Cincinnati Reds Rule 5 and 40-Man Roster Outlook
With Rule 5 Draft protection in mind, here are several players the Reds could add to the 40-man roster, along with a look at the current roster and who could be removed.
The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a disappointing 75-win season that failed to build on any momentum from their 2025 playoff berth. While Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart made headlines throughout the season, the Reds proved they weren’t deep enough in either the lineup or the rotation.
With the 2026 season now behind us, we can shift our focus to every Reds fan’s favorite time of year: the offseason. It’s a time to construct your dream scenarios that will certainly pull the Reds out of the depths of the NL Central and past teams like the Cubs or Brewers, who are currently in the World Series.
While I’ll spend plenty of time running through possible offseason scenarios throughout the winter, the best place to start is by discussing the Rule 5 Draft and the 40-man roster. Each December, MLB holds a Rule 5 Draft that gives players a chance to escape being trapped in the minor leagues of one organization. To be protected from the draft, a player must be added to the 40-man roster.
As you know, 40-man rosters are ever-changing. Players moving on and off throughout the season make roster management a continuous adjustment. Today, I’ll walk through several players who could be added ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, along with the current state of the 40-man roster and who could be removed.
Rule 5 Players to Protect
Cincinnati got ahead of a few decisions this year by adding Héctor Rodríguez and Carlos Jorge, along with others, to the 40-man roster during the season. Cam Collier is by far the biggest name on the Rule 5-eligible list, but he wasn’t the best performer last year.
Carter Graham – 1B/3B/OF
2026 Stats (A+/AA 126 G): .300/.421/.565, 29 HR, 151 wRC+
I don’t think there’s a more unexpected breakout in 2026 within the Reds’ system than Carter Graham. The 2023 eighth-round draft pick had been a non-prospect throughout his young career before seeing a massive jump in power, hitting 20 more home runs than he did in 2025.
I was wary of believing the High-A numbers, but what we saw in Double-A proved that something has changed. Across 60 games with Chattanooga, Graham hit 12 home runs, walked at a 13.5% clip, and posted a 132 wRC+. The Reds have spread him out rather evenly between third base, first base, and the outfield, and he’s been playing mostly third base in the Arizona Fall League.
There’s no reason why the Reds shouldn’t protect Graham. Cincinnati is not in a position where its 40-man roster is bursting at the seams with talent, and the Reds need a breakout prospect. Graham might be their best hope. If Spencer Steer is traded at some point, Graham could be an option to see playing time throughout the season.
Prediction: Protect
Cam Collier – 1B/3B
2026 Stats (AA 135 G): .209/.286/.368, 18 HR, 67 wRC+
The Reds selected Collier with the 18th pick in the 2022 draft after he reclassified to become eligible. Summarizing his minor league career is difficult. The power potential has not shown up consistently, as he hit only four home runs in 95 games in 2025. In 2026, he launched 18 home runs in 135 games but posted only a .160 ISO. A player who isn’t a very good defender and who I don’t think will stick at third base is going to have to hit for significant power to become a major leaguer.
His 2026 season was very disappointing, as he slashed .209/.286/.368 in his second stint in Double-A. Whenever I watched him last year, something just looked off. I know he’s going to strike out a lot, and the margin for error is slim when he doesn’t offer much defensively. I also don’t think he’ll hit for average as he continues to climb through the system.
Collier turned 22 this winter, and I do expect him to be added to the 40-man roster. There’s simply too much invested in him, and enough talent that you can’t risk him being selected. The issue is that I don’t think he’s close to being ready for the majors. We might be looking at a situation where Collier is taking a “redshirt” year on the 40-man roster.
Prediction: Protect
Carlos Sanchez– SS/2B
2026 Stats (A+/AA 127 G): .270/.376/.440, 16 HR, 23 SB, 113 wRC+
Carlos Sanchez was one of the players who really caught my eye in the first half of the season. A lefty bat who plays primarily shortstop but has the ability to play third and second base (he’s played the outfield as well), Sanchez has the tools to eventually become a major leaguer. I really like his swing, but I think he’s still a bit raw. You can tell he’s starting to fill out, and I think more power will come.
He hit a bit of a learning curve once he got to Double-A and saw better spin for the first time, and that’s okay. There’s room for Sanchez to grow, and I do think he’s going to need some time in the minors before he’s major-league ready. But after already hitting two home runs in the Arizona Fall League, you have to wonder if other teams are starting to notice.
This is a tough one for me. Personally, I think Sanchez is a better prospect than Leo Balcazar and Carlos Jorge, who were both added to the 40-man roster within the past year. I would protect Sanchez, but I don’t think the Reds will. I see this as a case where Cincinnati will try to get him through the Rule 5 Draft, which worries me.
Prediction: Not Protected
Jay Allen II – OF
2026 Stats (AA/AAA 113 G): .270/.376/.440, 16 HR, 23 SB, 113 wRC+
The 30th overall pick in the 2021 draft has taken a slower path, but he looked much better in 2026. A true center fielder who plays good defense, Allen brings speed and enough power to keep pitchers honest. He’s always been known as a great athlete, but it’s taken a while for his bat to come around.
After spending all of 2025 in Double-A, Allen returned to Chattanooga and played 90 games this year, slashing .280/.374/.483 with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases, earning him a promotion to Triple-A Louisville. The adjustment to Triple-A was not pretty, but I wouldn’t read too much into a 23-game sample size.
Injuries have played a role in his slower development, and although I think Allen is a talented player, I don’t see him being protected. The good news is that I also don’t think he’ll be drafted, giving Allen another year to develop and potentially become an option in the future.
Prediction: Not Protected
Jose Acuna – P
2026 Stats (AA/AAA 124.2 IP): 4.48 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 8.95 K/9, 4.55 BB/9
The Tyler Naquin trade in 2022 already netted the Reds Héctor Rodríguez, but Cincinnati also got Acuña in the deal. Acuña is an arm I’ve been intrigued by for the past few seasons, although I would prefer a move to the bullpen. The Reds have tried to keep him as a starter for long enough, and I think his stuff would play better in shorter stints.
I think his fastball is major-league quality and works well at the top of the zone. I’m concerned that the rest of his repertoire isn’t good enough for him to stick as a starting pitcher, and the Reds could use some bullpen help. If a move to the bullpen helps him increase his swing-and-miss ability, like I think it could, the Reds might have something here.
What’s working in Acuña’s favor is that the Reds seem to have open 40-man spots for pitchers. There are three to five guys I could easily remove from this 40-man roster without the Reds feeling it one bit. However, I think the Reds will try to sneak him through.
Prediction: Not Protected
Hunter Parks – P
2026 Stats (AA/AAA 55.1 IP): 5.20 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 13.17 K/9, 6.67 BB/9
Hunter Parks comes with the same red flag you see with so many young relievers: his command is nonexistent. But I just can’t get past how good his swing-and-miss stuff can be. A fastball-slider combo that has a chance to be a weapon out of the bullpen is exactly what the Reds need.
Do I think there’s a high probability Parks stands out as a reliever in the majors? Not really. His stuff isn’t as good as Connor Phillips’, and he struggles with similar issues, but he’s worth a chance. The Reds desperately need somebody out of the bullpen who can strike batters out, and Parks can do just that. With a new pitching coach on the way, the hope is that they can iron out Parks’ command and at least make him a minor league depth option.
Prediction: Protect
Other Rule 5 Eligible Players: Michael Trautwein (C), Cade Hunter (C), Connor Burns (C), Diego Omana (C), Ruben Ibarra (1B), Francisco Urbaez (Utl), Ricky Cabrera (Inf), Dominic Pitelli (Inf), Yerlin Confidan (OF), Austin Hendrick (OF), Johnny Ascanio (OF), Nick Sando (P), Kevin Abel (P), Nate Peterson (P), Jared Lyons (P), Johnathan Harmon (P), Ben Wereski (P), Anyer Laureano (P), Nestor Lorant (P), Javier Rivera (P), Reynardo Cruz (P), JeanPierre Ortiz (P), Ty Floyd (P), David Lorduy (P), Ovis Portes (P), Cody Adcock (P), Johnathan Lavallee (P), Cameron Cotter (P), Brody Jessee (P), Bryce Hubbart (P), Jacob Edwards (P), Drew Pestka (P), Graham Osman (P), Logan Tanner (P), Ben Brutti (P), Abraham Gaitan (P), Jesus Colina (P)
Every year, there are surprise protections, and I’m sure somebody from the list above whom I didn’t discuss will be protected. I can say for sure it’s not going to be Austin Hendrick, the former first-round draft pick. His swing is a mess, and the production has been rather underwhelming. Anyer Laureano has electric stuff and made a name for himself in 2024, but he missed all of 2025 due to injury and struggled once he returned this season.
Javi Rivera, Nestor Lorant, and Ovis Portes are unlikely to be drafted, although they have shown flashes. Connor Burns is a great defender who cannot hit, so I think he’s safe as well.
40-Man Roster Outlook
Of course, adding any of these players to the 40-man roster will likely mean that some players have to come off. Any players currently on the 60-day IL will have to be activated before being placed back on the 60-day IL, impacting Hunter Greene, Spencer Steer, and Blake Dunn.
The Reds will naturally have some spots open up once free agency begins, but they’ll essentially replace those openings by adding major league players. There’s going to be a lot of movement over the next few weeks, so today I want to focus on removing players who are not free agents.
Before we dive in, I want to address a couple of players. Matt McLain has received support time after time from manager Terry Francona, making him an unlikely candidate to be moved, even with his struggles at the plate. While you might consider Nick Lodolo a trade candidate, the Reds’ lack of pitching depth essentially corners them into a position where they have to keep him.
Lastly, Ke’Bryan Hayes. I’ve voiced my displeasure with Hayes enough, and at this point, I think we can all agree he’s not a good use of a roster spot. However, the Reds are tied to him for three more years, and I doubt they’ll cut him, even if it makes the most sense. At this point, you just need to pray that he somehow improves at the plate.
Potential Trade, Cut Candidates
Cut Candidates: Juan Brito, Will Banfield, Leo Balcazar, Zach McCambley, Connor Phillips, Carson Spiers, Brandon Williamson, Chase Solesky
What will your reaction be if any of these players are cut? You wouldn’t lose any sleep, right? The lack of pitching depth likely means Brandon Williamson gets to survive again, although he hasn’t necessarily earned that opportunity. Connor Phillips had a two-week span in 2025 that got everybody excited before returning to the same issues he’s always had. A change in pitching coaches and philosophy could mean the end of the Phillips experiment.
The two infielders on this list — Brito and Balcazar — could fall victim to the numbers game. Cincinnati quickly signed Oswaldo Cabrera for next season, although that doesn’t guarantee him a spot. I do think he’s higher on the depth chart, though. Edwin Arroyo will continue to get a chance, and Stewart, McLain, Hayes, and De La Cruz don’t seem to be going anywhere.
If I were the Reds, I would add a legitimate major leaguer at either second or third base, even if the Hayes fit makes third base a bit awkward. Matt McLain and Edwin Arroyo need better competition at second base, allowing Cabrera to be a bench utility piece at best.
I do think Balcazar’s spot is safe for now, but it shouldn’t be so safe that it prevents the Reds from adding a quality major leaguer if it comes down to that.
Trade Candidates: Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte
Outfield production has been a mess for the past couple of seasons, and the Reds have not shown that it’s a priority. The Noelvi Marte situation has reached a point where a divorce is needed. He made zero adjustments last season, and going to Triple-A did him no favors. Héctor Rodríguez deserves some runway, and Blake Dunn is a more useful player than Marte at this point.
Even with JJ Bleday coming back, the Reds need to add to the outfield. In my opinion, Marte and Jorge are the low men on the totem pole, and Jorge’s defensive ability in center field gives him a leg up.
The only reason I have Spencer Steer on this list is because of the rumors around the trade deadline that he could potentially be moved. He’s a quality player but an odd fit. His profile doesn’t really fit first base, and Sal Stewart seems to have claimed that spot. His defense makes him a bad fit in left field, and I’d rather not see him play second base. Want to use him as a bench utility player? Eh, that’s fine. But if you can get a player back in a trade who is a better roster fit, I think the Reds will explore that option.
Final Thoughts
The Reds continuing to cycle mediocre players through this organization is a trend that I don’t think will stop this winter. We haven’t seen significant changes within the organization for some time, and expecting that to happen now would simply be wishful thinking.
At some point, they need to pick an identity. This isn’t a talentless roster, but it is a directionless one. With the number of needs they have this winter and the continued restrictions on payroll, the Reds are going to have to get creative to improve.
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