Buy or Sell on Top Five Reds Bounce Back Candidates

The Cincinnati Reds were a trendy pick to have a breakout 2024 season. A step forward in 2023, combined with a young core littered with top prospects that were competing in a weaker division looked like the perfect equation for a potential playoff berth. Until the wheels fell off.

Matt McLain was injured before the season and several key players were on the shelf before the team really established an identity. Poor performance coupled with the Noelvi Marte suspension slammed the breaks on what was supposed to be an exciting summer in Cincinnati.

Instead, we saw a repeat of what has recently become the standard – flirting with .500 baseball and coming up short.

Although a major move has not been made, the Reds do have a slightly new look headed into 2025. Veteran manager Terry Francona is now calling the shots, Brady Singer is in the rotation, and often debated Jonathan India is out, Gavin Lux in.

While there’s still at-bats, and time, for a significant addition, the Reds are counting on their current crop of players to make up the difference to transition a bad season into a good season. Sure, we’ve seen this movie before, but maybe not to this degree.

No matter where you stand on the current state of the roster, I think it is fair to say the Reds have several players that should perform better than their 2024 seasons.

Whether it’s derived from past performance or prospect status, the law of averages suggest some combination of these players will be better, therefore making the Reds better. Others however may continue a slide we saw last year, proving they may not be long-term fixtures moving forward.

* Matt McLain was left off this list due to not playing in 2024. Our expectation is for him to pick up where he left off in 2023.

Nick Lodolo – SP

2024 Stats: 4.76 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 9.52 K/9, 2.89 BB/9

Since being selected seventh overall in 2019, Nick Lodolo has suffered injury after injury. His 19 starts as a rookie in 2022 showed promise, but injury ended his 2023 before he could build upon that promise. Last season was underwhelming, but not awful.

Across 21 starts, Lodolo posted a 4.76 ERA and 3.95 FIP. Considering his spot in the rotation and draft selection, you expected more out of him. His strikeout numbers saw a dip from around 12 K/9 down to 9.52 K/9. However, he was still generating similar enough swing and miss numbers on the majority of his pitches, but his curveball was a bit less effective than his best version of the pitch.

When Lodolo’s curveball is at it’s best, his other pitches become that much more effective.

As Lodolo continues to tweak and tinker with his pitch mix, we could see his strikeout numbers come back up. He’s still handling lefties well and doing an fine job against righties.

Nothing is jumping out as a massive red flag outside of his health. If the Reds can get 150+ innings out of him, I think a better season is ahead.

Buying Bounce Back? Yes

Jeimer Candelario – 1B/3B

2024 Stats: .225/.279/.429, 20 HR, 87 wRC+

For the first time in his career, Candelario was a negative fWAR player. His defense, which was never great to begin with, took a massive dip posting a -9 OAA. Although he’s never been a high exit velocity type, he was making some of the weakest contact of his career.

Candelario was making poor swing decisions and often chasing, and missing, more than you would expect from him. Throughout his career he has yo-yoed good and bad seasons. His numbers at Great American Ballpark (.796 OPS) helped to save him from an even worse disaster in year one of a three-year deal.

An injury cut his season short and might have effected his play. I know there’s a better player in there somewhere, but how much better is the question. Was he pressing and trying to put up better power numbers on his new team? Only Candy can answer that.

While I do think he will be better than 2024, I cannot confidently say he will bounce back to the degree his contract suggest. Too much of his value is going to rely on him sneaking balls out of Great American Ball Park, and that’s a tough position to be in. I need to see better swing decisions and improvements against lefties, along with in the field, before my confidence grows.

Buying the Bounce Back? To an extent, but not fully

Alexis Diaz – RP

2024 Stats: 3.99 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 8.79 K/9, 4.95 BB/9

Diaz is a puzzling player. He was not as bad as many made him out to be, but is worse than many think his best version is.

No matter which version of Alexis Diaz is on the mound, he’s going to walk batters. I know we expect closers to come in and get three outs every single time, but Diaz’s command makes him prone to frustrating outings.

I will say, Diaz was better in the second half. He dropped his WHIP from 1.47 to 1.00 while not allowing a run in September. I know better than to read too much into a small sample size with a relief pitcher and need to see more before claiming Alexis Diaz can be counted on to close out games for the Reds.

A big concern was the lack of swing and misses compared to previous years. His fastball had a whiff rate of only 23.7% compared to 30%+ in previous seasons. His slider produced a 29.8% whiff rate compared to 38% the year prior. I will note his production was worse with Luke Maile than Tyler Stephenson, and Jose Trevino has a better chance of getting better results.

I think Diaz is what he is and some years the baseline numbers will look better than they should be, and others not so much. A pitcher who does not generate groundballs is not the best fit for the Reds ballpark.

Buying the Bounce Back? No

Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 1B

2024 Stats: .190/.220/.293, 2 HR, 33 wRC+

Outside of the next guy on this list, Encarnacion-Strand was the biggest disappoint to me. The Reds needed an answer at first base and his power potential was severely missed in the lineup.

After posting a .270/.328/.477 slash with 13 home runs across 63 games as a rookie, Encarnacion-Strand struggled to stay afloat before, and tell me if you have heard this before, an injury ended his season.

One thing to remember about Encarnacion-Strand is that he is a swinger. Throughout the minors he showed a rare breed of chasing, but making enough contact to get away with it. A unique hitter who will have to shift that dial a bit, but can still be effective enough despite his approach.

I do think his injury played a role in him never getting his feet under him. If he can walk around a 6%-7% clip, and get closer to a .200 ISO, he’ll provide a boost offensively. I have never been much of a believer in him defensively leaving his bat to carry his value. I cannot give up on his ability to crush baseballs and think he’ll be an asset to the Reds.

Buying the Bounce Back? Yes

Noelvi Marte – 3B

2024 Stats: .210/.248/.301, 4 HR, 46 wRC+

By now you know the story of 2024 Noelvi Marte. No need for me to recap each shortcoming and poor decision. If you are in the camp of thinking it was just a perfect disater and a fresh start to the season can yield better results, I respect that line of thinking. Reasonable enough path for that being true. But, I’m not there.

Marte posted disastrous numbers in his 12 game stint in Triple-A Louisville before doing more of the same in Cincinnati. Not only was he lost at the plate, but mindless play in the field made me wonder if his focus was 100% there. A .653 OPS in winter ball has not done much to boost my confidence.

I’m not giving up on Marte just yet. He’s only 23 years old with less than a full seasons at-bats in Double and Triple A combined. I’m less confident than I have ever been in him, but think more time in the minors can help him iron out some flaws.

Prove again you can do it in Triple-A and show you belong in the big leagues.

Buying the Bounce Back? No

Final Thoughts

The Reds strategy to rely on several disappointing 2024 seasons to turn into better 2025 seasons is not all that crazy. Obviously, I do not think each player is going to produce at their best level, but some will. To think all will put up disastrous seasons again feels too pessimistic to me.

On the other hand, some players will not be as good as they were in 2024. Considering so few players overachieved, I think the team is due for a positive regression, as a whole. Even if that is true, more needs to be done in order to compete for the division or a wild card berth.

President of Baseball Operations, Nick Krall, mentioned their new TV deal will provide a “slight” increase in revenue and should allow the team to pursue another option to improve the roster.

If that does lead to an addition, the caliber of that player could be the difference between a disappointing or exciting offseason.