The Cincinnati Reds Take a Chance By Trading for Ke’Bryan Hayes

In a surprising move, the Reds strike a deal with a divisional foe, bringing in Ke’Bryan Hayes in exchange for shortstop prospect Sammy Stufura and reliever Taylor Rogers.

Hayes, 28, comes with a contract paying him $7 million in 2026 and 2027 before sliding to $8 million in 2028 and 2029 with a $12 million club option in 2030.

How Hayes Helps the Reds Now

I don’t think many picked Hayes as a fit for the Reds. Not only because the Pirates are in the same division, but because the Reds needed an upgrade offensively and Hayes is far from fitting that label. After posting a 59 wRC+ in 2024, Hayes has struggled once again this season to a lousy 57 wRC+ as his power continues to be a non-factor.

Hayes has always been one of those players that many thought could unlock his offensive potential, but we are still waiting for the breakout now in year six. I’m sure the Reds, who have shifted towards a more contact approach, like that Hayes doesn’t strikeout much and often puts the ball in play. The problem is he doesn’t walk much either, and too much of his contact is on the ground.

Could a new organization unlock something in a player? Change a swing, make a tweak here or there. Sure. But, counting on Hayes to provide anything other than around league average offense at any point in this contract still feels like a stretch.

Although the bat is not going to help, Hayes’ defense at third is going to make a huge difference. Year in and year out, Hayes ranks as one of, if not the best, third basemen in baseball. This season, he has 15 outs above average at third, which ranks first amongst third basemen. A massive difference compared to Noelvi Marte and Santiago Espinal.

Defensive improvement is welcomed, especially when you go from well below average (Marte) to elite. In a vacuum, the Reds went from players at third who are not elite at anything to a player who is elite at something. That alone is a plus, but not enough to drastically change the team’s trajectory.

Now, let’s say the Reds continue to make moves and add a bat either to the outfield or first base. Someone who actually makes an impact and changes the look of this team by inserting someone into the middle of the order. Now the Hayes trade looks like a fine ancillary move.

Keep in mind, acquiring Hayes is a long term play.

How Hayes Impacts the Future

The Reds were obviously tired of poor defense at an important position. This trade means Marte is likely to see a lot more time in the outfield, which I think is better for the short and long-term outlook. Also, top prospects Sal Stewart and Cam Collier are not going to be relied upon to fill third, a position where neither is best suited.

Another move that seems off the table is shifting Elly De La Cruz off shortstop. Elly has tons of talents, but iffy fundamentals at times, leading to errors and misplays that are frustrating. By all indications, the Reds will continue to work with Elly at short and keep him at the position moving forward.

Taking on a deal with this many years, even at a low dollar amount, is risky. I said this past week that the Reds needed to take a risk, and they certainly did. Now the pressure is on to turn Hayes back into the hitter we saw at the beginning of his career when he was closer to league average.

The Pirates have not been great at hitter development, which is at least worth noting. Although the Reds have not been lighting the world on fire in that department, either. Getting Hayes to a level where he’s not a complete loss at the plate would be a big win considering his elite defense. Bottom of the order bat that makes an impact in the field is perfectly fine.

My greatest concern would be Hayes not reaching that level, offensively, and now the Reds are stuck with several years of Hayes’ contract. Even if the AAV is low, if Cincinnati has to cut ties, it would still require a decent chunk of change due to the term on his deal.

What the Reds Gave Up

Let’s go ahead and get the veteran out of the way. Taylor Rogers, whom the Reds acquired this past winter, was not nearly as good as his 2.45 ERA might lead you to think. He was walking a career-high 5.18 BB/9 and rarely gave anyone confidence when he entered the game. Getting him off the roster was inevitable, rather through trade or DFA.

Sammy Stafura, who was ranked as the Reds’ eighth-best prospect, was the Reds’ second-round pick in the 2023 draft. The shortstop was in Low-A, slashing .262/.393/.411 with four home runs on the season and 28 stolen bases.

Stafura is a better prospect than I would have anticipated getting moved for Hayes, but at the end of the day was expendable for the Reds. Not only is Elly De La Cruz holding down short, but Edwin Arroyo, Tyson Lewis, Leo Balcazar, and 2025 first-rounder Steele Hall all play the position, with the first three further along in their development.

Honestly, I think moving Stafura is worth it for Hayes. At the very least, you get elite defense and can roll the dice on turning Hayes into a better offensive player. Cincinnati has enough infield prospects that trading one away shouldn’t be a problem.

Team’s with playoff aspirations shouldn’t blink about moving a guy like Stafura, regardless if you think Hayes is a difference maker or not.

Final Thoughts

I’m glad the Reds took a risk, although the type of risk I had in mind was not one who can’t hit and has years of term on his contract. Again, if the front office does not add more of an impact bat, then the deadline falls short. If they do, I like the addition of Hayes, even if it makes me worried about how it will turn out.

A lot of pressure will be put on the front office and coaching staff because of this move. Change something and unlock offensive potential? You look brilliant. Hayes continues to add nothing at the plate? Nick Krall’s resume might need updating.

At the end of the day, the Reds improved in a big way somewhere – defensively. It is a move that I did not think the Reds would be willing to do simply because it wasn’t the safe move. But you know what? Good. Safe moves haven’t gotten them much of anything, either way.