Cedric Mullins Off to a Great Start as Uncertain Offseason Looms

The center field position is one of the most sought-after positions on the field. For Orioles fans, center field has a special hold on several generations, from Bumbry to Anderson to Jones.

With their most recent first round selections of Enrique Bradfield Jr and Vance Honeycutt, fans are looking forward to the future of that position.

In the present, the man who calls center field home is the longest-tenured player on the team. However, his tenure may be coming to an end, and he knows it. 

Cedric Mullins has called Baltimore home since 2018. Orioles’ fans watched as Adam Jones handed the center field mantle over to him as a rookie. We watched as he transformed from a disastrous switch-hitter to an All-Star starter who put up a 30-30 season in 2021.

The O's 30-30 club has one member.

And his name is Cedric Mullins. 👏 pic.twitter.com/xHnhKqD5ex

— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) September 24, 2021

While Mullins has not reached those same heights since, he continues to be one of the more consistent all-around starting center fielders in the game. The question, however, is how that will be valued when he hits the free agent market this winter?

Mullins is in the last year of his arbitration, set to hit free agency after the 2025 season. From how he started this year, Mullins is well aware of needing to perform in his platform year.  

Getting the Contract Year Started on a High Note

As of April 8, Mullins is off to a scorching hot start with a .308/.426/.615 slash line, good enough for a 1.041 OPS. His start is headlined by his performances on both Opening Days.

Tied for the team lead in hits:
Mullins

Tied for the team lead in runs scored:
Mullins

Tied for the team lead in doubles:
Mullins

Tied for the team lead in HRs:
Mullins

Tied for the team lead in walks:
Mullins

Team leader in RBI, XBH & total bases – you guessed it:
Mullins

— Orioles Statistics (@OriolesStatist1) April 9, 2025

In Toronto, Mullins became the third Oriole of all-time to hit two home runs on Opening Day, joining Brooks Robinson, Sam Horn, (and eventually Adley Rutschman).

CEDRIC MULLINS AGAIN!

Are you not entertained?! pic.twitter.com/GLaluyV1kF

— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2025

On Opening Day in Baltimore, Mullins knocked in four RBIs, joining Aaron Judge as the only player in the league with double-digit RBIs at the time. This kind of production for a team that will be missing Colton Cowser for the foreseeable future is crucial. 

Last season, Mullins posted a 2.3 fWAR across 147 games played. Through only 11 games played, Mullins has put up nearly a third of that same WAR, accumulated an fWAR of 0.7.

It is unreasonable to expect him to sustain this production, but if he can get closer to being the guy he was back in 2021, when he was a six-win player, he could be in for a massive payday.

Which Version of Cedric Mullins Will Hit the Market?

Orioles’ fans have had a front-row seat to the rollercoaster that is the Mullins show. His 2021 season will not be forgotten in Baltimore. Watching him take the field in Colorado as an All-Star game starter, their first since Manny Machado’s farewell in 2018, was the first signal that the dark times may be coming to an end.

In that 2021 season, Mullins posted a top-25 WRC+ in baseball at 136, a below-league average strikeout rate of 18.5%, and a hard-hit rate of 39.4%. In fact, Mullins posted career-best marks pretty much across the board in 2021 and has not matched those benchmarks since.

Since that season, however, Mullins has been a shell of the player we saw in 2021. Mullins has averaged a 104 WRC+ and a .717 OPS across those three seasons.

After reaching 30 home runs in 2021, Mullins has hovered closer to half that total every year since, averaging just over 16 home runs per season.

In 2024, Mullins managed a 33.4% hard-hit rate, the worst of all qualified hitters on the Orioles.

With this downtick in production, what could be causing this resurgence? Here are a couple of ideas. 

Fixing the Stance 

For the Orioles, last year’s second half in terms of offense was miserable to watch. No spark was able to ignite the offense back to its pre-all-star break self. However, one of the few Orioles who had a solid second half was Mullins, and here’s why. 

The other day while on TikTok, I got a video from Orioles content producer PigTownSports on my for you page. In the video, he analyzed a change he saw in Mullins’ hands when batting.

These images show Mullins’ hands before the All-Star break last year.

This images shows Mullins’ hands during the 2024 Wild Card Series.

In the first half of last year, Mullins hands started by his shoulders. As a result, Mullins hit .214. In the second half of the year, including his solid playoff performance, Mullins’ hands moved up towards his head. As a result, Mullins had a .266 batting average. 

Perhaps new hitting coach Cody Asche has helped Mullins build on a formula that worked well in the second half.  

Free Agency Looming 

At the end of the 2025 season Mullins will become a free agent. Without a contract extension, Mullins is set to be the second starting outfielder in two seasons to hit the open market.

Like Anthony Santander, Mullins could be let go in favor of a younger piece. With the left field wall being moved in, the Orioles do not need as strong of a defender as they used to. This could free up Cowser to play center field, the position he occupied in college and through the minors.

Cowser’s move to center would allow offseason acquiree Tyler O’Neill to regular spot where in left field, where he won two Gold Gloves with the Cardinals in 2020 and 2021. 

The Orioles also have several pieces in the farm system that could be on the doorstep of the majors come the end of the year. Jud Fabian has steadily moved up the farm system, and even if the bat takes time to be MLB ready, the glove will give him value with the big-league team.

And now Jud Fabian launched his second home run of the season! It's 6-3, Tides, in the 8th. pic.twitter.com/lSBCOfGrkE

— Norfolk Tides (@NorfolkTides) April 4, 2025

Enrique Bradfield Jr and Vance Honeycutt will also be drawing some attention deeper down in the minors. While Bradfield and Honeycutt have more work to do compared to Fabian, strong years from them could put them in the back of the minds of the Orioles’ front office.  

And we know how much the O’s love their prospects. 

For Mullins, it may be evident that it is unlikely that he will be calling Baltimore home come next season. Therefore, Mullins is doing everything he can to ensure he has a favorable contract to sign in the offseason.

For motivation, all he has to do is look at his former outfield partner in Santander. In his contract year, he led the Orioles in homers and RBIs, resulting in a $18.5 million AAV contract. A solid pay day is possible for Mullins, whether it is from the Orioles or not. 

The Rest of the Way 

While a similar season to his 2021 performance would be welcomed, the Orioles cannot bank on Mullins to, to quote David Goggins, “carry the boats.”

While questions will arise about what the Orioles are going to do with center field after this year, at least fans in Baltimore get the chance to appreciate Mullins’ play for one more season.

They get another year to watch the web gems, the stolen bases, and the sneaky power from a homegrown player who was drafted by the Orioles in 2015, endured a rebuild, and made it out the other side to help some very competitive teams in Baltimore.

If this truly is his last season to be played at Camden Yards, you better believe Mullins intends to make some more good memories along the way, as the Orioles look to make the playoffs for the third year in a row, with hopes of making a deep run once they are there.