The Reds Should Look to Buy for the Future at the Deadline

One of the most important understandings you must have when discussing roster construction is where the team is in their life cycle. Are they in a complete bottom out rebuild like the White Sox? World Series contender like Baltimore? Descending but not dead like the Blue Jays? Or ascending and building, like the Cincinnati Reds.

Whether or not you believe in the Reds direction doesn’t really matter because the front office does. They have structured a team with budding young talent with several years of control. You might not believe in every players abilities but, for the most part, the Reds have the building of what they view as a core.

Essentially, the Reds are not inline for a rebuild for several seasons. That’s how the roster is constructed, now it’s up to the players to prove it. So, where do the Reds stand not only now but in the future, and what needs exist?

The rotation probably will not need a significant upgrade. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, amongst others, are under team control for years. The team has invested top draft picks in college arms and has several prospects and back end options.

The infield was thought of as crowded before injuries thinned the herd a bit. Sure, a back up or utility guy can be added. But, for the most part there’s quality talent and intriguing prospects now and into the future. At catcher, the Reds could use a better back up of 1a/1b situation.

Looking at the outfield, and potential DH, is where the greatest need is now and into the future. Will Benson, Jake Fraley, Stuart Fairchild, and *insert all the AAAA options* simply don’t have as high of a ceiling as the infield or rotation. I like TJ Friedl but he’s dealt with injuries in his career so the fallback plan needs to be stronger. Their outfield prospects are not exactly high-end prospects either. If there’s a position group you could look to really upgrade I think it’s in the outfield.

While I think the most likely outcome is staying the course with a couple of minor moves, there are other options. No, they are not the most likely path, but let’s have some fun and discuss a couple of outfielders who could fit on this team.

Outfield Options at the Deadline

The way this team is currently constructed is with a plethora of platoon players. Fraley, Benson, Fairchild, and the AAAA options. Personally, I think Fraley and Benson on the same roster in the future is a bit too redundant. You have to upgrade and replace at bats somewhere and the best version of each player combined with their role is too similar.

The outfield needs for 2024 and for 2025 (and beyond) are very similar. If there is a bat that is available at this deadline that helps you in the future it makes sense to try to acquire. Yes, you could wait until the offseason and see what the free agent pool looks like (hello, Anthony Santandar) but you are leaving more things outside of your control by doing so. So, here are some potential names.

Fun, but Needs a Bounce back: Randy Arozarena

2024 Stats: .202/.309/.362, 12 HR, 98 wRC+

Contract: Team control through ’26, $8 million in ’24

No doubt, Arozarena has had a very down year. His name has been swirling around trade talks as we all know the Rays are not big spenders and his $8 million price tag will increase in his second year of arbitration this offseason. Arozarena has consistently put up over a 120 wRC+ throughout his career and I’m willing to buy into a down year as opposed to a broken player.

Even with his struggles, Arozarena will not come cheap. Cincinnati will not be the only team interested and you have to wonder just how much prospect capital are they willing to move. I am not too worried about his contract or money situation as I think what he will make is fair for a player with his track record.

Arozarena could slot into a corner outfield spot immediately and also fill time at DH. He’s not a great defender, but defense has not proven to be the highest priority from the front office.

Boring, but Better: Taylor Ward

2024 Stats: .228/.312/.401, 14 HR, 100 wRC+

Contract: Control through ’26, $4.8 million ’24

The Angels have been nothing but a duster fire. Getting Taylor Ward out of there and into Great American Ballpark could be a sneaky good addition for now and the future. Personally, I think Ward is a better player than he has shown this season. While I think the best version of himself is better than Benson and Fraley, I am not sure just how much better it is.

This particular move would all come down to cost to acquire. If the return is not going to hurt too much, I say you at least strongly consider it. Ward could see a significant uptick in production if he was in a more hitters friendly environment. For example, he’d have 20 home runs if he played his games at Great American Ballpark. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it, but you get my point.

Flashy But Frustrating: Jazz Chisholm

2024 Stats: .249/.321/.407, 12 HR, 102 wRC+

Contract: Control through ’26, $2.62 Million ’24

Let me begin by saying I love watching Jazz play. Him and Elly on the same field would be electric. A blend of power and speed that can slot into center, or second, and add a solid bat to the lineup. There’s no doubt Jazz has the tools to be a plus player, but there’s also a lot of noise.

Injury history has to at least be noted here. On top of that, there’s some reports of his personality or clubhouse presence that have not exactly been stellar. You’ll have to deal with some swing and miss and concerning enough batted ball data.

Even with all that said, the Reds are going to have to eventually take a risk. No player is perfect and Cincinnati does not shell out the money to sign the players who have few flaws. If you are going to roll the dice, doing so on a player with these tools is worth it in my opinion.

Jonathan India Situation

What do to with Jonathan India has been a topic amongst Reds fans for quite some time. After two average seasons, India has been scorching hot for well over a month and a half and currently has a 125 wRC+. He’s been a much better hitter while also improving defensively.

With Matt McLain likely the second baseman, when healthy, now and into the future, should the Reds capitalize and sell India at his highest value?

Well, I do not think it’s that simple. The reason people are pounding the table to move India is because they do not think this level of play is sustainable. Be honest, do you think this is the India you can count on going forward? Or do you want to move him because he’s hot and McLain will return?

Now, put yourself in a buyers shoes. They can see the same trends we are seeing and will use it in their decision making as well. How many GM’s have second base as the highest priority at the deadline? How may think India is really what he’s shown recently and how many will point to the past two seasons of data?

At the end of the day, I think a package for India, at this deadline, will be underwhelming.

Therefore, I think the Reds keep India. He’s more valuable to this team as they are still in a playoff race than the potential return. Considering he’s still signed through next year, they do not have to trade him now. If he continues this play through the end of the year you could argue the offseason return is better than the deadline return.

Pieces the Reds Should Be Willing to Deal

I try to never marry myself to any relief pitcher. They come and go, have up and down seasons, and for the most part are the easiest hole to plug at a deadline. Because of that, moving one out will not cause me a loss of sleep.

Fernando Cruz, who’s admittedly been up and down, has been rumored to have some trade interest. He’s a good pitcher with plenty of swing and miss stuff and an incredible splitter. He’s also not a player I think the Reds can’t live without.

At 34 years old, I’m comfortable moving him, especially if the return helps recover from capital from a “buying” move. You can apply this thought process with just about any relief pitcher on the roster. I would love the Reds to keep Nick Martinez but that $12 million player option could be turned down. If they get a feeling that he won’t be back, he could be moved.

Frankie Montas is another pitcher who would have some level of interest. To me, he’s more of a back end option to a playoff team instead of a pitcher you’d start in a playoff series. Even if the Reds eat some of the money, how much of a return do you really get? There’s other back end options out there that aren’t making as much money and could be had for similar returns.

Conclusion

You might have noticed how little the Reds really have to move at the deadline. Some bullpen arms and India is about all they have to offer. So, what’s the point in selling? The team is three games back in the Wild Card.

No, I do not think you go full buyers mode and acquire rentals and move out multiple top tier prospects, but adding on the edges and being open to adding a legit outfielder should absolutely be in play. Do not waste a year where you have relatively good health from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott.

Cincinnati has seen zero playoff success in the past 30 years and if the front office truly sees this core as the group of players to change that, then help them out where it makes sense.