A Healthy Back Could Mean a Bounceback for Nolan Jones
A comparable case from 2021 provides optimism that the Rockies outfielder can return to form in 2025.
One of the harder injuries for an MLB player to overcome is a back injury. Elbow injuries that require Tommy John surgery and ACL tears may be more immediately devastating, but a back problem can flare up repeatedly and take months to put in the past.
In the 2023 World Series, Rangers pitcher Max Scherzer had his playoff run cut short due to a back injury that required surgery and cut into his 2024 season as well.
Last year, star Brewers closer Devin Williams dealt with back soreness in the spring that was later revealed to be a stress fracture that kept him out until almost the trade deadline.
Arguably the most famous case of back injuries derailing a career was that of Yankee great Don Mattingly. The six-time All-Star, nine-time Gold Glover, and former AL MVP was likely on track for a Hall of Fame career, but he may never achieve that honor as his congenital back problem limited him to a 14-year career.
Last year, back injuries robbed us of a potentially fun follow-up season for Colorado Rockies outfielder Nolan Jones. After being traded to Colorado by the Guardians ahead of the 2023 season, the former second-rounder broke out with a .297/.389/.542 slash line, 22 doubles, and 22 homers in 106 games.
However, those nagging back injuries resulted in a huge drop in production in 2024. Jones was limited to just 79 games and a lowly .227/.321/.320 slash line with 13 doubles and three homers while hitting the IL twice with the same lower back strain.
Jones returned to finish the season for the Rockies last year and should theoretically be healthy after an offseason of rest. Looking at a comparable MLB case from a few years ago, there’s a reason to believe he can regain his 2023 form this upcoming season.
Why Nolan Jones Can Bounce Back in 2025
In 2021, Brewers outfielder and former NL MVP Christian Yelich played what was arguably the worst season of his 12-year MLB career. He set career lows with a .373 slugging percentage and 101 OPS+ while only amassing 19 doubles, nine homers, and nine steals.
He also managed to play in just 117 games, his lowest amount in a full season to that point since his rookie year. Like for Jones, a lower back strain led to multiple stints on the IL for Yelich that season.
However, from a plate discipline standpoint, Yelich didn’t regress. In fact, he improved in some areas. He remained elite with a 14.7% walk rate (98th percentile, per Baseball Savant) and 18% chase rate (96th percentile) while dropping his whiff rate significantly from 33.6% in 2020 to 24.9% in 2021.
Where the back issues caused him to struggle was in making solid contact. Yelich saw his average launch angle drop dramatically to a career-low of 2.8 degrees, while his barrel rate also dropped to 7.6%, his lowest mark since 2017. It may not be surprising, then, that this resulted in him beating more balls into the ground; his 55.7% ground ball rate was also his highest since 2017.
Going back to Jones, we saw almost the exact same results in 2024. While his plate discipline trends stayed largely consistent with the previous year, again per Baseball Savant, he saw nearly a 10% drop in barrel rate to 5.9% and a two-degree drop in launch angle to 7.8 degrees. Amazingly, his hard-hit rate actually increased over three percent to 44.4%.
But hitting the ball hard doesn’t help as much if you’re not connecting and hitting it into the air. Like Yelich, Jones also saw himself drive more balls into the ground, with his ground ball rate increasing almost 10% to 52.1% and his fly ball rate decreasing nearly the same amount to 20.7%.
If it’s any solace to Rockies fans, Yelich rebounded from that 2021 season. With the help of Brewers trainers, he stayed on the field more consistently for the next couple of years, his numbers normalized, and the extra-base hits returned. He even returned to the All-Star game in 2024, though his season was cut short by yet another back injury that this time required surgery.
Jones, though, is more than six years younger than Yelich, and his body has a chance to bounce back even stronger. With his back injuries behind him, hopefully he can return to being the middle-of-the-order bat the Rockies cherished back in 2023.
Written by
Matt Carroll is a writer for Just Baseball and former site expert at Reviewing the Brew. He studied journalism at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and currently…