pitches within the zone. That number has jumped to 81.4% this year, which is right around league average. That’s great and all, but is this taking away from his power?

Let’s jump back to those pesky expected stats. Jones currently has a .330 SLG but a .425 xSLG. Likewise, his xBA is nearly 30 points higher than his actual average.

He started slow to begin the season but posted a .736 OPS in June and .733 OPS in July. He’s still hitting the ball plenty hard (91.5 mph average exit velocity) and is lifting the ball better than he has the past two seasons, but balls just aren’t going out of the park.

Since June 1, Jones has a 114 wRC+, 12.3% BB%, and a 24.5% K%. Those are all great signs, which tells me that his timing is starting to get better. The problem has been an inability to get into his pull-side power, though. In that same span, Jones has only pulled 32.4% of balls with 44.6% going up the middle.

Although Jones has the raw power to go deep to all parts of the ballpark, getting to his pull side is how he can really unlock his power and see his value skyrocket.

Final Thoughts

The raw numbers don’t look great for Jones, there’s no denying that. But Cleveland has been one of the better organizations for the past several years, and I’m going to lean toward them figuring out what is going on and correcting it.

The jump in his contact rates is promising and is step one in getting back on track. Now, step two is finding a way to turn on that contact more often instead of simply just putting the ball in play.

The adjustments over the past month and a half give me hope, but at the end of the day if Jones doesn’t start to show more power, his value will continue to take a hit.